When it comes to draft slots, all things being equal, the higher you pick, the higher the chance you're going to add a productive player. That seems obvious, right? Well, all things aren't equal.
The human element always introduces a certain amount of chaos into the proceedings, and this is the case with the NBA draft. According to the research compiled by my colleague Tom Haberstroh as part of his DRAFT Initiative, the cumulative values produced by each draft slot do not shake out in the smooth manner in which you'd expect.
Since 1989, when the NBA moved to a two-round format, the 25 No. 1 overall picks have produced an average of 8.4 Estimated Wins Added (EWA), easily the most value compiled by any draft slot. With upper-tier Hall of Fame players such as LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal included in that calculation, this is no surprise. No. 1 picks have also exceeded their expected average EWA by 1.7 wins, the best performance of any slot. This isn't exactly breaking news, but by and large it's a great -- sometimes franchise-making -- thing to pick first, and the typical top pick carries with him at least a modicum of certainty, the 2013 draft aside (when the Cavs selected Anthony Bennett).
After that, however, things are not nearly so straightforward.
Picks No. 2 through No. 5 have produced nearly an equal amount of average value, with No. 3s slightly outperforming No. 2s over the last quarter century. There's a dip from picks No. 6 through No. 8, while No. 9s have done exceedingly well. Teams have especially bombed out when picking sixth.
The chart below illustrates the varying success of draft slots; the red line shows the smooth line that you would expect from 25 years of results, while the blue line shows just how up and down teams have been when it actually comes to making their selections.
Another fascinating part of Tom's research is the performance versus expectation of different draft groups. If you divide the slots into 10-pick groups, you find that top 10 selections as a group outperform expectation by 0.23 EWA. But that's not the leading number. The bottom 10 picks -- Nos. 51 through 60 -- outperform expectation by .39 wins. The sample sizes are much smaller for those late second-round groups because of the number of overseas players taken who never come stateside, but it's still an interesting outcome.
The positive results at the bottom of the draft are entirely due to a small group of strong-performing hidden gems. These players were all taken among the last 10 picks of their draft, but have outperformed their expected EWA by at least two wins per season: Kyle Korver, Luis Scola, Patty Mills, Ramon Sessions, Amir Johnson, Manu Ginobili, Marcin Gortat and Isaiah Thomas.
What this suggests is that rather than treat your late second-round picks as an annoyance, teams would be well-served to gamble on players their scouts think can help. There is really nothing to be lost and much to be gained.
Best draft slots
No. 1s (Average EWA 8.4)
Best pick: LeBron James (18.6 EWA over slot expectation)
Worst pick: Anthony Bennett (minus-7.9)
James has a sizable average EWA advantage over the runners-up, O'Neal and Tim Duncan. At the other end of the spectrum, it's perhaps a little unfair to declare Bennett the worst of anything after one season, but that's his starting point. If Bennett improves enough, Michael Olowokandi, at minus-6.8 EWA under expectation, will inherit his unwanted crown. Like Olowokandi, the next two worst underperformers have also been centers: Kwame Brown and Greg Oden.
No. 3s (Avg. EWA 5.4)
Best pick: Carmelo Anthony (8.5 EWA over slot expectation)
Worst picks: Adam Morrison, Otto Porter Jr. (minus-5.5)
Again, we note Porter to underscore his poor starting point. He definitely wants to get off the Morrison career track. Darius Miles and Billy Owens also rank as epic No. 3 flameouts.
Anthony and Pau Gasol are both No. 3 selections who would rank among the top three No. 2s had they been taken one spot earlier. The players taken ahead of Anthony in his draft year were James and Darko Milicic. Darko's underwhelming career is another strike against taking a big man with potential over a wing player with an established track record. Gasol, who entered the league as an accomplished international player, did not fit that profile at the time he was drafted.
No. 4s (Avg. EWA 5.2)
Best pick: Chris Paul (13.8 EWA over slot expectation)
Worst pick: Wesley Johnson (minus-5.2)
The No. 4s have also outperformed the No. 2s, with Paul contributing largely to that result. The standouts ranking behind him include Chris Bosh and Russell Westbrook. In hindsight, Westbrook was under-drafted, as he was taken after Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo. Just behind him was Kevin Love, who joins Westbrook in offering hope for teams drafting near the top of this year's draft. If the pool is deep, you don't need to have a pick at the very top to find a franchise player.
Tie: No. 2s and No. 5s (Avg. EWA 5.1)
Best picks: Kevin Durant (No. 2, 14.5 EWA above slot expectation); Kevin Garnett (No. 5, 15.4)
Worst picks: Hasheem Thabeet (No. 2, minus-5.6); Alex Len (minus-4.5)
Len has just one season under his belt. The cautionary tales ranking just behind him among the No. 5s are Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Jonathan Bender, names that make draftniks shudder.
The 5-spot has been a great slot for finding All-Stars. Besides Garnett, Dwyane Wade and Love were also taken fifth. Overall, No. 5s have outperformed expectation by 1.2 EWA, tied for the third-best figure with the No. 60s.
As for the No. 2s, Thabeet is another big man project who didn't pan out, and he was taken just ahead of James Harden. Ouch.
No. 9s (Avg. EWA 4.4)
Best pick: Dirk Nowitzki (14.7 EWA above slot expectation)
Worst pick: Eric Montross (minus-3.5)
There's a loaded group atop the leaderboard among the No. 9s: Nowitzki is joined by Tracy McGrady and Amar'e Stoudemire. But it goes beyond that star trio. In 2012, the Pistons landed a gem at No. 9 in Andre Drummond. The Bobcats got Kemba Walker at that slot the year before, and the Jazz landed Gordon Hayward the year before that. In 2007, that's where the Bulls drafted Joakim Noah. Andre Iguodala and Shawn Marion are other notable No. 9s.
Is there a commonality in play here? That's hard to say, because while the trend is notable, the samples are really small. Besides Montross, there have been many failed No. 9s, like Ed O'Bannon, Patrick O'Bryant and Tom Hammonds. Walker and Noah both spearheaded national title teams in college, and Hayward led Butler to the championship game before turning pro. Perhaps it's around this spot in the draft when teams stop being dazzled by high ceilings, and instead begin to give more weight to track record.
Worst draft slots
We can't rank the "worst" slots in quite the same way as the best, but we can focus on the spots that have been the most underperforming. Those would be spots Nos. 6 through 8, all of which have underperformed expectation by a larger degree than the No. 2s.
The No. 6s have been particularly bad. With an average EWA of 1.7, the No. 6s have produced less annual value than the No. 24s.
The thing that jumps out is that many of the busts taken at Nos. 6 through 8 have been big-man projects. The list includes Ekpe Udoh, Jan Vesely, Felton Spencer, Bismack Biyombo, DeSagana Diop and Rafael Araujo. It seems pretty clear that when it comes to drafting big men with underdeveloped skill sets, it's a case of buyer beware.