Note: This is the fourth piece in a series of features making a case for each top prospect as the No. 1 pick. I've made the case for Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell, and Emmanuel Mudiay. Today we go in depth on Latvian big man Kristaps Porzingis.
Las Vegas -- At approximately 12:25 pm, the loud background hum coming from the NBA's top decision makers seated in the stands at the IMPACT gym in Las Vegas suddenly went silent.
For two hours, as a dozen or so bubble first- and second-round prospects worked out at the IMPACT gym in Las Vegas, the 30 NBA execs and scouting staffs in attendance spent more time focusing on each other than what was happening on the court.
They talked deals, shared the latest gossip, told war stories as players like Michael Frazier and Christian Wood auditioned for their NBA lives. Several GMs paced the sidelines, back to the court, with their cell phone attached to their ear.
Then it all stopped. All of it. Like a pride of crouching lions ready to pounce on an unsuspecting gazelle prancing across the savannah.
The gazelle? A 7-foot-2, 19-year-old prodigy from Latvia that looks and plays like a cross between Dirk Nowitzki, Andrei Kirilenko and yes, Kevin Durant.
Bounce. Bounce. Swish.
Bounce. Bounce. Swish.
Swish. Swish. Swish. Swish.
No one wanted to move. No one wanted to scare him away.
Latvian prodigy Kristaps Porzingis bounded through his first and only workout in front of the NBA.
This is the only look teams will get before the draft. Every second, every detail, matters.
For forty-five minutes, Porzingis, alongside Myles Turner, Jarell Martin and Rakeem Christmas, put on a show worthy of a city like Vegas.
What happened in Vegas won't stay in Vegas. Not this time.
Testing the waters
Porzingis is no stranger to NBA teams nor draftniks.
The lanky Latvian actually declared for the NBA draft in 2014. His decision caught most NBA executives (and me) off guard, sending fans and GMs alike to YouTube to try to get a look. His team in Sevilla suddenly was inundated with credential requests.
Athletic 7-footers who can both protect the rim and shoot jumpers will do that.
The word back was all positive, albeit cryptic. Within weeks Porzingis had pushed up the Big Board all the way to the late lottery. Rumors began flying the Thunder had promised to take him if he remained in the draft.
Here's what I wrote in June of 2014 after talking to numerous NBA scouts:
"A few weeks ago it seemed unlikely that Porzingis would keep his name in the draft. The 18-year-old Latvian was projected as a potential top-10 pick next year. But sources now say Porzingis has received a promise from the Thunder to draft him in the first round. There's no way he'll be around at No. 29, so the Thunder's pick at No. 21 is the target. The question is whether that will be high enough to get him. Porzingis going in the late lottery to mid-first round is no longer a pipe dream for this skilled 7-footer with tremendous upside. With so many teams carrying multiple first-round picks, his range starts with the Magic at No. 12. Plus, the Suns at No. 14, the Bulls at Nos. 16 or 19, and now likely ends with the Thunder at No. 21."
Then, just two weeks before the draft, just as the Porzingis hype reached the point of irrational -- a Latvian Rorschach test that every GM and scout could project their dreams upon -- he announced he was withdrawing from the draft and returning to Spain to get stronger and to improve his draft status, opening the window for every NBA scout to pick what little meat he had on his bones clean over the subsequent year of scouting.
"The Latvian Zinger" would no longer be hypothetically great. Now he was a living, breathing prospect subject to the withering scrutiny of weathered NBA scouts burned by nightmares of Darko and Skita. I talked to two teams who began planning multiple trips to Spain the day after he pulled out of the draft.
This time, he'd have to earn his draft position.
And his workout in Vegas would be his magnum opus.
Boom or bust
Porzingis' season in Spain went as well as one could hope for a 19-year-old playing in the ACB -- the toughest league in Europe. Sevilla hired former NBA assistant coach Scott Roth to helm the team. Roth quickly implemented NBA style offensive set and began mentoring Porzingis.
He had been an assistant coach with the Mavericks when they drafted Dirk Nowitzki and again with the Grizzlies when they took Pau Gasol. He also worked with Jonas Valanciunas in Toronto his rookie year. Roth knew what it took to transform an international big man into a NBA star and knew this year in Spain would be huge to his development.
"He handled himself really well," Roth told ESPN. "He's very mature for his age. He has a great family and a base around him. He's a great, humble kid who's a worker. He's very competitive. He has a lot of intensity and competitive fight in him. That's the most critical component to his success in my opinion."
Within weeks, Roth began to see shades of both Dirk and Pau in his game. Shades Roth believes will translate from Spain to the NBA.
"He's going to make open shots," Roth said. "You're going to have to guard him from 15 feet to the 3-point line. His stroke is great. I had Dirk as a rookie. Dirk had more range. But the fluidity and grace of the shot is Dirk-like. He's athletic enough to run the floor. He's deceivingly good as a weak side shot blocker. He's actually very good down in the post. He just doesn't have the strength to maintain his position in the paint. And maybe most importantly, no one will out work him."
Porzingis responded to the challenge well. While his numbers in Spain (11.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG 46 percent 3-point shooting in 20 MPG in the Eurocup and 10.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 31 percent 3-point shooting in 21 MPG in the ACB) might not wow you, they were very good for a player his age.
In front of a gaggle of NBA scouts in late March he dropped 18 points, grabbed six boards and shot 2-for-4 from 3 in a game against the best team in the ACB -- FC Barcelona.
Our own Kevin Pelton, projected his WARP as 3.4 -- good for second among any prospect in the draft (D'Angelo Russell ranked No. 1 by a sliver at a projected 3.7 WARP)
Wrote Pelton: "At the age of 19, Porzingis has been a valuable contributor for Sevilla in the ACB -- one of the best national leagues in Europe -- as well as the intercontinental EuroCup competition. Based on his translated statistics, Porzingis could come to the NBA and competently play rotation minutes right away. Porzingis has shown range to the slightly shorter FIBA 3-point line, making 38 percent of his 3-pointers this season across all competitions. His combination of blocks and steals is also solid."
And the teams that did the most homework always came away impressed with what they saw on the court.
Here was what one NBA GM told me in early April after seeing Porzingis play against Barcelona:
"I was watching him warm up and had flashbacks to when I saw Pau Gasol take the floor for the first time in Spain, only this kid is much more athletic than Gasol and plays with that same fluidity. I've been asking my team since then: Are you sure he's not the No. 1 guy? Are these guys in college really better than him?"
All year I got calls as teams returned from Spain asking me the same question. "Why isn't this kid in the discussion for the No. 1 pick?" I always responded the same way:
"That's the question I'm asking you."
In short, the buzz Porzingis generated in his workout isn't just some sort of workout voodoo. Teams that scouted his games in Spain were coming away similarly smitten.
And therein lies the biggest dilemma for Porzingis. There was a time when having a foreign sounding last name improved your draft standing by 10 to 15 points. After the success of Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker and Andrei Kirilenko (Gasol, Parker and Kirilenko all made NBA All-Rookie first team in 2001-02) it was "in" to be international.
But then Nikoloz Tskitishvili (the fact I still remember how to spell his name probably tells you how
Fool me once and well ... it happens in the draft. Fool me twice, three, four times and you have to start looking inward.
Since then there have been a few hits. Ricky Rubio, Valanciunas, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Dennis Schroder and Nikola Mirotic have all started making their mark in the NBA. But none of them have reached the success of players like Dirk, Pau or Parker.
And that's why Porzingis hasn't gotten any buzz at No. 1. Because when you ask GMs about him they all say the same thing. "I love him, I'm just not sure who has the balls to take him ahead of more established guys like Towns or Okafor or Russell."
More established? Sevilla played against teams like Real Madrid and FC Barcelona that would've killed Duke in the NCAA Championship game. The silly debate about whether Kentucky could've beaten the 76ers? I don't know an NBA scout who thinks they could've beaten any top team in Europe, let alone the NBA.
"Established has nothing to do with it," one long-time NBA scout told me in Vegas. "That's code for, 'I won't get fired if I draft Okafor and he turns into Greg Oden. But I will get fired if Porzingis is the next Darko.'"
Especially in a draft that looks eerily similar to 2003 when LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh went one through five. Like that draft, if the 2015 one has a top five, four grew up and played in the U.S. Only one has spent his entire career overseas. No one wants to have an epic bust among the top five again.
Roth, for one, isn't worried. "Most of the international guys that busted didn't love the game," he said. "They failed because of a lack of passion and work ethic. It was convenient for them to come over and make a lot of money. Zinger's more in the Dirk mode, in that you can't get him out of the gym. He's also more in the Gasol mode, because he's so skilled.
"I hate to throw Dirk's name out there so flippantly. He's been so great. I don't think anyone thought when we drafted him he'd be this great. Zinger has some characteristics of Pau. Some of Dirk. But what he becomes? I can't tell you. But I don't think he'll be a bust. At worst he's a really good player. At best, a potential all-star. He's just too skilled, and too competitive to fail."
Who takes the leap?
On Friday, Porzingis did his part on the court to quiet his skeptics.
He showed an effortless stroke from beyond the NBA 3-point line -- going 17-for-25 in his first round of five-spot shooting despite practicing the shot from that distance for just a week.
Equally impressive was the way Porzinigs moved on the floor. He's quick laterally, explosive vertically and has the coordination and balance of a guard. Everything he did on the court came easy to him.
Porzingis grew up playing as a guard, but it's a couple of NBA big men after whom he'd like to model his game. And neither of them played a minute in Europe.
"When I was young, I started playing point guard," Porzingis said. "That's how I got my skills, I think, from playing outside. I love how Anthony Davis is playing. He's having an amazing season. I've watched a lot of tape of [Kevin Garnett]. My brother makes videos to watch to learn from those guys. Those are guys I look up to and try to learn from."
Paired up with another lottery pick in Myles Turner (a player who was ranked the No. 2 high school in the country by ESPN Recruiting), Jarell Martin (a super athletic power forward who was also a top-10 player coming out of high school) and Rakeem Christmas (another top-10 ranked player who played four years at Syracuse and dominated as a senior) Porzingis not only looked like he belonged -- athletically and skill set wise -- he actually popped. When you consider that all three of the Americans also had excellent workouts, that's saying something.
"Throw a Kentucky or a Duke jersey on him," one long-time NBA GM said, "And you're in a heated debate about who is No. 1 in this draft. He has Dirk's shooting ability and moves and Kirilenko's athleticism. Think about it. What if Dirk had been a better athlete and defender? What if Kirilenko was four or five inches taller and could shoot it? That doesn't come along in the draft every year. I'm not sure it's ever come along in the draft."
Even the GMs who were wringing their hands over his thin frame seemed to be talking themselves out of that concern.
"His upper body needs a lot of work," one GM who had been critical of his body in the past said, "but actually his lower body is pretty good. And for a player like him, that's the half of the body that matters defensively. It could get better, but it's not bad like I thought it was. In a couple of years, it's not going to be an issue."
Said Roth, "I had Gasol as a rookie in Memphis. They have the same body structure. It's a work in progress. It's not going to be totally fixed in six months. He's going to be 22 or 23 when he gets 20 or 30 pounds. But once his body catches up, he's going to be a monster."
Porzingis' body looks significantly better thanks in part to the work of trainer Joe Abunassar, owner of IMPACT Sports. Abunassar began working with Porzingis last summer and sent him back to Latvia with a plan.
Porzingis came back a year later stronger, proving to scouts that with the right weight training he'll be able to continue to add weight. "He's an amazing prospect," Abunassar said.
"He's keeps getting better. Keeps getting stronger. We won't even know for sure how good he'll be for a couple of years. He's put in the work. And I think he'll keep putting in the work."
Teams can't even get worked up about the challenges of language and culture. Porzingis already speaks fluent English (thanks to watching American cartoons and movies as a kid and having American teammates in Spain since he was 14). And culturally he's way more in tune with American culture than your average 19-year-old Latvian. Believe it or not, not every European grows up dreaming of playing in the NBA. But Porzingis has.
"I've wanted to play in the NBA since I was a little kid," Porzingis said. "It's always been my dream. I've been working at it since I was 14." When I asked him if learning English was part of the job preparation he smiled and said, "Of course. You have to speak English to play in the NBA. I didn't want that to be a problem."
"I've been around a lot of Europeans," Roth said. "Things like passion or the ability for him to make the transition, it's not an issue with him. You put him in competitive situations he'll play as hard as anyone. He got beat up a lot. His competitive fire is as high as anyone. You just don't see 7-1 guys who love to play like he does. You have to kick him out of the gym. He knows the NBA. It's a passion and love for him and that will vault him into being a great player in the NBA."
So what is the issue with him going No. 1?
The problems are more practical.
Towns is one of them. He's stronger and also has a freaky skill set for his size. Minnesota is another one. They seem locked into either Towns or Okafor.
Despite the love affair Porzingis generated on Friday, virtually every GM I spoke with still said, all things considered, they'd take Towns ahead of him -- even if Porzingis had played at Kentucky or Duke.
"I just think Towns is the best player in the draft," said one GM. "I'm not sure Minnesota knows that yet, but I think they will be the end of the process. And if they don't, it's because Flip [Saunders] fell in love with Okafor."
The second problem is that the Lakers, drafting at No. 2, have a GM in Mitch Kupchak who is viewed by his peers as particularly risk averse. "Jim Buss might intervene," one GM said. "But I'd be shocked to see Mitch pass on either Okafor or Russell at No. 2. Shocked."
ESPN's own Marc Stein reported on Saturday the Lakers were giving Porzingis a serious look after the workout on Friday. Both Buss and Kupchak were on hand for the workout and then both of them were granted a private interview with Porzingis afterward.
The Sixers at No. 3 is a very real possibility. General Manager Sam Hinkie isn't afraid to work outside the traditional thinking of scouting. While Porzingis isn't their biggest need, if the Sixers think he's the best player in the draft, they won't hesitate to get him and find guards via free agency, trades or in subsequent drafts. They aren't in a hurry in Philadelphia. In fact, after months of thinking that it would be either Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay for Philly at No. 3, I think Porzingis might actually be their pick.
The Knicks at No. 4 are interesting. Phil Jackson made the trip out to see the workout and conduct an interview with Porzingis. He sat right under the basket through the workout. But for months his name hasn't even been mentioned to me by sources inside the Knicks. While NBA execs don't consider Jackson to be risk averse, they also feel that he's likely to go with a player that's more able to contribute something now. "The window is closing for Carmelo and Phil needs this pick to help now."
That leaves the Magic as the other likely landing spot for Porzingis. Orlando GM Rob Hennigan has done a lot of homework on Porzingis and he's a perfect fit in Orlando. Assistant GM Scott Perry could be a counter voice, however. He was the third in command in Detroit the year the Pistons took Darko and was the lone voice in the organization at the time advocating for Carmelo Anthony instead. I'm sure Hennigan's heard the whole story.
If Porzingis slides past No. 5 things get murkier. I didn't see Vlade Divac (the Kings' head guy) at the workout and given when Divac was hired, there's a chance he hasn't seen Porzingis play this season. It's hard to believe they'd draft him sight unseen. The Nuggets at No. 7 and the Pistons at No. 8 are probably Porzingis' floor.
But the very idea we are even talking about seven or eight with Porzingis speaks to the obstacles his non-U.S. origin causes.
Porzingis can't speak to what others players who happened to be born outside of the United States have done before him. All he can do is try to convince NBA decision makers being from Latvia isn't the most important attribute to consider.
"If a guy loves the game, and is a student of the game, he will be a good player," Porzingis said. "I love the game, I love to study the game, I'm hungry and I want to be in the league and I think I have what it takes to be a star. They will make the decision. I can't control [anything else]."
For 45 wow-filled minutes, Porzingis mesmerized the most important decision makers in the NBA. He took control of his destiny. He did his part. The only question left is which lion will have the courage to pounce first.