During a period where the NBA is blessed with great depth at the point guard position, as ESPN is exploring in our series on "The Point," it's easy to wonder whether these talents are canceling one another out.
To find evidence to the contrary, look no further than the bottom of the standings. With a handful of notable exceptions, the NBA's worst teams also have gotten the weakest play from their point guards, falling behind at what has become perhaps the league's most important position.
Rating point guard play
To evaluate each team's point guard production, I used lineup data from NBA.com/Stats to determine which player on the court was the point guard at any given time. Sometimes, with multi-PG lineups like the Phoenix Suns have used, this is tough to separate, but they shouldn't get credit for all of those contributions while players are at other positions. I then multiplied each player's season-long wins above replacement player (WARP) by my rating system and wins above replacement (WAR) from ESPN's real plus-minus by their percentage of minutes at the point.
That results in the following sets of point guard rankings:
Nine of the top 10 teams are common to both WAR and WARP: the Cavaliers, Warriors, Clippers, Grizzlies, Thunder, Suns, Blazers, Raptors and Wizards. Naturally, seven of these teams (all but the Grizzlies and Suns) had a point guard chosen for this year's All-Star team. And, not coincidentally, they happen to be nine of the league's best teams. Eight of the nine would make the playoffs if the season ended today, and they collectively have a .632 winning percentage.
By contrast, the seven teams that rank in the bottom 10 in both WAR and WARP from their point guards (Nets, Heat, Timberwolves, Knicks, 76ers, Spurs and Jazz) feature just one above-.500 team, the Spurs. It's possible that both the Nets and Heat will make the playoffs in the East, but likely with losing records. This group also includes the teams with the league's three worst records, who bring down their winning percentage to a combined .376.
Because the teams with elite point guards have been better than the ones with poor point guards, and because there are more of them, the 14 teams in the middle have collectively been slightly worse than average, winning at a combined .477 clip.
Ball-dominant wings can render elite PGs unnecessary
To some extent, this year's results run counter to past results, at least in terms of championships. Before San Antonio won last year's title with Tony Parker at the point, no team had won the championship with a point guard who made that season's All-Star Game since ... Parker and the Spurs, in 2006-07. While Rajon Rondo (2007-08 Celtics) and Jason Kidd (2010-11 Mavericks) were star point guards at the beginning and end of their careers, respectively, the most recent two-time championship point guards have been Derek Fisher with the L.A. Lakers and Mario Chalmers with the Miami Heat.
Of course, while Chalmers and Fisher were listed as point guards in the program, they didn't serve as the primary ball handler for their teams. That responsibility went instead to Kobe Bryant with the Lakers and LeBron James in Miami. James Harden of the Houston Rockets is the latest ball-dominant wing in that mold. Harden is effectively the Rockets' point guard, a key reason they've been successful with below-average play from the PG position (20th by WARP, 18th by WAR).
Even with Dwyane Wade as a playmaker, the Heat found they needed better point guard play after James' departure, a problem they solved by adding Goran Dragic at the trade deadline. A couple of other teams have in-house solutions. The Timberwolves figure to improve when Ricky Rubio -- ranked 17th among point guards by executives whom ESPN Insider's Jeff Goodman surveyed -- returns to full health, San Antonio can expect Parker to play better after dealing with a hamstring injury and the Jazz will hope youngsters Dante Exum and Trey Burke improve with more experience.
The remaining teams in the cellar of the point guard rankings, most notably the Knicks and 76ers, will find themselves in the market for an upgrade this summer via either a lottery pick, trade or free agency. Whether they can catch up with the league in terms of point guard play will go a long way to determining whether they remain at the bottom of the standings.
News and notes
• A little more than two months after he was sidelined by swelling in his right knee, Dwight Howard returned to the Rockets' lineup Wednesday. Howard was limited to just 16 minutes, but grabbed seven rebounds and scored four points as Houston defeated the New Orleans Pelicans 95-93 to move within a game and a half of the Grizzlies for first place in the Southwest Division and second in the West. Better yet, the win also boosted the team's chances of getting a lottery pick from New Orleans via last summer's Omer Asik trade. The Pelicans have fallen 3.5 games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder for the eighth and final playoff spot.
• As the Rockets got Howard back, they also lost starting point guard Patrick Beverley, at least temporarily. Beverley tore ligaments in his left wrist Monday, and is awaiting a decision on whether to undergo season-ending surgery. Houston hasn't started its season-opening starting lineup (Beverley, Howard, Harden, Trevor Ariza and Terrence Jones, who is also currently sidelined by a collapsed lung) since October. If Beverley's season is finished, that unit will play together just twice all season.
• The race for the East's final playoff spot gets crazier by the day. On Wednesday night, the Heat went on the road to beat the Boston Celtics, giving them a two-game edge in seventh place. But with the Celtics losing and the Indiana Pacers and Nets winning, the latter over the Charlotte Hornets, four teams are now separated by a half-game -- and even in the loss column -- for eighth, with Boston and Indiana a half-game ahead of Brooklyn and Charlotte.
At this point, trying to predict the outcome seems like pure folly. But the latest results of my playoff simulations show Miami reaching the playoffs 88 percent of the time, with none of the other teams above 50 percent. The Pacers have the inside track on eighth, making the playoffs 45 percent of the time, followed by the Celtics at 29 percent, the Hornets at 21 percent and the Nets at 17 percent. Oh, and somehow the Detroit Pistons -- four games back -- rally to make the playoffs 11 times out of 1,000 simulations. Let's call that the doomsday scenario.
• As part of this week's #WestbrookvsCurry debate, SportsNation has invited readers to weigh in on who's the better player and who is the stronger MVP candidate. While Curry is winning both polls, he's got a bigger edge in terms of MVP (66-34) than better player (55-45). Just two states -- Oklahoma, naturally, and neighboring Arkansas -- favor Westbrook for MVP, while he carries nine states and is tied in two others for being the better overall player.
It's unclear whether the difference can be explained by the amount of time Westbrook has missed because of injury this season or the Warriors' superior record.
• Weekly top five: Best current NBA players whose alma maters reached the Sweet 16:
1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky
2. Russell Westbrook, UCLA
3. John Wall, Kentucky
4. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky
5. Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
Honorable mention: Kyrie Irving, Duke; Kevin Love, UCLA; Zach Randolph, Michigan State
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.