Now that Kentucky has made it past its first true road game, recording a 58-50 victory at Louisville, the "run the table" talk can really get going in earnest. As was the case with Wichita State last season, that talk could be with us for a while.
The SEC is as mediocre as you've heard, and in recent years the league has proved remarkably hospitable to undefeated records. Far stranger things have happened, goodness knows, than John Calipari's group tipping off the 2015 NCAA tournament with a "0" in the loss column.
Before we settle in for what promises to be a suspenseful and riveting pursuit, however, I have a request: Can we please stop talking about Kentucky as though it's a normal team? More specifically, can we cease and desist from fretting about foul trouble for individual players or pondering which lineups work best for Calipari?
Why Kentucky is completely misunderstood
Barring the most massive wave of injuries or suspensions seen in recent years, things like foul trouble and personnel choices just don't matter as much with a nine-player rotation of players who were rated as top-40 recruits nationally out of high school. Calipari's margin for error, injury or mishap may be unprecedented.
There's been a good deal of speculation, for example, that UK's platoon system could fade away if and when an opponent gives the Wildcats a game. Sure enough, against the Cardinals, the nine-man pseudo-platoon rotation was shortened somewhat. The "losers," relatively speaking, in this shortened bench could be Dakari Johnson and Marcus Lee, who combined for just 21 minutes on a day when six Wildcats logged 23 minutes or better.
So let's say Johnson and Lee are at the end of the bench in non-blowouts. Just imagine if Calipari is ever "forced" to play Johnson, for example. The Wildcats will then be in the perilous position of having to rely on quite possibly their best individual offensive rebounder, a player who's more or less the identical twin of Willie Cauley-Stein in terms of block percentage and a prospect who's projected as a 2015 first-round pick.
Or consider the suddenly popular question of whether Calipari might not be better off giving more minutes at point guard to Tyler Ulis at the expense of Andrew Harrison. Ulis is a 5-foot-9 freshman whose infrequent shots have almost invariably found the bottom of the net. Harrison, by stark contrast, is a 6-6 sophomore who shoots as often as the next starter yet has connected on just 38 percent of his 2-pointers in his career.
Ulis is a good bet to be one of the two best perimeter-shooting options -- along with Devin Booker -- this season on a team that's not very good at perimeter shooting. But keep in mind that, precisely to the extent that Ulis sees his workload on offense increase, his shooting percentages are likely to decrease. Meanwhile, despite Harrison's catastrophic six-turnover showing against the Cards, the "point guard stats" (assist and turnover percentages) for both players are fairly similar on the season as a whole.
On paper, Harrison and Ulis both have nice steal percentages, but in truth both numbers are almost entirely the doing of Providence point guard Kris Dunn, who was kind enough to contribute a whopping 10 turnovers to the Wildcats when the two teams met up last month. And while Ulis is an aggressive defender, all things considered, opposing guards would probably rather see him on the floor than an opponent who's nine inches taller. In effect, Calipari has two good options at point guard, just like he does at pretty much every position on the floor.
So tweet out Cauley-Stein's fourth foul if you must or argue that Ulis deserves to start if you wish, but please remember the true stakes here. When Plan B is Johnson or Harrison, our normal habits of basketball discourse arguably do Kentucky something less than descriptive justice.
Maybe Virginia has pro talent after all
For a second consecutive season, Virginia is proving to be much better statistically than anyone had reason to expect, and for a second consecutive season, I'm sensing some skepticism regarding that fact. The doubts seem to arise from the fact that Tony Bennett lacks any surefire NBA prospects.
Perhaps we should make that "lacked," past tense. Justin Anderson has started the season playing like a national player of the year candidate, and the scouts at the next level have most certainly noticed. So far on the young season, the 6-6 junior has drained 54 percent of his 2s and a rather ridiculous 60 percent of his 3s. As my colleague Chad Ford puts it, if Anderson keeps knocking down 3s, "NBA teams will come running."
Not that Anderson is a one-man show in Charlottesville. The Cavaliers have attacked the paint relentlessly this season, attempting 46 percent of their shots at the rim. (Fun fact: Kentucky shoots more 3s, as a percentage of its attempts, than Virginia does.) And now that Bennett is apparently a believer in offensive rebounding, both Mike Tobey and Anthony Gill are recording a high number of putbacks. As a result, Virginia's 2-point accuracy clocks in at 53.4, or almost exactly 20 percentage points better than what opponents have been able to muster against this defense.
The Hoos are a cinch to rise to No. 3 in the nation in the upcoming Associated Press poll, after a week in which both Arizona and Louisville suffered their first defeats. With a potential first-round pick in a featured role on offense and what is clearly -- per usual with Bennett -- one of the finest defenses in the nation, one could well ask whether this ranking shouldn't have come sooner.
Speaking of Arizona's first loss ...
Stanley Johnson alone can't replace Nick Johnson and Aaron Gordon
The Wildcats' 71-67 defeat on the road at UNLV last week was surprising but not necessarily stunning. Sean Miller's team had been 4-0 in games decided by five points or less, and that karma finally ran out.
Arizona is still the favorite to win the Pac-12, but what may be fairly said of Miller's team is that these are not your 2013-14 Wildcats. Stanley Johnson has inherited the featured scorer role that was filled so capably last season by Nick Johnson, and the freshman plainly has the ability to be "the man" in this offense. (Ask Michigan. In just 27 minutes against the Wolverines, Johnson scored 17 points on 8-of-10 shooting.)
The problem in Tucson, relatively speaking, is on defense, where opponents are faring better against a front line of Johnson, Brandon Ashley and Kaleb Tarczewski than they did last season against Nick Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Tarczewski. Opponents are making 43 percent of their 2s this season. That qualifies as very good defense on the part of the Cats, but it's still below the standard set by Miller's outstanding 2013-14 team. And if Arizona isn't shutting down opponents completely and remorselessly on D, it's an open question whether this group can reach the Elite Eight for a second consecutive season.
While Fred VanVleet struggles on offense, his team struggles on D
Having already suffered defeats at Utah and on a neutral floor to George Washington, Wichita State has lost more games this season than it did in the entirety of 2013-14. Granted, we're talking about a total of three losses over the course of two seasons, but at a minimum, it's true that the Shockers have looked surprisingly normal in 2014-15.
Don't blame Ron Baker. The 6-4 junior has been every bit as good as expected, taking on a larger role in the offense this season while continuing to hit shots from both sides of the arc. His teammate Fred VanVleet, on the other hand, has been mired in what can only be termed a slump, at least in terms of scoring. The preseason All-American is still an outstanding point guard, but his shooting percentages have declined sharply on both his 3s and (especially) his 2s.
Meanwhile, WSU has suffered from a bit of bad luck as a team, as opponents have lit up Gregg Marshall's club to the tune of 38 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The Shockers have also lost a good deal of size defensively in the paint since Cleanthony Early, Chadrack Lufile and Kadeem Coleby departed after their senior seasons. With Northern Iowa playing much better on defense this season (while repeating 2013-14's sky-high efficiency on offense), the Missouri Valley race could be far more interesting than previously anticipated.
Kansas' incredible streak of Big 12 titles is clearly in jeopardy
The Big 12 is by common acclamation the best conference in the nation, with seven of its 10 members currently ranked in the AP Top 25. That fact, more than anything else, explains why Kansas is at risk for seeing its amazing streak of 10 consecutive shared or outright conference titles come to an end. As odd as it may sound, KU may turn out to be just one really good team among several in its league this season.
We're in Year 2 of a strange new era in Lawrence, one where the once mighty Kansas defense is merely very good. That will never look entirely appropriate, but for better or worse, it has been the state of affairs at KU since Jeff Withey left campus.
Bill Self's best rim protector is arguably Cliff Alexander, and while the freshman did record a four-block performance in the Jayhawks' 61-56 neutral-floor victory over Michigan State last month, KU opponents this season have nevertheless managed to connect on 47 percent of their 2-point attempts. With Hunter Mickelson and Landen Lucas apparently relegated to cameo appearances, Kansas is likely fated to see what it can do with a rotation where every player is 6-8 or shorter.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Big 12 has, finally, caught up with the Jayhawks. There's a good probability that teams like Texas and Oklahoma, at a minimum, will turn out to be stronger than any league rival KU has had since the Missouri team that went 30-5 in 2011-12. The Longhorns could have the league's best defense, while Iowa State may lay claim to the conference's most efficient offense. None of this precludes Kansas from emerging with at least a share of the Big 12 title, but if it does happen, it figures to be a nail-biter.
Buy your Georgetown stock now
If you like close games (and your viewing access to "Cardiac" Colorado State is limited), Georgetown is definitely the team for you. Every time the Hoyas play a major-conference opponent, the game has been decided by six points or less. John Thompson III's team even won an 81-78 contest against Charlotte for good measure, just to keep things good and entertaining. And now with Georgetown's 91-87 win over Indiana in overtime at Madison Square Garden, the thrills have just kept on coming.
In a season where everyone is waiting for a team to challenge Villanova in the Big East, GU is worth a look. In the preseason, I thought that challenger might be Xavier, and right now the polls have identified that team as St. John's. While the Musketeers and Johnnies may give Jay Wright a run for his money, one thing I like about the Hoyas is that I have a feeling we may already have seen them at their worst.
Featured scorer D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera entered the IU game shooting 27 percent on his 3s for the season. He promptly blew up against the Hoosiers, with 29 points on 5-of-7 shooting beyond the arc. Talented freshmen like L.J. Peak and Paul White have made the jump to the big time and should develop in the weeks to come. (Heck, the 6-9 White even pulled down his first collegiate offensive rebound against Indiana. Wonders never cease!) And I'll go way out on a limb and predict that Hoyas opponents will not continue to make 75 percent of their free throws this season. The Big East will not lack for really good teams in 2014-15, but Georgetown may rank No. 1 in the league for growth potential.
Always listen to Dan Dakich. (Duh.)
This week, my colleague Mr. Dakich asked why teams can't score anymore. Dan was writing in the aftermath of Kentucky holding UCLA to seven first-half points, not to mention Virginia holding Harvard to just eight points before halftime. Was he misled by recency effect and a reliance on anecdotal evidence? Far from it, my friend, far from it. Always trust my colleague, Dan Dakich.
Per-possession scoring has decreased compared to the same period last season. And when we compare season totals from the entirety of 2013-14 to what we've seen in 2014-15, the differences are stark. Per Ken Pomeroy's data, the largest year-to-year discrepancies in Division I medians are:
1. Opponent turnover percentage. This season, the median figure has shot up to 19.9 percent, meaning effectively one in every five early-season trips has ended in a giveaway.
2. Opponent free throw rate. Fouling is down this season, which is good news for spectators and, strictly speaking, bad news for scoring. Free throws are easy to make, so when fouling is down, so are points.
Not only is Dan correct, but if he wants to launch a Dakich-esque lament to the effect that no one knows how to play point guard or take care of the ball, the stats, for now, back him up. Lament away, Dan.