We are in the midst of the second full week of the college basketball season and NBA scouts already are coming away from games with some strong impressions on the top prospects in the 2016 draft.
And none are stronger than how they feel about the No. 1 player on our Big Board, LSU freshman Ben Simmons.
"Anyone that doesn't have Simmons No. 1 [on their draft board] should be fired," one longtime GM with a great draft track record told ESPN.com on Monday.
Simmons' first three outings were all terrific -- 11 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists against McNeese State; 22 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals vs. Kennesaw State; 22 points, 16 rebounds, 3 assists versus South Alabama -- but against inferior competition.
Simmons had his first big game of the year at the Barclays Center on Monday versus Marquette. Fifty-one NBA scouts and execs attended and Simmons delivered, scoring 21 points, grabbing 20 rebounds and dishing out seven assists in a loss to Marquette. He made several spectacular plays in the game -- finishing above the rim in transition, taking his man off the dribble in the half court and making a number of creative passes to his teammates for easy scores.
"You don't find players his size, with his elite athletic ability that see the game the way he sees the game," one GM said. "He's unselfish to a fault. He's always trying to make the right play. And he's just scratching the surface. Look at how the other freshmen are faring right now. It takes a while to adjust. What does his box score start looking like when he adjusts?"
The big adjustment scouts are still looking for? Simmons to start knocking down some jump shots. In the first four games for LSU, Simmons has yet to take a 3. And his midrange jumper, when he uses it, is having trouble finding the net. According to Hoop-Math.com, Simmons takes 66 percent of his shots at the rim and is shooting a scintillating 88 from point blank. However, when he steps away from the basket (34 percent of the time), he's shooting just 15 percent.
His reluctance to take jumpers was on full display against Marquette. He passed up two open shots to win the game on the final possession, opting instead to dish off to teammates for more difficult shots.
"I don't think the problem is unselfishness. I think you can tell he doesn't really have confidence in his jumper yet," one GM said. "I don't think it's broken, but it clearly needs improvement. But the only way for him to improve is to keep taking shots. LeBron [James] couldn't shoot either when he came into the league. You just keep taking the shot."
Will his lack of a jump shot put his candidacy for the No. 1 pick in jeopardy?
"Not a chance," one GM said. "He does everything else well. He's not a bad shooter. It won't stop anyone from taking him No. 1."
That sentiment was shared by more than a dozen other NBA GMs and scouts I spoke with -- all of whom had Simmons as the clear No. 1 on the Big Board.
The question, just two weeks into the season, is whether anyone else can really catch him. Remember, last year Jahlil Okafor was the consensus No. 1 pick at this juncture of the season and he slid to No. 3 on draft night.
The GMs I spoke with mentioned Croatia's Dragan Bender and Kentucky's Skal Labissiere as players who could challenge Simmons. But all of them reiterated that right now, it's not even close.
"Towns, Mudiay and Porzingis were always in the mix last year," one GM said. "There was plenty of debate. There just isn't any real debate with my scouts about Simmons right now. He's way ahead of those guys. He's going to have to struggle and those guys are going to have to get a lot better."
More freshmen impressing
Simmons isn't the only freshman who has impressed NBA scouts in the early going. We discussed Kentucky's Jamal Murray last week.
On Monday, Simmons was matched up against Marquette's Henry Ellenson. Ellenson, who has drawn some comparisons to both a young Dirk Nowitzki and a young Kevin Love, scored 16 points and grabbed 11 boards in 28 minutes. The athletic power forward was 2-for-2 from beyond the arc. Ellenson is coming off a rough game against Iowa, where he went just 1-for-8 from the field. But scouts aren't deterred.
"The way our league is going, you want bigs who play like Ellenson plays," one scout said. "He can really shoot, moves well and still rebounds. He's going high."
Florida State's two freshmen, Dwayne Bacon and Malik Beasley, are both putting up huge numbers for the Seminoles early. Bacon is averaging more than 20 PPG, 6.5 RPG and is shooting 47 percent from 3 in his first five games for the Seminoles. He is a terrific athlete with a very NBA-ready game. Scouts were a little reserved in projecting him early because he's a year older than most of the freshmen in his class, but after a hot start, he's moving into lottery consideration. Beasley, an athletic 2-guard, is also averaging 20 PPG and shooting a red-hot 58 percent from 3 in his first five games. He's a little undersized for his position, but his combination of length, athleticism and shooting ability makes him very intriguing in an otherwise weak shooting guard crop this season.
And scouts are already beginning to buzz about Washington freshman Marquese Chriss. Chriss is an athletic forward who can play both the 3 and the 4. He's averaging 18.7 PPG, 6 RPG and 1.7 blocks and steals per game. He's still pretty raw, but scouts fall in love with long, versatile forwards and Chriss looks like he has all the physical tools to be a star.
Bacon, Beasley and Chriss have risen significantly on our latest top 100.
Patience, young padawan
Not every top-rated freshman is breaking out right away. Two, in particular, look like they might be a little further away than we once thought.
Duke's Brandon Ingram is an elite prospect. You see flashes of that in every game that he plays, but his lack of strength is a significant issue right now. On Sunday, Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski moved Ingram out of the starting lineup. He's shooting just 36 percent from the field in the early going. But scouts aren't ready to drop him down their boards just yet.
"He's got so much talent," one NBA scout said. "Everyone wants these kids to come in and dominate right away. It takes some guys longer than others. Kelly Oubre was just terrible to start the season last year. I think you'll see a different player in March."
Indiana's Thomas Bryant also took a beating in Indiana's first loss against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons abused Bryant in the paint, exposing his lack of foot speed and defensive prowess. He played hard, made some nice passes and showed a positive attitude, but looked very far away on Monday.