Our NBA Future Power Rankings, updated last week, use the combined expertise of four of Insider's NBA writers to project how teams will fare over the next three seasons. However, that timetable is the same as my projections of wins above replacement player (WARP) for players using the development of similar predecessors at the same age, offering the opportunity to put together objective, blind team projections for the next three seasons.
To capture the factors that influence a team's record besides the players currently on the roster, I simulated all the decisions players and teams will face over the next two offseasons -- team and player options, extensions, new contracts for free agents and more -- estimating how much money they'll have available to spend on free agents and translating this to wins based on the talent available. I also projected out the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons to estimate the average value of the first-round picks each team holds in the 2015 and 2016 NBA drafts, accounting for actual protections on each pick.
The result doesn't perfectly match what Future Power Rankings capture. It doesn't account for the quality of each individual team's management or its ability to turn cap space into talent based on the attractiveness of the market to free agents. Still, these statistical projections provide an interesting contrast to the Future Power Rankings. Let's take a look at the key takeaways and teams that project better or worse than our panel's consensus.
Top 10 teams
Takeaway: The Cavaliers have the best chance of winning multiple titles over the next three seasons.
That might not qualify as a unique insight, certainly. But in addition to having the most projected WARP on its roster over the next seasons, Cleveland also gets more value from the draft than anyone else in the top six thanks to a potential lottery pick coming from the Memphis Grizzlies. Also, the Cavaliers face less competition, with seven of the top nine teams in the projections playing in the Western Conference. Add it up, and anything short of a title over the next three seasons would be a disappointment.
Overrated: San Antonio Spurs (No. 1 in FPR, No. 6 in projected wins)
Naturally, the Spurs are going to fare worse in any projection that doesn't consider management quality. Besides that, their ability to keep contending may be tied to how long Tim Duncan puts off retirement. This projection assumes Duncan only plays the 2014-15 season, the last he's under contract. If San Antonio got Duncan all three years, only the Cavaliers would project better.
Underrated: Memphis Grizzlies (No. 16 in FPR, No. 9 in projected wins)
Looking at the graph, it's hard to distinguish the Grizzlies and the Portland Trail Blazers, who finished 10th in the Future Power Rankings. Memphis is less likely to use its cap space, which is a Plan B in case Marc Gasol leaves next summer. Still, three-year projections like the chances of Gasol and Zach Randolph to maintain their value, which would keep the Grizzlies in the second tier of West contenders.
Middle 10 teams
Takeaway: A third contender will rise in the East. We just don't know who it will be.
Four of the five teams between 10th and 14th in the projections come from the Eastern Conference. It's from this group (Charlotte, Indiana, Toronto and Washington) that the third-best team in the conference over the next three seasons will come, and they're close enough that decisions over that span and old-fashioned luck may determine which one. Of them, the Wizards have the best chance of making a big leap if they can create max cap space in the summer of 2016 and land Kevin Durant as a free agent.
Overrated: Dallas Mavericks (No. 8 in FPR, No. 15 in projected wins)
Dallas has a good shot at being one of the league's top 10 teams this season. It's more challenging to see how the Mavericks will remain there as Dirk Nowitzki ages. Dallas will likely have to choose between clearing space and re-signing starters Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis next season. The Mavericks don't get enough credit for their front office here -- nobody did a better job of maximizing free agency this summer -- but the top 10 is a little optimistic over the next three years.
Underrated: Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 27 in FPR, No. 20 in projected wins)
To rank among the bottom-five teams in the league in wins the next three seasons combined, the Timberwolves will have to go into rebuilding mode again -- something they've thus far resisted. Otherwise, Minnesota's current advantage over the bottom-feeders will be difficult to make up over that span.
Last 10 teams
Takeaway: Cap space alone is a poor way to build a team.
Over the next two summers, nobody is likely to have more cap space than the Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers. Yet they rank 29th and 30th in the league in projected wins over the next three seasons. Part of that is how much they're likely to struggle in 2014-15, particularly the Sixers. Beyond that, however, cap space isn't on average a particularly efficient way to accumulate wins because talent is so expensive in free agency. If the Lakers can land a top-tier free agent, it will accelerate their rebuilding process, but teams that have taken a leap thanks to free agency have had more talent already on the roster than the Lakers will.
Overrated: Miami Heat (No. 9 in FPR, No. 22 in projected wins)
Miami is unlikely to be one of the NBA's top 10 teams next season, and there's major downside beyond that. Help isn't coming in 2015 when the Heat will either be capped out or have to spend its space re-signing Luol Deng and Dwayne Wade in the event they opt out of their contracts. And while Miami can clear max room (and more) in 2016, the cupboard will be relatively bare aside from Chris Bosh because the Heat have so little young talent.
Underrated: Sacramento Kings (No. 29 in FPR, No. 25 in projected wins)
With the exception of Minnesota, the wins projections generally agree with Future Power Rankings when it comes to the worst of the worst. The Kings do improve slightly, largely because their poor management score doesn't come into play here. Also, while Sacramento owes the Chicago Bulls a first-round pick via Cleveland, protections mean the Kings may not deliver the pick until 2017, which is outside the scope of the Future Power Rankings.