Is Jahlil Okafor a Sixers star in the making ... or future Philly trade bait?

For years, ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton have simulated the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers." This season, those conversations are extending beyond the NBA draft to include prospects in their rookie or sophomore seasons.

How is Jahlil Okafor playing?

Kevin Pelton: While he has been overshadowed by the well-deserved hype around fellow rookies Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis, No. 3 overall pick Jahlil Okafor has been putting up big numbers in his own right for the Philadelphia 76ers. Okafor's 17.9 PPG lead all rookies this season and are the most by a rookie since Damian Lillard in 2012-13. At the same time, the Sixers are off to another winless start at 0-14. Chad, what have you seen from Okafor in the NBA so far?

Chad Ford: I think he's largely played exactly as we thought he would: dominant offensively. A liability defensively.

Okafor has always been a special low-post scorer. I'm not sure I've ever seen a big man who has the combination of low-post skills (footwork, hands, go-to moves) that Okafor has at his age.

He's already been pretty dominant as a 19-year-old. No one in the NBA is taking more shots within nine feet of the basket than Okafor. And just two centers (DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Drummond) are taking (and making) more shots within five feet of the basket.

He's a low-post monster -- not only with his back to the basket, but also taking his guy off the dribble from the top of the elbow. And as far as his scoring goes, he's averaging more PPG than any other rookie center in the past 20 years. While he could be more efficient, overall he has been very, very good for a rookie.

How about his defense?

Ford: Well, it was concerns about Okafor's defense that ultimately cost him being the No. 1 pick. And so far, the pre-draft concerns look very warranted. Right, Kevin?

Pelton: They do. With Okafor on the court, the Sixers are allowing 109.0 points per 100 possessions according to NBA.com/Stats, which would be tied for 28th in the league. When he's on the bench, Philadelphia's defensive rating improves to 96.9, which would rank second.

Because the sample is so small, plus-minus statistics are hardly definitive at this point. Unfortunately, these match up well with watching Okafor play. Though he'll block the occasional shot and opponents are actually shooting quite poorly against him around the rim, Okafor is often too late to rotate over as a help defender.

He also has been ineffective on the defensive glass. Okafor's 17.0 percent defensive rebound rate is far worse than league average for a center (22.8 percent) and the team has rebounded better with him on the bench.

Have you seen reasons to believe Okafor can improve these weaknesses?

Ford: Perhaps. Obviously there are some physical limitations that put a ceiling on Okafor's defensive prowess. He's not particularly explosive athletically, which hinders both his lateral and vertical speed. And rebounding has never been his forte.

However, I have had several GMs who have drafted young Duke players tell me that the learning curve between the sort of defense Coach K teaches at Duke and what they're required to play at the NBA level is pretty steep.

In other words, as Okafor learns how to play defense in the NBA, his awareness on that end should improve. The bigger question is, will his effort?

How about his offense?

Ford: So Kevin, given his offensive strengths and defensive weaknesses, what sort of value does Okafor give to a team? Does his offensive prowess make up for his defensive struggles in the modern NBA?

Pelton: That's where I find the results from a preliminary version of ESPN's real plus-minus fascinating. While Okafor rates below-average defensively, which is especially problematic for a center given that big men tend to have more defensive value, his weaker rating is actually on offense. Okafor rates more than four points per 100 possessions worse than an average offensive player, which is counterintuitive given his impressive scoring.

Alas, Okafor isn't yet an efficient scorer. As impressive as he has been facing up and beating slower defenders off the dribble, Okafor has sometimes struggled to score against quality post defenders. He's shooting 44.3 percent in the post but turning the ball over on 16.4 percent of his post plays, according to Synergy Sports tracking, limiting the effectiveness of those plays.

How much of that do you think can be attributed to the Sixers' roster? Would Okafor look better with quality shooters and distributors helping set him up?

Ford: Well, I think that cuts both ways. Okafor's scoring average is up in part because there isn't anyone else on the team who can really score the basketball. He's getting lots of touches for a rookie and is the focal part of the offense: a luxury most rookie big men don't have. That's why Okafor is taking as many shots as players like Cousins and Drummond.

But because he doesn't have any real backcourt help to speak of, and because Nerlens Noel isn't much of a scoring threat up front, defenses can fixate on Okafor, lowering his efficiency.

So I think it's obvious with better shooters and distributors, for example, Okafor would look better. Having better shooters to spread the floor and a better pick-and-roll point guard would help. Okafor has the potential to be a beast as a roll man, for example. Who wants to get in the way of him charging down the lane?

But how much would it help? Even though there's a track record of star players such as Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis lagging in plus-minus (particularly adjusted plus-minus metrics like RPM) early in their careers, I'm a bit pessimistic.

Does Okafor fit in Philadelphia?

Ford: Sixers coach Brett Brown recently said that he's considering moving Okafor to power forward and Noel to center for defensive reasons. That raises a larger question for me. There was a healthy dose of skepticism from NBA teams about pairing Okafor and Noel in the frontcourt together.

What do the stats say? Can these two be their frontcourt of a championship-caliber team in five years?

Pelton: It's a little challenging to separate some of the concerns about the Noel-Okafor combo from those about Okafor individually. The Sixers are allowing more points per 100 possessions when Okafor plays with a different power forward than with Noel, so it's hard to say that Noel playing out of position is the problem on defense.

At the same time, both players have been dramatically more effective playing as the lone center. Check out the stunning numbers, via NBA.com/Stats.

In the short term, I think this suggests Brown should probably limit Okafor's minutes, which would both make it easier to stagger him and Noel at center and also keep Okafor fresher. He looked better on defense during the preseason when he was playing shorter stints and was told to go all out while he was on the court.

In the long term, I wonder whether Okafor is more valuable to another team than Philadelphia. We've already seen that Philadelphia GM Sam Hinkie isn't afraid to deal a talented young player if the return is right. Is an Okafor trade possible?

Ford: Well, you know the answer that Philly will give publicly -- that they love him and he isn't going anywhere. But if there were any team in the league that would be willing to move a player like Okafor a month or two into the season, I think it's the Sixers.

There are few people in the league who scout the draft more thoroughly than Hinkie does, which means I believe he saw Kristaps Porzingis, Emmanuel Mudiay, Justise Winslow and Okafor as much as anyone did. And he chose Okafor despite the fact that Porzingis, Mudiay or Winslow all would have been much better complements to the current roster (and all three might be better players in the long run because of Okafor's weaknesses).

The only justification I can really give for selecting Okafor is that Hinkie thought Okafor was the superior asset, that given his size and long history as a potential No. 1 guy, Hinkie believed he could fetch the highest price the fastest if he needed to move him.

The Sixers' rebuilding plan has been predicated on collecting the best assets -- not necessarily the best fits. The hope is that all those draft picks ultimately land them a couple of superstars, via trade or the draft. So far, the 76ers still aren't there. They have a couple of nice young players, but no obvious cornerstones on the roster yet unless Joel Embiid can return to health.

On a roster that includes Noel and Embiid, and would seem to want to play fast, it's not clear how Okafor fits for the long term. So if Hinkie felt that he could get a player or asset more valuable than Okafor, as he did when he shipped away Michael Carter-Williams one year removed from winning Rookie of the Year, I don't think he'd hesitate.

And there might be a team or two out there where Okafor fits better. I especially wonder about the Lakers. D'Angelo Russell has been a tough fit in L.A. The Lakers flipped from Okafor to Russell the night of the draft. Would the two teams consider swapping the two players? That would effectively be a draft-night trade, a few months later.

It would be another bold move by Hinkie to participate in any Okafor trade. But given his history, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.