As Insider's Tom Haberstroh explains today, the NBA's 35-year war is over and the 3-pointer has won. With shooting in demand more than ever, teams will be looking to the upcoming NBA draft to add to their perimeter attack. We'll take a look at which possible picks can help most, but before doing that, we have to determine how to choose the best shooters -- a task that's not as easy as it might appear.
When it comes to predicting NBA 3-point percentages, we have to take into account more than just what a player shot from 3-point range in college (or overseas). Because of the high variability in 3-point shooting, especially in small samples like the shorter NCAA season, free throw percentage matters, too.
Predicting NBA 3-point percentage
It might seem crazy that anything but the college 3-point shooting percentage would help predict NBA 3-point shooting. But history is striking in this regard. Consider this: 13 players in Sports-Reference.com's college database (dating to 1997-98) shot at least 42 percent from 3-point range with at least 250 career attempts and have attempted at least 500 career 3-pointers as pros. A similar-sized group of players made at least 85 percent of their free throws on the same number of attempts. Lo and behold, the two groups -- which overlap somewhat -- have shot almost the same percentage from 3-point range in the NBA.
From a statistical standpoint, it makes sense that free throws might convey important information about a player's overall shooting ability. After all, a player's free throw percentage is much more stable season to season. NBA players who have attempted between 100 and 200 free throws in consecutive seasons have a .785 correlation between their free throw percentage in the two years. (Correlation measures the linear relationship between two numbers, with 1 representing one-to-one correlation and zero indicating no linear relationship at all.) The year-to-year correlation in 3-point percentage among players with the same number of attempts is just .313.
So if we take the full sample of players with at least 250 career 3-point and free throw attempts in the Sports-Reference.com NCAA database and at least 500 career 3s attempted in the NBA, college free throw percentage actually correlates slightly better (.443) to NBA 3-point percentage than college 3-point percentage (.429). Neither is a particularly good predictor of 3-point shooting in the NBA, but together they're stronger than either stat individually, explaining about a quarter of the variation in what players shoot.
Using a regression that combines college 3-point and free throw percentages based on that sample of players, I've predicted the expected NBA 3-point percentage for everyone in this year's draft. Here are the best shooters among Chad Ford's top 60 players -- those likely to be drafted.
Top 10 shooters
1. Michael Frazier II
Shooting guard
Florida
Big Board rank: 36
NCAA 3-P%: .432
NCAA FT% .854
Projected NBA 3-P%: .389
Frazier would qualify for both lists above if he had enough free throw attempts; he took just 158 foul shots in three seasons, an indication he's more of a shooting specialist than a well-rounded player. But what a specialist! Despite a slump last season, Frazier has the second-best college 3-point percentage of any draft prospect. The examples of Darren Collison and Dan Dickau, two of the four players who combined elite free throw and 3-point shooting in college, suggest that it's not a surefire indicator of a great NBA shooter. But the other two players with a similar combination of 3-point and free throw prowess are elite marksmen Kyle Korver and Steve Novak.
2. Tyler Harvey
Guard
Eastern Washington
Big Board rank: 53
NCAA 3-point%: .432
NCAA FT%: .847
Projected NBA 3-P%: .388
Harvey's draft stock slipped at the combine, where he shot 4-of-15 from 3-point range in two scrimmages. He's got an unusual preference for shooting off balance, a low release and questionable shot selection. Despite all of those issues, Harvey shot the best career percentage from 3-point range of any 2015 draft prospect, and his free throw percentage was solid as well.
3. Joseph Young
Guard
Oregon
Big Board rank: 40
NCAA 3-P%: .390
NCAA FT%: .886
Projected NBA 3-P%: .384
After two seasons of making better than 40 percent of his 3s, Young slipped to 35.7 percent as a senior. His form was still good; he made 92.5 percent of his free throws, second-best in the NCAA. That combination suggests Young should be a very good NBA shooter.
4. Tyus Jones
Point guard
Duke
Big Board rank: 20
NCAA 3-P%: .379
NCAA FT%: .889
Projected NBA 3-P%: .380
Possibly the biggest surprise on this list, Jones isn't thought of as an elite shooter. He averaged just 1.2 3-pointers per game during his lone college season. However, Jones made them at a solid rate, and his free throw percentage was one of the 10 best by a freshman in the Sports-Reference.com database. He'll be an interesting test case for the value of free throw shooting.
5. Devin Booker
Shooting guard
Kentucky
Big Board rank: 13
NCAA 3-P%: .411
NCAA FT%: .828
Projected NBA 3-P%: .380
By acclaim, Booker is the top shooter in this year's draft, though he has a relatively small sample size to evaluate. He attempted just 64 free throws during his lone season in Lexington. Booker's 3-point shooting (on 141 attempts) was very good but not otherworldly; he ranked 18th among 2014-15 freshmen in accuracy. So while he's likely to be an effective 3-point shooter in the NBA, my model sees better players ranked ahead of him.
6. R.J. Hunter
Shooting guard
Georgia State
Big Board rank: 21
NCAA 3-P%: .354
NCAA FT%: .853
Projected NBA 3-P%: .371
This model was designed to deal with players like Hunter, who has obvious shooting potential but made just 30.5 percent of his 3s as a junior in 2014-15. While not as favorable as an earlier model that used projected rookie statistics and barely considered 3-point percentage at all, this version still gives Hunter credit for his strong foul shooting. Perhaps the best match for Hunter is another lanky mid-major star: Kevin Martin, who played at Western Carolina. Martin made 34.6 percent of his 3s during his college career but shot 84.1 percent from the line, which presaged his improvement to 38.5 percent beyond the arc in the NBA.
7. D'Angelo Russell
Point guard
Ohio State
Big Board rank: 3
NCAA 3-P%: .411
NCAA FT%: .756
Projected NBA 3-P%: .369
Russell actually shot the same percentage as Booker from 3-point range as a freshman, but that probably overstates his shooting ability. Russell's free throw percentage was much more pedestrian, and he projects as more of an above-average 3-point shooter than an elite one. For comparison's sake, frequent Russell comp James Harden is a .370 career NBA 3-point shooter.
8. Mario Hezonja
Guard/forward
FC Barcelona
Big Board rank: 7
ACB/Euroleague 3-P%: .384
ACB/Euroleague FT%: .796
Projected NBA 3-P%: .369
To put Hezonja on the same scale as his college peers, I adjusted for the difference in how 3-point percentages have translated from college to the NBA as compared to both ACB and Euroleague to the NBA. In particular, Euroleague shooting declines less, so Hezonja's 36.9 percent accuracy in Euroleague games is better than it looks.
9. Anthony Brown
Guard/forward
Stanford
Big Board rank: 54
NCAA 3-P%: .403
NCAA FT%: .751
Projected NBA 3-P%: .367
My favorite 3-and-D candidate in this year's draft, Brown shot 44.6 percent from 3-point range during his last two seasons, good for fifth among players with at least 250 attempts in that span. His free throw percentage isn't quite as strong, but Brown improved that, too, making 79.0 percent of his foul shots as an upperclassman.
10. Pat Connaughton
Shooting guard
Notre Dame
Big Board rank: 47
NCAA 3-P%: .386
NCAA FT%: .777
Projected NBA 3-P%: .366
Connaughton's 268 career 3-pointers rank second to Young among the top 10 players. His accuracy hasn't been quite as strong, but still suggests Connaughton should be a good 3-point shooter in the NBA.
Best of the rest
The best projected NBA 3-point shooters among players ranked outside Ford's top 60:
Kevin Pangos, PG, Gonzaga: 38.3 percent
Tyler Haws, SG, BYU: 38.1 percent
Quinn Cook, PG, Duke: 37.6 percent
Andre Hollins, PG, Minnesota: 37.5 percent
Corey Hawkins, G, UC Davis: 37.5 percent