The Philadelphia 76ers picked up their first win of the season Tuesday night after starting the year 0-18. Our Insiders debate if "the process" is working in Philly, how responsible the NBA is for the franchise's current predicament and more.
1. The 76ers' plan is working or not working as intended?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Not working as intended. This is tough, because it all depends on how they perceive the drafted players on their roster. Are these building blocks, or just stopgaps until the shining savior descends from the heavens to rescue the franchise? Either way, things haven't worked out as planned. Joel Embiid has yet to see the floor, Nerlens Noel has regressed and Jahlil Okafor has had the strangest, most police-blotter-filled debut month of any lottery pick in recent memory.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Not working as intended. The goal all along has been to add superstar talent, and it's not clear the Sixers have landed any building blocks through the draft. At the same time, part of the reason to amass as many picks as possible is the unlikelihood of any individual pick becoming a star. So Philadelphia is one ping-pong-ball bounce away from changing things.
David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: Not working as intended, on two important levels. The players they hope will one day be stars are nowhere near the path that leads to stardom, and their plan to teach elite athletes how to shoot has fallen flat. However, both can change.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Working as intended. We're conditioned in this microwave society to think these rebuilds should happen overnight, but they take time. Sacramento and Minnesota haven't been in the playoffs in more than a decade, and we're two and a half years into general manager Sam Hinkie's tenure. The optics are bad, but this could turn around quickly with their assets in hand.
Chad Ford, ESPN Insider: Not working as intended. Three years into "the process," the Sixers don't have much to show for their losses. By now, the hope was to have drafted at least two cornerstones to build around. Had the Sixers drafted better, they could've had Noel, Giannis Antetokounmpo (taken four spots after Michael Carter-Williams), Marcus Smart (two after Embiid), Zach LaVine (one after Dario Saric) and Kristaps Porzingis (one after Okafor). I think we'd feel much different about their future with that starting five.
2. How many future All-Stars are on the Philly roster?
Elhassan: Optimistically, one? Between Okafor and, if healthy, Embiid, there ought to be at least one All-Star campaign between the two of them, but the lack of a dedicated center position combined with the rise of young frontcourt players in the East like Andre Drummond and Antetokounmpo could crowd them out -- if they ever achieve that level worthy of All-Star consideration.
Pelton: One. I think Okafor is likely to make it at some point given his impressive counting stats. I also think Noel is actually the Sixers' best long-term prospect, but he's unlikely to be an All-Star because of his defense-oriented game. I'm skeptical of Embiid reaching that level if gets healthy.
Thorpe: I'd guess two are good possibilities, though not yet probabilities. Okafor is likely going to be a 20 and 10 machine in two years and will earn a nod at some point after that, and Noel could make it as an elite defender if he even becomes competent on offense -- years from now. I'm a fan of both, and I love Jerami Grant, too.
Haberstroh: 1.5. They're too young to project with any real certainty, but I'll say between Okafor, Embiid, Noel and Saric (not to mention two potential top-five picks in the 2016 draft), they'll have at least one. Little known fact: About 40 percent of top-5 picks eventually become All-Stars, so if the Sixers have four of them on the roster by next season, that's an expected value of about 1.6 right there. Math!
Ford: None. Noel is the closest. He's a talented defensive big man, but he struggles offensively and is a poor fit next to Okafor. Okafor is a talented offensive big man, but he struggles defensively and is a poor fit next to Noel. Even with Noel off the floor, it feels like Okafor's game isn't suited to the up-tempo style the Sixers really want to play. Embiid is injured, and it's uncertain if he'll ever be the same. It's unclear when exactly Saric will come. Their best bet will be winning the lottery in 2016 and grabbing Ben Simmons.
3. Fact or fiction: The Sixers are closer to title contention now than in May 2013.
Note: Sam Hinkie took over as 76ers president and GM in May 2013.
Elhassan: Fact, in the same way that me being on an airplane makes me closer to Saturn than being on the ground. But you have to acknowledge they are better situated now than they were in 2013 to add pieces that can eventually bring them to the promised land.
Pelton: Fact. They're certainly not as close as they would like to be, but again, they've put themselves in position to potentially have two top-5 picks next June, and those players are more likely to be part of a Philly title team than anyone on the roster before the process.
Thorpe: Fact. At any point, the Sixers can decide to evolve into Phase 2 of their plan-leverage assets for "ready to win now" players and then become a 40-plus win team immediately. And they'd have a good future moving forward, something they didn't have before. However, doing that now would limit their chances at getting guys to push them to 55-plus wins, which is the number that signals true contenders. So they are closer, but not close.
Haberstroh: Fact, but that's not saying much. That was a roster of solid rotation players, but no foundational pieces. You need cornerstones to build a house. To me, they were on track to be the Charlotte Hornets of the past few seasons. If that's your goal, then cool. But this question is about title contention, and the Sixers are trying to get the Anthony Davis or Karl-Anthony Towns chip in the next draft.
Ford: Fiction. Though that doesn't mean they were close in May of 2013. They were far away then as well. But trying to project title contention with this group is really, really challenging. That will change if they win the draft lottery this year. But so far they lack the assets to do much, and their cap space doesn't give them the edge they once thought it would. They aren't a move or two away. They are five or six moves away.
4. What is your opinion of the situation in Philadelphia?
Elhassan: I can't steal Coach Thorpe's excellent Jurassic Park analogy, so I'll go with this: Tanking is like yogurt -- it comes in many flavors. Some people like strawberry, some folks love peach; Sam Hinkie appears to be a fan of plain yogurt made from goat milk that is on the cusp of curdling. That is to say, the overall strategy (create cap flexibility, lose some games and gain ping-pong balls) isn't revolutionary or even original, but the extent to which they've taken it far surpasses the taste buds of most humans.
There's a way to execute Philly's strategy without going needlessly overboard. Ultimately, the Sixers will benefit from many of the moves Hinkie has made -- I just don't think Hinkie will be the GM when those benefits are realized.
Pelton: The incessant losing seems to be taking a toll on everyone involved, and I'm not sure Hinkie and company adequately prepared for that. That said, they were equally bad at the start of last season and ended the year good enough to offer some hope for the future. They're unlikely to remain hopeless.
Thorpe: I hate it. What if 10 teams did it? Europe would be filled with replacement level players deemed too good and too expensive for a third of the league. That thought makes me sick. And I feel for their fans. Why would anyone go to a game until the organization earned their trust?
Haberstroh: Looking through a lens of innovative enterprise, I freakin' love it. They're thinking outside the box and trying something new. You need stars to win a title. Almost every title winner drafted one, sometimes multiple stars (e.g. Spurs, Warriors). And you have your best chance to land the big whale in the top-5.
And here's the sneaky-brilliant thing: The process is designed to reward bad bets. If you screw up on one prospect, hey, maybe Ben Simmons can save us! They're trying to work the system, and they might be right. They might be wrong. In that case, that just puts them in the same bucket as the other 24 teams that failed to win a title in the past decade.
Ford: If, say, the Sixers make the NBA Finals by 2020, this "process" will probably have been worth it. Seven years from hopeless to contender isn't that long. The Warriors suffered for 13 seasons before their playoff drought ended in 2007, and it took them another eight to make the Finals. That's 21 seasons. It was brutal. But do you think Warriors fans care about any of that now as they watch Stephen Curry dominate the league?
5. Does the league bear any responsibility for the situation?
Elhassan: Yes and no. Philly is only playing to the rules and system that the NBA created. I've been on record as not only being anti-draft lottery, but anti-draft. But I realize that's probably too drastic a measure for most people to accept. As it stands, Philly is the perfect playmate for the other 29 franchises: a guaranteed win on the schedule, a clearinghouse for bad contracts, a facilitator for multi-team deals and never a threat in any sense.
Pelton: Of course. If the Sixers felt there was a realistic way to add a superstar without needing to pick near the top of the draft, their strategy would surely be different. At the same time, I'm not sure the situation in Philadelphia is so awful. If the Sixers were 2-16 instead of 0-18, I doubt there would be so much concern trolling.
Thorpe: Yes, 100 percent. I hate what Hinkie and 76ers owner Josh Harris are doing, but they are just taking advantage of the rules. The draft is an outdated process as it is currently constructed. If only one or two more teams start doing this, we will see the radical change that is already needed. The NBA is such a league of progress compared to other pro leagues. In that spirit, I'd love to see the draft abolished and have a true free-agent process.
Haberstroh: I'm with Amin, David and Kevin Arnovitz: Do away with the NBA draft. That's not a knee-jerk reaction to the 76ers -- I just find the lottery and draft system draconian in today's society. Let these young, talented human beings choose their available workplace like the rest of America.
In terms of the current system, which rewards losing, everyone was howling and wagging their fingers at the Houston Astros for the exact thing the 76ers are doing. And after three years of historic losing and investing in youth, now they're a playoff team and one of the most exciting teams in the sport. There's a lesson in patience here.
Ford: Of course it does. The draft system incentivized Hinkie to do it this way. I've advocated a draft lottery that weighs a team's last three seasons in determining draft order. That would make teams think twice, maybe three times before tanking long-term if they'd have to wait two to three years before seeing a top pick. And it would absolutely eliminate one-year tanks when a player gets injured.