It's fitting that by the time NBA free agency opens, most team executives are making their way to Las Vegas for the NBA Summer League. Like the slot machines and table games that are responsible for building the luxury casinos along the strip, spending money on free agents can be alluring but often costly in the long term.
Consider the cautionary tale of Jarrett Jack, signed by the Cleveland Cavaliers a year ago Saturday. When the Cavaliers needed to clear space under the salary cap to offer LeBron James the maximum salary, they had to move Jack's salary. To get out from a contract less than a year old, Cleveland had to surrender first-round picks from the previous two seasons (Tyler Zeller and Sergey Karasev), as well as a future first-round pick.
The Cavaliers weren't alone in spinning the free-agency wheel and losing a year ago. Among teams that made major signings or re-signings, I count nearly as many that regret their moves already as would do them again, and only one team that truly won free agency by getting good values. Here's how they break down, team by team.
Winners of free agency
Atlanta Hawks
PG Jeff Teague, W DeMarre Carroll, W Kyle Korver, PF Paul Millsap, C Pero Antic
During the 2013 offseason, the Hawks signed five players -- either re-signed (Teague and Korver) or acquired via free agency (Carroll and Millsap, both from the Utah Jazz, and international veteran Antic). Combined, these players made less than $30 million while helping the Hawks take the Indiana Pacers to a full seven games in '14, and that's without center Al Horford. Millsap was the biggest bargain, earning just $9.5 million for an All-Star season, but Carroll and Korver were a solid wing duo for less than $10 million combined. Give Danny Ferry the highest marks for his use of free agency.
Would do it again
Charlotte Bobcats (now Hornets)
SG Gerald Henderson, PF Josh McRoberts, C Al Jefferson
Dallas Mavericks
PG Jose Calderon, SG Monta Ellis, C Samuel Dalembert, G Devin Harris, C DeJuan Blair, C Brandan Wright
The Mavericks practically signed a whole team in free agency, and while they paid handsomely for Calderon and Ellis, the changes got them back to the postseason. Dallas ended up trading Calderon, Dalembert and guard Wayne Ellington (another new signing) to the New York Knicks in June, but that deal said more about how badly the Mavericks wanted to bring back Tyson Chandler than their desperation to move the contracts.
Denver Nuggets
SG Randy Foye, C Timofey Mozgov, PG Nate Robinson, F/C J.J. Hickson
Somehow the Nuggets saw two of their three additions in free agency (Hickson and Robinson) suffer torn ACLs. Before the injuries, the two players performed as expected, and overpaying Hickson was offset by Mozgov's emerging as a capable starting center for just $4.4 million.
Golden State Warriors
F/G Andre Iguodala, G Toney Douglas, F/C Marreese Speights, C Jermaine O'Neal
If the Warriors thought Iguodala was the last piece of a championship contender, their expectations were unrealistic. But in terms of real plus-minus, Iguodala was one of the league's most valuable contributors, and Golden State was far worse with him on the bench -- in part because Douglas and Speights, signed to help replace Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry on the second unit, flopped.
Indiana Pacers
PF David West, PG C.J. Watson, F Chris Copeland
West has shown few signs of slippage, and given his importance to the Pacers, there's no question they'd do his three-year, $36.6 million deal over again. Copeland never could find his way into Frank Vogel's rotation, but Watson was the team's best reserve.
L.A. Clippers
PG Chris Paul, SG J.J. Redick, PG Darren Collison, SF Matt Barnes
Given that the Clippers got major contributions from both Collison and Barnes, who split the team's midlevel exception, there's a case they belong in the "good value" category. The Clippers did worse in filling out the bench, with Ryan Hollins and Byron Mullens long excised from the rotation by playoff time. Obviously, they'd do the Paul deal again, and Redick was a good contract value -- though he cost the team the valuable Eric Bledsoe.
Memphis Grizzlies
SG Tony Allen, PG Jerryd Bayless, SF Mike Miller
Allen remains the league's best stopper. Paying him through age 35 is a risk, but it's one the Grizzlies would likely still take. Miller was a bargain post-amnesty, and Memphis parlayed Bayless into Courtney Lee.
New Orleans Pelicans
SF Al-Farouq Aminu, SG Tyreke Evans, SG Anthony Morrow, C Greg Stiemsma
Though Aminu started 65 games, sixth man Evans was by far the most important New Orleans signing. When he did start (22 times), Evans averaged 19.9 points, 6.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds in 35.3 minutes, with a strong .564 true shooting percentage. Evans was less effective backing up Eric Gordon, but the Pelicans were dangerous offensively when they played both together on the wing.
San Antonio Spurs
C Tiago Splitter, SG Manu Ginobili, SG Marco Belinelli
The Spurs won the NBA championship, and while Splitter played a limited role in the NBA Finals, he was invaluable defending Dirk Nowitzki and LaMarcus Aldridge in their first two playoff series. No regrets here.
Regrets
Cleveland Cavaliers
PG Jarrett Jack, F Earl Clark, C Andrew Bynum
Now things take a downward turn. The Cavaliers offered nearly $29 million combined to Jack, Clark and Bynum -- about the same amount Atlanta paid a starting five. For that investment, two of the three players were waived midseason, Bynum so the Chicago Bulls could take advantage of his partially guaranteed contract and Clark after being traded to the Philadelphia 76ers. At least those deals were short term, protecting Cleveland. Jack still has two years and $13.1 million guaranteed left on his contract, signed at the peak of his value. He dropped from 4.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) in 2012-13 to 0.6 wins worse than replacement level in 2013-14, explaining the difficulty trading him.
Detroit Pistons
PG Brandon Jennings, F Josh Smith, G Chauncey Billups, PG Will Bynum
Jennings and Smith were disastrous fits in Detroit, and both could be on the trade market as Stan Van Gundy reshapes the team. Playing at small forward, Smith was content to lob jumpers rather than make use of his athleticism and length, and Jennings' shoot-first style didn't help the Pistons' frontcourt of Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe. In his last summer in charge, Joe Dumars even struck out on smaller signings. Billups was predictably limited by injury, and Italian forward Luigi Datome couldn't get off the bench.
Milwaukee Bucks
SG O.J. Mayo, SG Gary Neal, F/G Carlos Delfino, C Zaza Pachulia
Fancying themselves contenders, the Bucks shelled out nearly $20 million in 2013-14 salary. In return, they got 0.2 WARP combined. Delfino's foot injury, which kept him out all season, was bad luck for Milwaukee. But the Bucks overpaid for veteran reserves, then saw those players chafe when the team predictably struggled. Mayo was out of shape and Neal clashed with teammate Larry Sanders before being traded to Charlotte. Now that Milwaukee is rebuilding around youth, the remaining veterans don't seem to fit the long-term plan.
Minnesota Timberwolves
SG Kevin Martin, SF Corey Brewer, C Nikola Pekovic, SF Chase Budinger
Minnesota got value from its additions and re-signing Budinger and Pekovic, certainly. However, the group wasn't good enough to get to the playoffs, and if the Timberwolves trade Kevin Love, big contracts will hamstring their ability to rebuild. Martin is already a possible sticking point in negotiations with the Warriors, and Pekovic (who still has four years and $48 million left on his deal) is blocking the progress of younger Gorgui Dieng.
New York Knicks
SG J.R. Smith, PG Pablo Prigioni
The Knicks re-signed Smith for $18 million over three seasons in the wake of his Sixth Man Award campaign and he promptly posted a .493 TS% before the All-Star break. Smith rebounded the last two months, but it was too late for New York to turn around its season. Given Smith's contract and his history of off-court transgressions, the Knicks are likely stuck with him the next two years.
Sacramento Kings
PF Carl Landry
Looking to improve quickly, the Kings gave Landry $26 million over four years despite having Patrick Patterson and Jason Thompson already on the roster at power forward. Landry's shoulder and knee injuries, which limited him to 18 games, cleared up the logjam. (Patterson was also traded as part of the Rudy Gay deal.) Now, luxury-tax concerns helped prevent Sacramento from re-signing Isaiah Thomas.
Washington Wizards
PG Eric Maynor, SF Martell Webster, PF Al Harrington
Signed to back up John Wall, Maynor was so bad the Wizards had to deal for Andre Miller midseason. The Sixers, who acquired Maynor in the trade, soon waived him and ate his guaranteed 2014-15 salary. Webster's four-year, $22 million contract will have more lasting effects. Washington's addition of Paul Pierce in free agency leaves Webster and 2013 No. 3 pick Otto Porter as reserve small forwards. And Webster recently underwent back surgery, his third one since 2010.