In a league with a salary cap, contracts are of paramount importance. Though the NBA's salary cap isn't a hard one, meaning teams can spend very different amounts on players, ultimately every dollar spent on one player is one that isn't spent on another. That makes good contracts the lifeblood of a contending team.
To determine the most beneficial contracts in the league, I started with the three-year projections of player performance using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and my wins above replacement (WARP) metric that I used in calculating future team power rankings. To turn those values into dollar figures, I estimated based on past contracts that teams pay an average of 3.2 percent of the salary cap (about $2 million this year) above and beyond the minimum salary for two-year veterans ($915,243) for each win above replacement. So a player projected for 10 wins would be worth approximately $20 million, and the value of his contract is the difference between that amount and his salary.
Based on that formula, here are the NBA's 10 best contracts over the next three seasons.
1. Stephen Curry | PG | Golden State Warriors
Salary rank: 56 | Projection rank: 4 | Net value: $66.8 million
The Warriors got a huge break, signing Curry right before salaries began rising and he emerged as a superstar. As a result, Golden State has an All-NBA second-teamer under contract for less money over the next three seasons than either Gordon Hayward or Chandler Parsons. Curry's boon of a contract will make it easier for the Warriors to re-sign their other young players, starting with Klay Thompson.
2. Anthony Davis | PF | New Orleans Pelicans
Salary rank: 120 | Projection rank: 7 | Net value: $46.0 million
Superstars on rookie contracts are the NBA's most consistent source of net value to teams. Davis will make less this season than the Orlando Magic will pay Glen Davis to play for the Clippers. The Pelicans get one more year of bargain Davis before he's up for a rookie extension. Even then, Davis will be underpaid. In fact, an extension would make his contract nearly as valuable as Curry's over the next three seasons.
3. Kevin Durant | SF | Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary rank: 11 | Projection rank: 2 | Net value: $44.9 million
As is, Durant's salary is just outside the NBA's top 10. Still, the remaining two years of his contract are great value for the Thunder because his production is worth so much more than the NBA's maximum salary for players with his experience. After rookie contracts, the next-best set of values is players making the max but worth far more to their teams.
4. Chris Paul | PG | Los Angeles Clippers
Salary rank: 8 | Projection rank: 3 | Net value: $41.4 million
That group of above-max stars also includes Paul. When Paul's injury history is factored in -- specifically, 2010 surgery that cost him much of the lateral meniscus in his right knee -- there's enough risk that his contract is probably not quite this beneficial for the Clippers. Still, any team in the league would take that risk on the NBA's best point guard.
5. Dirk Nowitzki | PF | Dallas Mavericks
Salary rank: 84 | Projection rank: 12 | Net value: $40.4 million
Nowitzki could easily have re-signed for the max when he became a free agent this summer. Despite his age (36), his projected production is worth $65 million over the next three seasons. Nowitzki instead signed for just $25 million, allowing the Mavericks to use the resulting cap space to sign Parsons and upgrade their starting lineup.
6. Russell Westbrook | PG | Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary rank: 18 | Projection rank: 9 | Net value: $39.9 million
Because of the lower maximum salary for players signing rookie extensions, Westbrook is getting paid like a fringe All-Star while producing like an All-NBA player. And Oklahoma City has him under contract for the next three seasons, which is especially useful given the possibility that the cap grows faster than Westbrook's salary.
7. Andre Drummond | C | Detroit Pistons
Salary rank: 237 | Projection rank: 18 | Net value: $39.0 million
As the ninth pick in the 2012 draft, Drummond's rookie contract is even cheaper than Davis' deal. He'll make slightly less than the room exception (used this summer on free agents such as Udonis Haslem and Brian Roberts) during a season when he could emerge as an All-Star.
8. Damian Lillard | PG | Portland Trail Blazers
Salary rank: 192 | Projection rank: 20 | Net value: $35.4 million
The last of the bargains from the 2012 draft, Lillard has two seasons left on his rookie deal, like Davis and Drummond. Drummond's projection is slightly better than Lillard's because he is younger, but Lillard should continue to produce at an All-Star level while earning slightly more than Mike Scott.
9. Kyle Lowry | PG | Toronto Raptors
Salary rank: 43 | Projection rank: 10 | Net value: $35.2 million
Lowry's spot on this list is interesting because he was a free agent last summer and should have been paid his market value. Because teams were saving their money in hopes of landing LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh, Lowry never got a big offer, and quickly re-signed with the Raptors for four years and $48 million. That pays Lowry at less than All-Star level, and while he wasn't selected for the All-Star game last season, his 2013-14 performance certainly justified it. Both WARP and RPM value Lowry highly, projecting him as one of the league's top-10 players. If Lowry achieves that again, other teams may regret not prioritizing him in free agency.
10. James Harden | SG | Houston Rockets
Salary rank: 29 | Projection rank: 6 | Net value: $33.4 million
Harden will make only a few thousand dollars more than former teammate Parsons this season. No matter how dire the evaluation of Harden's defense, he's surely the more valuable player and a bargain on his rookie extension.
The Wild Card
LeBron James | F | Cleveland Cavaliers
Salary rank: 6 | Projection rank: 1 | Net value: $21.6 million
Where's LeBron? Because he can opt out of his contract next summer, it's not as valuable statistically as deals that lock in talented players for two or three seasons. If we just look at best values this year, James shoots to second on the list, behind only Davis. His projected production is worth more than $42 million. And that still might understate James' value, since it's based on a market with a salary cap and doesn't consider off-court factors. As Insider's Tom Haberstroh explored last year, in an uncapped league, James could be worth in the nine figures annually based on his value in terms of marketing, ticket sales and merchandise.