ESPN analyst P.J. Carlesimo, who made the leap from coaching college (at Seton Hall) to the NBA (with the Portland Trail Blazers) two decades ago, has an important criteria for the success or failure of any current college coach hoping to follow in his footsteps:
"Contract situation, relationship with the general manager or owner," he said. "I think that would be critical. In terms of the actual coaching, you just need a good roster."
Carlesimo is the only head coach hired directly from the NCAA ranks without any NBA experience to post an above-.500 record in recent NBA history, and he freely admits that's a product of the Blazers' talent. Portland was three seasons removed from losing in the NBA Finals when Carlesimo arrived, and while the Blazers traded Clyde Drexler midway through Carlesimo's first season, they replaced him with veteran talent.
That's the exception for most college coaches, who take over teams that are either just starting the rebuilding process (like Tim Floyd in Chicago and the most recent hire, Brad Stevens in Boston) or have already bottomed out.
"You're dead in the water before you even start," Carlesimo said.
A good relationship with the front office can also help coaches overcome an inevitable slow start.
"There's a tiny bit of a learning curve," said Carlesimo. "It's just learning the league. In the Big East, I was totally comfortable. I knew all the coaches, I knew all the players because I had been coaching in the league for 12 years. It was an advantage. If I had taken a job on the other coast in the Pac-10, it would have been a little bit of a learning curve too."
The numbers actually suggest it might be a big learning curve. In terms of John Hollinger's wins versus expectation metric, which sets a baseline using the team's performance the previous two seasons and the pull of .500, college coaches to enter the league in the last two decades have been much more successful in Year 2 -- and not entirely because of how unfair this measure is to coaches like Floyd and Stevens. While results after that have been mixed, Carlesimo's best season in Portland was his third year, when the Blazers won 49 games. (They won 46 the following season under successor Mike Dunleavy.)
COLLEGE-TO-NBA COACHES, WINS VS. EXPECTATIONS
There's something generally missing from the list of past college coaches to make the leap to the pros: NBA playing experience. In recent history, only Reggie Theus has followed that path. But a new generation of former NBA players is experiencing success in college that could put them on the NBA's radar. Let's take a look at three such candidates.
Tony Bennett | Virginia
With the Cavaliers unbeaten and ranked third in both polls, the nation is taking notice of Bennett's work. He's turned two programs (Washington State and Virginia) with limited history of basketball success into contenders, and he has done so with relatively little in the way of high-end talent.
Bennett would have to modify his trademark pack-line defense (developed by his father, longtime college coach Dick Bennett) to adjust to the longer NBA 3-point line. And his team's slow pace is not entirely a matter of great defense. Per KenPom.com, the Cavaliers hold the ball an average of 20.1 seconds on their offensive possessions, putting them in the NCAA's bottom 25 and butting up against the NBA's 24-second shot clock. But as Insider's John Gasaway has noted, Bennett has also built Virginia into an elite offensive attack, a testament to Bennett's versatility as a coach.
Fred Hoiberg | Iowa State
The Golden State Warriors talked to Hoiberg last summer before hiring one of the coaches to whom Hoiberg is compared: Steve Kerr. Like Kerr, Hoiberg is a former NBA sharpshooter with front-office experience. Before taking the job at his alma mater, Hoiberg spent four seasons as an executive with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Hoiberg's up-tempo style (the Cyclones rank third in fastest offensive possessions), emphasis on the 3-pointer and creativity building his offense around unique talents like Royce White and current star Georges Niang have also drawn comparisons to fellow Iowa State product Jeff Hornacek. The Mayor may not want to leave his hometown of Ames, but if he does, he's got an excellent chance of succeeding in the pros.
Kevin Ollie | Connecticut
Ollie opted to return to his alma mater over joining an NBA coaching staff when he retired in 2010. Two years later, he replaced the legendary Jim Calhoun as head coach. Two years after that, the Huskies were national champions. Ollie could stay and build a dynasty but may opt for the challenge of the NBA. He was linked to the Lakers' job last summer before signing a new five-year contract at UConn.
It's too early yet for Ollie to have a defined style, but a two-guard front helped get the best out of playmakers Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier during the Huskies' NCAA tournament run and would translate to the NBA. More than anything, the respect Ollie commanded from teammates like LeBron James and Kevin Durant during his playing career would serve him well in the pros.
"The fact that he played in the league, the fact that he knows the players and has the respect of so many of the players, I think he would be excellent," said Carlesimo.
There are also two college coaches who washed out in their previous NBA head-coaching jobs but could be more successful this time around.
John Calipari | Kentucky
Should Calipari decide to walk away from his recruiting factory in Lexington, there will surely be NBA interest. Calipari's focus on developing his players for the pros -- which he's done better than anyone else in the one-and-done era -- would serve him well in the pro game, and he's shown flexibility in his system throughout his time at Kentucky. Calipari's first NBA stint with the New Jersey Nets was hardly a disaster -- he led the Nets to their only playoff appearance in a seven-year span -- and an owner comfortable turning his basketball operations over to him could find success.
Larry Krystkowiak | Utah
The other Coach K didn't technically qualify for the list of college-to-NBA transitions because he spent most of the 2006-07 season as an assistant coach for the Milwaukee Bucks before replacing Terry Stotts at the helm. He's also coached a year in the D-League and played in the NBA for nine seasons. Krystkowiak has quickly turned a Utah program that was reeling when he arrived into a top-10 team, finding NBA talent in the junior college ranks (Delon Wright) and overseas (Jakob Poeltl).