New York Knicks fans might be the most loyal in the league, filling Madison Square Garden season after season despite losses, mismanagement and rotten luck. Coming off the worst season in the long history of one of the NBA's original franchises, those fans could at least take some consolation in the knowledge that the 2014-15 season was finally over and the Knicks had the second-best odds of securing the No. 1 overall pick. Instead, the Knicks wound up with the No. 4 overall pick, the only team lady luck dropped in the NBA draft lottery.
That doesn't mean things won't perk up for New York this summer, though. Phil Jackson still has the fourth pick in what projects to be a draft with four top-tier players. Unlike other teams that were as bad as the Knicks were in 2014-15, New York has a bonafide star in Carmelo Anthony, who may be in the back half of his prime but is in his prime nonetheless. Depending on what happens with their restricted free agents, non-guaranteed contracts and veteran point guard Jose Calderon, Jackson could free up enough cap space to sign two marquee free agents for at or near the max, or sign one and then add another star via the trade market.
Sure, a lot of dominoes have to fall New York's way, but at least the range of possibility is wide. What would a successful Knicks offseason look like?
Like a fantasy adventure game, Jackson's summer starts with a plan, then unfolds according to the choices he makes each step along the way. Here is a blueprint for an offseason to get the Knicks back to contending status.
Step 1: Pick a clear initial direction.
It's always better to be proactive, even when it comes to a long-range building plan that can veer off in a number of directions. The first decision comes down to the short term: Do the Knicks realistically believe they can push into playoff contention over the course of this summer? Derek Fisher has suggested it could happen in musings to the media, but he probably wasn't thinking things through -- and ultimately it's not really up to him.
We don't know what is going on in Jackson's mind, but there are some things we do know. The first is Anthony, who turns 31 a week from Friday and has three years plus a player option left on his deal at very near max levels. The second is Jackson, who will be 70 by the time next season begins. These are the two most prominent figures in the Knicks' organization right now, and if these factors point you toward a slow, methodical rebuild, you're not really paying attention. Plus, these are the Knicks, owned by James Dolan. Quick fixes are organizational pillars at Madison Square Garden.
What that really suggests is that the Knicks will swing for the fences every step along the way. And that's fine, as they are one of the few franchises for which it isn't delusional in trying to make that approach work, especially entering an offseason in which they have financial flexibility. They can think big, and as long as they don't do something just to do it, everything can work out fine.
Step 2: On draft night, select the best player available after exploring trades.
Premium talent breeds premium opportunity. If you troll Knicks fan boards, you find a lot of suggestions that because New York has fallen to No. 4 in the draft, Jackson should look to swap the pick for multiple assets. This can mean bringing in a lower draft pick plus a useful veteran, or simply swapping one draft pick for two. The problem with this approach is that while you can add two starting-caliber players in such scenarios, you're less likely to find an upper-echelon foundation player -- the kind you might well be trading away.
It's easy to understand why New York fans might like the trade-down idea. At No. 4, the Knicks now look like they're in line for point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. Mudiay is as talented as any player in the draft, with elite size, strength and athleticism for his position. He can propel the Knicks' transition offense and offer enough defensive versatility to guard either backcourt position? He looks more like combo guard than a pure point but, these days, what young guard doesn't? And anyway, the triangle offense turns all guards into combo players. There are nevertheless concerns about fit, as Mudiay has an ugly shooting profile both from a scouting and statistical standpoint -- he shot 30 percent on 3s in China, and an even more troubling 58 percent from the foul line. The triangle needs guys who can shoot.
However, even if Jackson doesn't love Mudiay for his system, or thinks he will take too long to develop given Step 1's mandate for contending sooner than later, he should still take him. There is no better currency than elite, teenage talent on a rookie-scale contract, as Cleveland found out last summer when it used Andrew Wiggins to make the winning bid for Kevin Love. Jackson may or may not see Mudiay as an ideal fit, but if he doesn't, there are plenty of talent evaluators around the league who see him as the next Russell Westbrook. The combination of a talent like that and New York's capacity for fitting almost any salary into its cap space is an exciting opportunity.
If Mudiay is gone, then Jackson would take a prospect -- be it Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor or D'Angelo Russell -- who doesn't have the same kind of triangle-related concerns as Mudiay but who has proved his mettle in a major college program. Since New York can't trade its pick until draft night anyway, Jackson will know with whom he has to work before making a potential move.
Step 3: Target top free agents
Well, duh. The top free agents on the board for New York's system would all be relatively safe targets -- Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jimmy Butler, Paul Millsap, Kawhi Leonard and Greg Monroe. Not all of those players would necessarily command the max, either. This step is what last season was all about.
Step 4: Revisit the option to trade draft pick from Step 2.
If New York lands one of the players from Step 3, they'll now have a three-player talent base of (probably) Mudiay, Anthony and an elite free agent, let's say Gasol just to put a name on it. If they land two top free agents, great, but doing so is a long shot and would also mean moving Calderon's contract (not an easy sell). More likely it would be Mudiay, Melo and Gasol. Well, one of these things is not like the other. Can you really envision a crooked-shooting Mudiay trotting around the halfcourt offense in an isosceles daze as the No. 3 option of an offense that yields the fewest drive opportunities in the league, and calls for the lowest rate of pick-and-rolls? OK, you can envision it because he's super talented. But if you're Jackson, you're looking to cash in Mudiay and your remaining cap flexibility for that much-needed third veteran foundation player, via the trade market.
Step 5: Fill out the roster.
Let's say the plan has proceeded flawlessly. The Knicks have two top-25 veterans to pair with Anthony and hopefully some young, cheap pieces left over from the current roster, such as Langston Galloway, Tim Hardaway Jr., Shane Larkin and maybe Ricky Ledo. Now they are fishing for veterans to fill in the gaps. Assuming the cap space is spent, the Knicks would be looking at a room exception and minimum salaried guys, but at least New York would figure to be an attractive landing spot for the latter market. It's a top-heavy roster, but they have to start somewhere. Let's not forget these guys lost 65 games last season. Besides, the right top-heavy roster can win two playoff series in the East.
If the Knicks didn't land an elite free agent, they could still look to trade Mudiay -- though that's a less attractive option when you'd still be a veteran short. So it's more likely they would retain their young players and try to convince Andrea Bargnani to sign a short-term, team-friendly deal. Or they could absorb the expiring contract of former Knick David Lee, who is a systemic fit and has become a spare part on a Warriors team looking at a ballooning payroll, let Mudiay go nuts and hope he improves his jumper and retain cap flexibility for 2016. The only real way New York loses the offseason is if in reaction to striking out on the free agent market, Jackson makes moves that inhibit future flexibility.
If they've drafted an exciting rookie and still have future cap space, it's a better place than the Knicks finished the season. New York may have lost lottery night, but that doesn't mean it has to lose the offseason.