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You might notice something the top three players in our 2014 Insider top 25 under 25 rankings of young NBA talent have in common. Big Blue Nation surely will. The three players our voting panel considers most promising in the league -- Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall -- all played for coach John Calipari at Kentucky.
Calipari's influence extends beyond the top three. Kentucky products Brandon Knight (21) and Julius Randle (23) appear lower on the list, and Nerlens Noel also received a vote. The list reinforces the theory that when it comes to producing NBA talent, at this point there's Calipari -- and everyone else.
One-and-done domination
Since arriving in Lexington in 2009, Calipari has played a different game than the rest of the big-time college hoops programs.
It's not just the quantity of Calipari's one-and-done prospects that stands out. Instead, their quality is the defining feature. Remarkably, Kentucky's freshmen have produced more wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric (113) than all other one-and-done prospects in the same time frame combined (74).
In fact, Cousins (35), Wall (31) and Davis (29) have individually produced more WARP than any other other college's freshmen have combined since Calipari arrived at Kentucky.
NBA WARP by college, 2010-present
When all prospects are included, Calipari and the Wildcats no longer dominate quite so dramatically. But they're far and away No. 1 in both NBA players produced in the past five years (18, six more than No. 2 Kansas) and WARP (125) produced by those players.
Kentucky's NBA products have provided more WARP than the next three best schools (Connecticut, Fresno State and Georgetown) combined and nearly a quarter of all WARP by players entering the league in that span.
Comparing Kentucky's talent
The answer to such impressive Calipari statistics might be simple: Of course his players have the most success in the NBA, because Calipari gets the best prospects. That's true, certainly, but it might be a tad overstated with the benefit of hindsight. Let's take a look at the 15 consensus best prospects from the past five college seasons, as rated using a survey of recruiting services by RSCIhoops.com.
Certainly, Kentucky's haul is enviable. Of the 15 top-rated players in the past five years, seven have matriculated in Lexington. However, plenty of top prospects have headed elsewhere, including some rated better than Calipari's recruits.
Best prep prospects, 2009-13
In 2009, for example, Cousins was "only" the third-rated prep prospect available, behind Kentucky teammate Wall and the No. 1 recruit, Georgia Tech-bound Favors. And even after Cousins destroyed everything in his path up through the Wildcats' Elite Eight upset at the hands of West Virginia, he still went fifth in the 2010 draft behind Wall, Evan Turner, Favors and Wesley Johnson. While the questions about Cousins centered more on his maturity than his ability, he wasn't a sure thing entering college.
That uncertainty is hammered home by some of the top prospects who went elsewhere. The hype around Barnes, Muhammad and Rivers proved dramatically overstated, as they disappointed in college to varying degrees and started slowly in the NBA. All three players have shown improvement this season, but they project as quality role players rather than the stars Calipari has produced.
While it's far too early to judge the NBA careers of most players on this list, including the 2014 rookies, to date just one of the prospects who went elsewhere has developed into an All-Star (Irving), compared to the three Calipari has produced.
Calipari's overachievers
We can formalize the unique nature of Kentucky's NBA products by setting an expectation for pro production based on prep ratings. Returning to the group of one-and-done products (to minimize the effect of players entering the league at different ages) and adding players from 2006 (the first season of the NBA's age limit) through Calipari's move to Lexington, we can estimate typical production for each rating.
On average, a player with a perfect 100 rating like Wiggins can be expected to produce 12 WARP in his first four seasons in the NBA. A player with a rating near 90 like Tristan Thompson of the Cleveland Cavaliers (about the 10th-best prospect in his class) would be expected to produce 10 WARP.
By this measure, Kevin Love is the biggest NBA overachiever, producing 35 more WARP than expected in his first four seasons, followed by Kevin Durant (plus-29), Derrick Rose (plus-22), Cousins (plus-21) and Davis (plus-19 through his first three seasons).
Production by one-and-dones
Adding those figures up, Kentucky's nine one-and-done prospects who played before this season have collectively produced 47 more WARP than expected, the most of any college since the age limit. No. 3 on the list? Memphis, with three players (Rose, Tyreke Evans and Shawne Williams) who played for Calipari before he changed schools.
Calipari's NBA track record isn't perfect. Players like Daniel Orton and Marquis Teague have quickly washed out of the league after making limited impact. But his hits far outweigh his misses, even when considering the talent he has had to mold. That's not necessarily because of Calipari's coaching. Given his emphasis on NBA success -- he famously (or infamously) called the 2010 draft, when Wall and Cousins were among four Wildcats taken in the first round, "the biggest day in the history of Kentucky's program" -- it's possible that Calipari is recruiting for NBA skill more than the college production recruiting rankings are seeking to project.
Still, considering his players are doing just fine at the college level -- Kentucky has reached three Final Fours and won a national championship in the past five years -- along with the NBA production of his players, it's clear Calipari is playing his unique game better than any other coach.
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.