Remember last week when I noted that Virginia's undefeated record and lofty No. 3 ranking in the polls were being viewed with some degree of skepticism?
Well, in the week since that post, the Cavaliers have managed to both remain undefeated and support the skeptics.
First, Tony Bennett's team trailed Davidson by as many as 14 points before prevailing at home 83-72. Then the Hoos blew an 18-point halftime lead before somehow escaping with an 89-80 win in double overtime at Miami.
Leave your stereotypes at the door: Virginia is winning with offense
As those final scores would indicate, these are not defensive slugfests that Bennett's 13-0 team is winning. Not only has Virginia scored 1.25 points per possession during the past two games, but Virginia has had to score 1.25 points per possession, or something close to it. Otherwise you're looking at a Cavaliers team that's 11-2 and ranked somewhere down in the teens.
Of course, it's possible and perhaps even advisable to see this glass as half full. Scoring 1.25 points per trip is plainly excellent, and with Justin Anderson and Anthony Gill, the Hoos have a scoring combination that's the equal of any tandem in the ACC. (And that's saying something.) Throw in Malcolm Brogdon (who received buzz in the preseason as a potential All-American) and Mike Tobey (suddenly an irresistible force on the offensive glass) and you have a unit that can rival Duke's as the No. 1 offense in the league.
Still, you have to admit this looks pretty strange. Bennett's name is synonymous with suffocating defense, yet during the past six games, Virginia opponents have scored a shockingly normal 0.95 points per possession -- and that's with Harvard's meager 27-point showing included. Looking at just the last two games, the Hoos have allowed Davidson and Miami to score a combined 1.10 points per trip.
How can this be happening? For one thing, opponent turnovers have disappeared more or less since the beginning of December. During those past six games, teams playing Virginia have given the ball away on just 12.8 percent of their possessions. Meaning, in effect, every Cavalier opponent gets to be Wisconsin for a game; there will be no turnovers.
A relative lack of takeaways need not be fatal, to be sure, but in the Hoos' case an extremely high number of opponent field goal attempts combined with average or better 2-point shooting by all recent foes not named Harvard has resulted in an odd state of affairs in Charlottesville: Virginia's "weakness" is its defense.
Surprisingly good Maryland benefits from a surprising confluence of events
If it's excellent defense you seek from a legacy ACC program, may I suggest you look past those high-scoring, defense-optional Cavaliers and instead direct your attention toward Maryland? Mark Turgeon's team has introduced itself to the Big Ten by playing defense in a way that would do Bob Knight or Gene Keady proud.
The Terrapins are 2-0 in conference play, having held Michigan State and Minnesota to just 0.81 points per possession. Moreover, freshman Melo Trimble is emerging as a star in the eyes of fans, opposing coaches and, most crucially, referees. In conference play, Trimble is averaging double-digit per-game scoring from the free throw line alone.
In a season when the Big Ten as a whole has been something of a disappointment, rookie member Maryland has been a most welcome addition. From my chair, there have been three aspects of the Terps' season that have been particularly surprising:
1. Jake Layman. I'm not hearing nearly enough about this guy. He has improved his 2-point accuracy from last season by 20 percentage points (from 44 to 64 percent), and he has done so while increasing his workload on offense significantly. True, to this point his efficiency has been mostly of the supporting-player variety alongside Trimble and Dez Wells. Then again, it's at least possible Layman is ready to record more 21-point efforts like the one he uncorked at Oklahoma State. Give him the rock, Coach Turgeon!
2. Perimeter karma. Michigan State and Minnesota went 8-of-44 from beyond the arc against the Terps. Right now, you're thinking that this particular water will eventually find its level, and strictly speaking, you're correct. Opponents will start shooting better than 18 percent on their 3s against Maryland, and as a result, those opponents will do better than 0.81 points per trip. But wag your finger at actual events all you want; those games are in the book.
3. Timing. In any of the previous four seasons, a team as good as Maryland would rank as perhaps the fourth-, fifth- or even sixth-best outfit in Jim Delany's league. In this season's "down" Big Ten, however, it may be that the Terps are stronger than any team in the conference besides Wisconsin.
Eight months ago, Turgeon's program suffered a rash of transfers and the coach's future in College Park was being called into question. Now the Terrapins are ranked No. 12 in the nation at 14-1. It's fair to say that Maryland has made its presence known in the Big Ten.
Don't give Seton Hall extra credit for Isaiah Whitehead's absence
Kevin Willard is coming off arguably the best week of his tenure at Seton Hall, with wins over No. 15 St. John's and previously undefeated No. 6 Villanova. This week, the Pirates will likely crack the Associated Press Top 25, and more importantly, SHU sits atop the Big East standings at 2-0 (alongside DePaul, the only other team in the league that's played two home games). Indeed, Seton Hall looks like a good bet to return to its first NCAA tournament since 2006.
In other words, it's time to give credit where credit is due in Jersey. Start with Willard, most certainly, who in his fifth season has resurrected a previously moribund program. And don't forget leading scorer Sterling Gibbs, who has connected on exactly half (33 of 66) of his 3-point attempts.
But is it really so astonishing that Willard, Gibbs & Co. have accomplished all of the above in the absence of Isaiah Whitehead? The freshman guard has sat out the past three games with a stress fracture in his right foot, and no less an observer than Willard has made it clear that Whitehead is missed: "That kid is a special young man."
My question is simply whether Whitehead, at this stage in his development as a player, is unique or even particularly irreplaceable (much less a "freshman sensation") for Seton Hall.
This season, the Pirates have played five games against opponents that look capable of securing an at-large NCAA tournament bid: George Washington, Wichita State, Georgia, St. John's and Villanova. Whitehead was available for the first three games in that sequence and absent for the last two. With Whitehead on the floor against the Colonials, Shockers and Bulldogs, Seton Hall scored just 0.88 points per possession, a miserable figure attributable mostly to SHU's uncharacteristically poor showing on the road at UGA (47 points in 69 possessions). Against the Johnnies and the Wildcats, conversely, Seton Hall scored 1.09 points per trip without Whitehead.
These are small sample sizes, naturally, and I'm not suggesting for an instant that the Pirates' effectiveness on offense has increased because Whitehead is on the shelf. I am suggesting that -- with the obvious exception of defensive rebounding -- just about everything that Whitehead was doing can be done as well if not better by Gibbs, who may be shorter, lighter and therefore not as promising as a pro prospect but is also far more experienced than his freshman teammate.
This season, Gibbs has been more accurate from both sides of the arc than Whitehead, and his turnover rate is far lower. With additional support available in the form of Khadeen Carrington, Seton Hall would seem to be well-situated to weather Whitehead's injury.
The outstanding features of Seton Hall's offense in its two conference victories have been, from top to bottom, a lack of turnovers, an abundance of free throws and a high number of offensive rebounds. Among Pirates averaging 16 minutes per game or more this season, Whitehead has the highest turnover rate and the lowest FT rate. The freshman is clearly blessed with exceptional potential, but in the short term, SHU has been fortunate that his particular skills are also found among his teammates. Praise Willard accordingly.
Don't attribute St. John's struggles to Rysheed Jordan's absence (yet)
While we're on the subject of sidelined Big East players who were top-20 recruits nationally out of high school, St. John's point guard Rysheed Jordan was suspended late last week for unspecified reasons by coach Steve Lavin. After losing at home to Butler 73-69, the Johnnies are 0-2 in conference play and speculation is rampant that Jordan will not be returning anytime soon.
St. John's is dangerously thin, with just five players whom Lavin has entrusted with regular minutes. That's not ideal, and it's also true that Jordan was making nearly half his 2s. Clearly, this team's prospects are brighter if Lavin's star is available.
Jordan's presence against the Bulldogs, however, most likely wouldn't have altered one rather remarkable bottom line: SJU's first two conference opponents (Seton Hall and BU) managed to sink 49 percent of their 3s. To this (very early) point in the conference season, the success of the Johnnies' opponents from beyond the arc ranks No. 1 for statistical aberrance out of 170 team metrics in Big East play.
Even in its present underpopulated state, St. John's can and will look better on defense just as soon as opponents hit an ordinary number of shots from the perimeter.
South Carolina is like a normal-talent version of Kentucky
Every time Frank Martin gets a new job, the college basketball world scratches its head. When Martin was tapped to replace Bob Huggins at Kansas State before the 2007-08 season, many observers wondered whether this anonymous assistant coach was up to the task of handling Michael Beasley during his one collegiate season. In 2012, when Martin jumped from K-State to South Carolina, of all places, those same observers questioned why an established head coach would want to inherit one of the SEC's numerous football-addled, perennial also-rans.
Don't pencil in the Gamecocks for the SEC title just yet, but you have to admit that Martin has worked wonders. South Carolina is shutting down opponents on defense, and when you hold No. 9 Iowa State to 60 points in 73 possessions, you're doing something right.
Most impressively, Martin is getting this level of defense without the sky-high foul rates that have plagued his previous teams in Columbia and Manhattan. Laimonas Chatkevicius and Demetrius Henry are altering shots, and the team's fortunes are rising accordingly.
Yes, this is still a South Carolina team that has losses to Charlotte and Akron on its résumé, but Martin has brought this group along much faster than anyone anticipated. With their emphasis on interior defense and offensive boards (not to mention their spotty perimeter shooting), the Gamecocks may even remind you of a certain SEC team from Lexington, Kentucky. Fortunately the schedule makers have given us two games between these two stylistically similar teams -- on Jan. 24 and Valentine's Day -- so we'll get to see what happens when strength meets strength.