When ESPN Insider spent last week debating whether Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook was the better player/point guard, an important guest wasn't invited to the party: Chris Paul of the Los Angeles Clippers, who still belongs in the debate of the NBA's best PG.
By taking on an enormous offensive load after Kevin Durant's injury, Westbrook has been better than Paul this season by most measures. However, when we change the criteria to most valuable, Paul deserves to come out ahead. His durability gives him an important edge over Westbrook in the MVP race.
Here's an in-depth comparison of the star point guards, followed by a case that Paul belongs on the MVP ballot.
What's replacement level got to do with it?
While Westbrook missed 14 games earlier this season with a fractured metacarpal in his right hand, and one more when he suffered a fracture of the zygomatic arch in his face earlier this month, Paul has played in all 74 of the Clippers' games -- the most he's played since arriving in L.A. As a result, Paul has been on the court for nearly 600 more minutes than Westbrook. Or, to consider the alternative perspective, he's kept weaker backup point guards on the bench an additional 600 minutes, which matters when we talk value.
We could factor in playing time by looking at the overall performance of the Clippers' and Thunder's point guards, as I did in last week's look at the importance of the position. But that wouldn't produce a level playing field, since Oklahoma City has backed up Westbrook with overqualified reserves Reggie Jackson and D.J. Augustin, while the Clippers' reserves (Jordan Farmar, who was released midseason, and Austin Rivers) have been far less effective.
Instead, NBA statistical analysts have borrowed the concept of "replacement level" from our baseball counterparts. Rather than considering the actual performance of backups, replacement level allows us to use the generic level of play we'd expect from a freely available player -- in practice, someone signed as a free agent for the NBA's minimum salary. Even when a team such as the Thunder has good backups at a position, an injury to a starter usually requires dipping into the replacement-level pool, as Oklahoma City did in playing Sebastian Telfair and Ish Smith a combined 21 minutes per game during Westbrook's absence.
This season, 21 point guards have been added for the minimum as free agents or on waivers, a diverse group that includes the Chicago Bulls' current starter (Aaron Brooks) and also departed players on 10-day contracts such as Larry Drew II and Tim Frazier. Collectively, weighted by minutes played, these players have averaged 13.1 points and 6.1 assists per 36 minutes, as compared to 15.6 and 6.2 for all point guards. Replacement-level point guards use a smaller percentage of their team's plays (20 percent, as compared to 22.1 percent) less efficiently than all players at the position (.482 true shooting percentage, compared to .523).
Weighted by minutes played, replacement-level point guards have posted a .425 win percentage this season by my per-minute rating equivalent to PER -- 85 percent of league average (.500, naturally). Westbrook's .769 win percentage ranks third in the league, better than Paul's .710 mark (sixth-best). But when we add the replacement-level performance for the remaining minutes, the Clippers' PG position (.632) jumps ahead of the Thunder's point guards (.618) by virtue of Paul's edge in playing time.
Value over replacement stats
Rather than calculating such a stat for every player in the league, we can skip a step by comparing each player's performance to replacement level. Value stats that consider replacement level, like baseball's ubiquitous wins above replacement (WAR), multiply that difference by playing time to determine a player's value to his team. My wins above replacement player (WARP) stat does precisely that, and it shows Paul (16.0) fourth in the league, ahead of Westbrook (14.9).
Other replacement-level stats tell a similar story. ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) gives Westbrook a small per-minute edge over Paul, who dominates in terms of RPM WAR, with 13.9 (third in the league) to Westbrook's 11.0 (ninth). Even PER, which is more favorable to Westbrook because it gives more credit to players with high usage rates, has Paul slightly ahead of Westbrook (18.1 to 18.0) when replacement is factored into estimated wins added.
Only one common all-in-one stat that incorporates replacement level has Westbrook ahead. He's No. 1 in the league by a mile in box plus-minus, and third in the wins over replacement player stat calculated from it (6.6), ahead of Paul (5.7).
Paul belongs on MVP ballot
If your head is swimming from the alphabet soup of advanced statistics, that's OK. The important takeaway is that when playing time is factored in using replacement level to determine value, Paul has been more valuable than Westbrook this season. Lest that seem to be an academic concern, remember that Oklahoma City is still fighting to secure a playoff spot in large part because the Thunder went 5-10 in Westbrook's absence. That's not his fault, but the missed time limited Westbrook's value to the team, while the Clippers have had their star point guard in the lineup every game.
It's more difficult to make the case that Paul has actually been the league's most valuable player. He doesn't have the same kind of playing time edge over Curry (250 fewer minutes) or James Harden of the Houston Rockets (who's played the league's second-highest minutes total, 71 more than Paul). Curry and Harden rank Nos. 1-2 in nearly every value stat that incorporates replacement level (Anthony Davis sneaks ahead of Curry in EWA), which is why they figure to finish in the top two in MVP voting. But if Westbrook is going to be part of the discussion, so too should Paul, who merits a spot somewhere on the five-player ballot.
News and notes
• As we begin the final three weeks of the regular season, no race is hotter than the one for second place in the Western Conference. The Memphis Grizzlies' loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, the Grizzlies' third loss in a row, knocked them out of second place for the first time since Jan. 21. The Rockets now have a half-game edge over the Grizzlies, with the Clippers 1.5 games back.
The winner of the Southwest Division, most likely Houston or Memphis, will have a tiebreaker edge over the Clippers. As a result, the Rockets are now the most likely No. 2 seed, claiming the spot in more than 45 percent of my simulations of the remainder of the season, with the Grizzlies at 25 percent and the Clippers at about 18 percent, while the Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers are long shots at about 5 percent each.
• The concern in Memphis isn't just that the Grizzlies have lost three in a row to some of the league's best teams, but that they've been outclassed in the process. Cleveland and Golden State won in Memphis last week by a combined 45 points, and while the Grizzlies were more competitive on the road Sunday against the Spurs, the result was another double-digit loss (103-89).
Memphis' plus-2.9 point differential now ranks seventh in the West, behind the much-maligned Dallas Mavericks (plus-3.2). The Grizzlies will look better once the schedule starts to even out, but any hope of getting banged-up starters rest without sacrificing playoff positioning is now gone, and it's become difficult to see the Grizzlies seriously challenging for the conference title.
• In the East, teams continue to play hot potato with the eighth and final playoff spot. Leading the race are the Brooklyn Nets, who moved a half-game up on the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers after Sunday's win over the L.A. Lakers. My simulations still show the Pacers as slight favorites to reach the postseason thanks to their superior point differential (minus-0.3, seventh in the East) and a schedule that features just three games against above-.500 teams. But all three teams, along with the Charlotte Hornets (a game back), still have a realistic chance of making the playoffs.
This week's results will go a long way toward sorting out the race. Indiana plays everyone in the race over the next seven days, visiting Brooklyn and Boston before hosting Charlotte and the seventh-place Miami Heat. And the Hornets host the Celtics on Monday night in another pivotal matchup.
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.