Let's take a look at how the Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans did in their three-way trade Thursday. Here's a breakdown of the deal:
Heat get: guards Goran Dragic and Zoran Dragic
Pelicans get: guard Norris Cole, forward Shawne Williams
Suns get: forwards Danny Granger and John Salmons, center Justin Hamilton, 2017 Miami first-round pick (top-seven protected), 2021 Miami first-round pick
Miami Heat: C
This is perhaps the NBA's most fascinating and riskiest trade since the Brooklyn Nets acquired Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce from the Celtics at the 2013 draft. I can see a scenario in which acquiring Dragic propels the Heat back into contention, which seemed impossible after LeBron James' departure. I can also see a scenario in which Miami has given up two lottery picks for the right to overpay a guard who's already peaked.
The Heat were the most reasonable trade destination for Dragic because, of the teams he desired to play for (the L.A. Lakers and New York Knicks being the others), they were the only one that couldn't sign him outright this summer. Miami's best hope of getting Dragic was making a deal now, and that proved enough motivation to give up a pair of first-round picks.
The other element driving a deadline deal, of course, is the Heat being in the midst of a playoff race. Currently tied for seventh place with the Charlotte Hornets, a game ahead of the Brooklyn Nets, Miami was previously more likely than not to make the playoffs -- but not by much. (My most recent simulation showed the Heat reaching the postseason 57 percent of the time.)
With Dragic in the fold, Miami is not only a favorite to make the postseason but a possible sleeper. Consider this: Per NBA.com/Stats, the Heat have outscored their opponents by 30.7 points per 100 possessions in the 44 minutes the foursome of Chris Bosh, Luol Deng, Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside have played together. That's a tiny sample size, obviously, but it suggests the potential of a Miami team with a healthy Wade and an unleashed Whiteside.
And remember, that success has come with perhaps the league's weakest group of point guards. Put Dragic with the other four players and the Heat have a starting lineup as talented as any in the East outside of Cleveland. It's also a relatively cohesive one. Miami already went through the hard work of learning how to utilize Wade off the ball next to James, meaning Dragic can step into a primary playmaking role in which he'll run the pick-and-roll with Whiteside and the pick-and-pop with Bosh -- similar to the conditions in which he thrived last season in Phoenix.
Now, Miami's depth is still an issue. Take any one of those four players out of the Heat's lineup and the numbers crash quickly. Dragic will help there, too, since he can pick up lead ballhandling duties with Mario Chalmers at off guard in Wade's absence, but trading four players for two -- one of whom (Zoran Dragic) has played 14 minutes in his NBA career -- doesn't exactly strengthen Miami's bench.
Because Milwaukee has a 7.5-game lead in the standings, the Heat are basically stuck in either the seventh or eighth seed, meaning a difficult matchup in the first round. And assuming they re-sign Dragic to a max deal (five years and potentially more than $100 million), next season they'll bring back largely the same group, a year older. Whiteside is the only starter on the right side of the peak age for NBA players, and at 25 he's not far from it. In the summer of 2016, Miami will have the opportunity to rebuild with Deng, Wade and Whiteside becoming free agents. If the Heat struggle, an aging group of Bosh, Dragic and Wade might not be a draw to free agents in a market where nearly every team will have huge amounts of cap space. That's where things could start to go wrong.
Miami will send Phoenix a pick two years after its obligation to the Philadelphia 76ers is satisfied (most likely this season, assuming the Heat will now make the playoffs). That 2017 pick is top-seven protected, limiting the downside, but Miami could still send away a lottery pick. Then in 2021, the Heat's pick goes to the Suns with no protection whatsoever. The 2021 draft is a long ways away; assuming the current age limit is still in effect, one-and-done picks in 2021 are currently in seventh grade. There's a long history, however, of NBA teams making costly mistakes by not worrying about a seemingly distant future.
If Miami is going to possibly pay a heavy price down the road, the team better at least win now. We'll see whether adding Dragic makes that a reality.
New Orleans Pelicans: D
On the plus side, the Pelicans didn't really give up anything to jump into this three-team trade. The departed Salmons had played just three games since New Year's Eve, so the real cost here is taking on Williams' contract. (Williams will be waived, according to Ken Berger.) That noted, Cole doesn't solve the Pelicans' glaring need for a backup point guard -- one that took on added urgency when New Orleans learned yesterday that starter Jrue Holiday will be out at least three more weeks after aggravating the stress reaction in his lower right leg that has sidelined him since early January.
That the Heat, desperate for help at point guard, were shopping Cole even before getting Dragic should be a pretty good sign he's not the answer. After showing some progress toward becoming a useful rotation player last season, Cole has backslid this season, making just 26.5 percent of his 3-point attempts. Remarkably, he rates worse by ESPN's real plus-minus than departed former Pelicans backup Austin Rivers.
Phoenix Suns: B+
It's unclear whether reports that Suns majority owner Robert Sarver intended to hang on to Dragic were a bluff or whether the owner was talked out of a self-defeating stance. Either way, the Suns did reasonably well when put in a tough spot by Dragic's public trade demand. Phoenix was unable to get the promising young player it wanted in a Dragic package -- his insistence on going to markets with few talented prospects made that almost impossible -- but did get a pair of lottery picks.
Whether this scenario was better than re-signing Dragic is a different matter, though I'm not sure a team with as many young players as Phoenix should necessarily be giving a 29-year-old player a five-year max deal. In the end, getting picks for Dragic might be for the best.
Kudos to Suns GM Ryan McDonough for getting Miami to give up an unprotected 2021 first-round pick. It's possible that McDonough won't even be around to see that pick in six years, but it has the chance to be a major boon to the franchise.