The NBA's Most Valuable Player award isn't decided in December, and nearly three-quarters of the schedule remains to see how things will shake out. Still, now that the sample sizes are becoming more useful, it's time to see what a statistically driven ballot for MVP might look like.
Here's my take on the top five, featuring my wins above replacement player (WARP) stat and the WAR stat derived from ESPN's real plus-minus.
1. Stephen Curry | PG | Golden State Warriors
WARP: 5.3 (3rd) | RPM WAR: 4.1 (1st)
2. James Harden | SG | Houston Rockets
WARP: 5.4 (2nd) | RPM WAR: 4.0 (2nd)
At this point of the season, Curry and Harden are nearly indistinguishable in most value metrics. Besides the listed ones, they're second and third in Basketball-Reference.com's win shares (Harden 4.7, Curry 4.6) and first and second in value over replacement-level player (Curry 7.8, Harden 7.6).
If things continue this way, for the first time the MVP discussion will have to include the question of how to account for differing philosophies on a player's minutes. You see, while Curry and Harden might be nearly identical in terms of total value, they've gotten there in different ways. Each of the metrics, along with PER, considers Curry more valuable on a per-minute basis. Harden evens the gap by playing more minutes -- 37.6, compared to 33.4 for Curry.
Because both Curry and Harden are dramatically better than their backups -- both teams are at least 15 points per 100 possessions worse with their star guards on the bench -- those extra minutes are valuable, which is why it's important to consider value above a replacement-level player. However, it's not as if Curry is incapable of playing more minutes; he averaged 36.5 per game in 2013-14, and 38.2 the season before. New Warriors coach Steve Kerr has limited the playing time of all his starters, none of whom are averaging 34 minutes per game.
Since no San Antonio Spurs have been serious MVP candidates in recent seasons, this issue has yet to touch the MVP discussion, but it certainly will this year. Voters will have to decide whether to credit Curry for minutes he could have played, or whether limited playing time has helped his per-minute effectiveness. My personal sense is that it's a tiebreaker. If Curry and Harden are as close as they are now, I'd lean toward Curry. But if Harden (or anyone else) has a clear edge, including minutes played, I'm inclined to favor him.
3. Anthony Davis | PF | New Orleans Pelicans
WARP: 6.3 (1st) | RPM WAR: 3.9 (3rd)
The other interesting question on this year's MVP ballot will be Davis, the strongest candidate from a non-elite team in recent memory. Davis leads the league in WARP and win shares (4.7) and his 33.1 PER would be the best in NBA history.
Some voters will simply dismiss Davis' candidacy because, if the season ended today, he'd be on a non-playoff team (just barely). But I don't think that's fair. First, we're not talking about a player on a bad team. If the Pelicans were in the East, they would be the No. 7 seed right now. Which conference his team happens to be in shouldn't affect Davis' value.
Second, before Davis suffered a chest contusion that caused him to miss most of the last two games -- a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers and an overtime loss to the Warriors -- New Orleans had been a disaster without its star. The Pelicans have been outscored by 10.2 points per 100 possessions with Davis on the bench, per NBA.com/Stats -- worse than the Rockets without Harden during Dwight Howard's absence (minus-9.1 per 100), for example. Without Davis, this New Orleans team has been among the league's worst.
I do think it's fair to ask whether Davis' gaudy stats overstate his value. Because the Pelicans' defense is so bad (27th in the NBA overall in defensive rating, and tied for 22nd even with Davis on the court, per NBA.com/Stats), he fares best in stats like PER that don't consider team defense, and he's worse in stats that do (particularly the lineup-driven RPM). So I don't think Davis has been MVP, but he can't fall any further than third on the ballot.
4. Chris Paul | PG | Los Angeles Clippers
WARP: 5.2 (4th) | RPM WAR: 3.1 (8th)
With Blake Griffin scuffling during the first month and a half of the season, there's no question who has been the Clippers' most valuable player. And Paul is shooting 50 percent from the field (55.5 percent on 2-pointers) with the best assist-to-turnover ratio of his career.
5. LeBron James | SF | Cleveland Cavaliers
WARP: 4.6 (5th) | RPM WAR: 2.9 (11th)
It's strange how quickly James' MVP candidacy has been written off. He's less than a win behind the Curry/Harden duo in WARP, and those players certainly could regress after their fast starts. My in-season SCHOENE projections, which combine preseason projections with performance to date, still have James finishing with the league's highest WARP total. If he plays his best basketball in the second half, and the Cavaliers come back to win the East, a fifth MVP is a realistic possibility.
Others worth considering
Marc Gasol | C | Memphis Grizzlies
WARP: 3.9 (8th) | RPM WAR: 2.4 (22nd)
Gasol has gotten buzz as part of the Curry/Harden group on fast-starting West teams. Statistically, however, he doesn't quite belong. In particular, the Grizzlies haven't been dramatically better with Gasol on the court -- just 3.1 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com/Stats. Gasol has a strong backup in Kosta Koufos, but that also illustrates that Memphis' success is a team effort.
Damian Lillard | PG | Portland Trail Blazers
WARP: 4.5 (6th) | RPM WAR: 3.3 (6th)
LaMarcus Aldridge is still thought of as the most valuable Blazer, but Lillard's strong start demands recognition. He's a top-10 player in most value measures, and the Blazers have missed Lillard more than Aldridge when they've been on the bench.
Kyle Lowry | PG | Toronto Raptors
WARP: 4.1 (7th) | RPM WAR: 3.3 (7th)
Lowry's strong start can't be considered a fluke since he was a top-10 player by WARP last season. However, the Raptors have actually been better with Lowry on the bench because their second unit has been so remarkably effective this season.
News and notes
Warriors' win-streak odds
• Behind Curry's 34 points (in a season-high-tying 40 minutes!), Golden State extended its winning streak to 16 games, the longest in the NBA this season. Nonetheless, the Warriors are only slight favorites Tuesday night when they visit the Grizzlies on ESPN. If Golden State can get past that game, and Thursday's visit by the Oklahoma City Thunder, the streak could continue through the Christmas showdown with the L.A. Clippers.
• According to ESPN's Marc Stein, the Philadelphia 76ers are set to sign 2012 second-round pick Furkan Aldemir for approximately $12 million over four years, with partial guarantees on the last two seasons of the de facto rookie contract. (A handsome one at that; $12 million would put Aldemir around the average of the typical rookie deals for the eighth and ninth overall picks.)
Between Aldemir and Robert Covington, the Sixers have significantly upgraded their talent since the start of the season. Covington, whose translated D-League statistics suggested an NBA rotation player, has already moved into the starting lineup and played a big role in the Sixers' two wins (and an overtime loss against the Memphis Grizzlies that would've been their best win of the season so far). Covington is unlikely to continue making 47.5 percent of his 3s, but he's a legitimate perimeter threat with more gravity than Philadelphia's other options at forward.
• Brooklyn Nets rookie Cory Jefferson became a punchline last week with a 3-point air ball that went about 18 feet. Looking past that one shot -- which Jefferson good-naturedly tweeted "slipped" -- the 60th and final pick of the 2014 NBA draft has been surprisingly effective for the Nets.
With Kevin Garnett, Brook Lopez and Mirza Teletovic all sidelined Saturday, Jefferson started in a 114-87 blowout of the Charlotte Hornets. In 24 minutes, Jefferson had 11 points on 5-of-5 shooting and five boards. Brooklyn outscored Charlotte by 23 with Jefferson on the court. While he doesn't yet have NBA 3-point range, Jefferson has been able to knock down the midrange jumper (40 percent, per Basketball-Reference.com) and is active defensively. For the NBA's Mr. Irrelevant, that's a find.
Weekly top five: Set shooters
5. Jordan Hill
4. Nenê
3. Pau Gasol
2. Marc Gasol
1. Al Horford
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.