Not everyone can be a UConn fan today.
For the supporters of the other 350 Division I college programs on Tuesday morning looking for something to feel good about, I have just the thing. No, you don't have bragging rights when it comes to the NCAA tournament, but your school may have the upper hand in another competition.
Which college programs tend to outperform expectations in the NBA draft?
After all, college is just the start of a long journey of bringing glory to the school. If you've ever been around a fan of big-time programs like the Kentucky Wildcats, North Carolina Tar Heels, Duke Blue Devils, Kansas Jayhawks or UCLA Bruins, chances are you've heard them brag about their products at the next level. And they're louder than ever now after watching UConn climb the ladders. So, do your school's products tend to do better than UConn products?
Let's put some actual numbers to it.
To that end, I've pulled up the DRAFT Initiative study that analyzes each and every one of the 1,442 picks of the modern NBA draft since it went to a two-round format back in 1989. We already turned the microscope on GMs last week and the value of second-rounders back in February, but now it's time to put the spotlight on the colleges.
So how do you measure collegiate success at the next level? We've used John Hollinger's estimated wins added (EWA) metric, which is based on PER, to calculate how many wins each pick produced in the league. We then ran a regression analysis to determine the expected value for each pick historically once we found out the output at each slot. From there, we pinned each draft pick to the college that the prospect attended and then tracked how well they did in the league.
The key for this study is that we're looking at outperforming expectations, not necessarily getting picked. University of the Pacific fans aren't exactly beating their chests over Michael Olowokandi. Likewise, we know that Kentucky sends fleets of prospects to the NBA every year, but what we want to know is whether they're good bets in the draft. To do that, we assigned each draft pick to an expected value based on the regression analysis of draft slots and then observed whether they outdid or came up short on expectations.
Lastly, we decided to limit the field to those schools who have at least 10 players taken in the draft. Sure, Santa Clara University might have produced a Hall of Famer in Steve Nash, but that's a DRAFT Initiative one-hit wonder. We're looking for consistent results at the next level. The 10-pick qualifier leaves us with 44 schools to break down ahead of the draft on June 26.
So which schools tend to surprise in the NBA?
Let's get to it.
The Top 5
1. Wake Forest
Picks: 10 | Actual EWA: 51.6 | Expected EWA: 23.5 | Net EWA: +2.8 per pick (+28.1 total)
As a Demon Deacon myself, I promise I didn't rig this one. Promise! Really, the results speak for themselves. The smallest school in the ACC has produced some of the biggest names of our generation. After four years in Winston-Salem, Tim Duncan may go down as the best power forward of all time. No surprise, he has yielded 13.0 wins more per year than we'd expect from a No. 1 overall pick. Chris Paul, who spent two years at Wake Forest, remains the gold standard at the position and ranks as the best No. 4 pick in the 24-year study (plus-13.8 Net EWA).
But of course, there's more to it than Duncan and Paul. In 2003, 28 teams passed on All-Star Josh Howard (plus-3.4 Net EWA) before the Dallas Mavericks plucked him at No. 29. Elsewhere, Jeff Teague (plus-2.7 Net EWA) fell outside the lottery in 2009 and Darius Songaila (plus-1.3 Net EWA) dropped all the way to No. 49 before carving out a solid NBA career. Throw Rodney Rogers (No. 9 in 1993) and James Johnson (No. 16 in 2009) into the mix and you'll see a long line of hits and few misses (Al-Farouq Aminu at No. 8 in 2010 and Randolph Childress at No. 19 in 1995). Don't sleep on the Deacs.
Prospects to watch: Travis McKie and Devin Thomas.
2. Marquette
Picks: 11 | Actual EWA: 20.5 | Expected EWA: 8.3 | Net EWA: +1.1 per pick (+12.1 total)
Getting a Hall of Famer like Dwyane Wade at No. 5 is obviously the headliner here, but the real Marquette story is about finding diamonds in the rough. Guess how many Marquette players have been drafted inside the top 25? One: Wade. But plenty of NBA players have honed their craft at Marquette.
Jimmy Butler (No. 30 in 2011), Jae Crowder (No. 34 in 2012) and Steve Novak (No. 32 in 2006) were all picked way outside the lottery, but have made contributions to winning teams at the next level when history tells us guys in the 30s shouldn't. Chris Crawford (No. 50 in 1997) and Tony Smith (No. 51) also enjoyed solid NBA careers despite getting picked in the back of the second round. Bottom line: If you're looking for a flier, Marquette players should be on your short list.
Prospects to watch: Davante Gardner, JaJuan Johnson and Jamil Wilson.
3. Georgetown
Picks: 15 | Actual EWA: 49.7 | Expected EWA: 36.4 | Net EWA: +0.9 per pick (+13.3 total)
As you can see by the ranking, Georgetown's reputation as a big man factory is well deserved. And this doesn't even count Patrick Ewing, who was drafted before this study's 1989 cutoff. Alonzo Mourning (No. 2 in 1992), Dikembe Mutombo (No. 4 in 1991), Greg Monroe (No. 7 in 2010) and Roy Hibbert (No. 17 in 2008) are all Hoyas who have bludgeoned the NBA with their size and skill. And that's before we get to Allen Iverson, a future Hall of Famer who changed the game. But the Hoyas don't have a spotless record. Mike Sweetney (No. 9 in 2003) lasted four years before weight problems forced him out of the league. EWA doesn't like the Jeff Green pick at No. 5 since he has yet to put up an above-average PER in seven seasons. And it's early, but Otto Porter Jr. (No. 3 in 2013) has registered one of the worst rookie seasons ever by a top-3 pick, thanks to his battles with injury. All in all, Georgetown has a ridiculously strong track record, but Porter has a ways to go to live up to his school's standing.
Prospects to watch: Josh Smith.
4. Florida
Picks: 19 | Actual EWA: 44.0 | Expected EWA: 30.6 | Net EWA: +0.7 per pick (+13.4 total)
Of all the teams in the tournament this year, no one can top the Gators in exceeding expectations at the next level. Just a ton of hits inside and outside the lottery. We remember the juggernaut Class of 2007 that produced Al Horford (No. 3), Corey Brewer (No. 7), Joakim Noah (No. 9), Chris Richard (No. 41) and Taurean Green (No. 52) but the best Gators pick from a value standpoint is David Lee (plus-8.7 Net EWA), whom Isiah Thomas scooped up at No. 30 in the 2005 draft. Brewer actually ranks as the least profitable pick of all Gators (minus-2.6 EWA), but that tells you more about Florida's outstanding track record than anything.
Chandler Parsons (No. 38 in 2011), Matt Bonner (No. 45 in 2003) and Andrew DeClercq (No. 34 in 1995) have made the rest of the NBA look foolish for passing them up in the first round. Udonis Haslem wasn't even drafted at all. Elsewhere, Mike Miller (No. 5 in 2000) and Jason Williams (No. 7 in 1998) produced just about what we'd expect at their slots, and Bradley Beal (No. 3 in 2012) looks destined for an All-Star career as long as he strengthens those wheels.
Prospects to watch: Patric Young, Scottie Wilbekin, Chris Walker, Casey Prather, Kasey Hill, Michael Frazier II and Dorian Finney-Smith.
5. California
Picks: 12 | Actual EWA: 27.3 | Expected EWA: 18.4 | Net EWA: +0.7 per pick (+8.9 total)
Jason Kidd at No. 2 and Shareef Abdur-Rahim at No. 3 certainly helps boost the Golden Bears' standing, but it's outside the lottery where California makes its mark. Leon Powe was a late second-round pick in 2006 and the sweet-shooting Ryan Anderson fell all the way to No. 21 before the Nets picked him up. Also contributing to the Golden Bears' bottom line is two NBA journeyman, Sean Marks and NBA champion Francisco Elson, who were both draft-day afterthoughts, getting selected No. 44 and No. 41, respectively.
The latest California product, Allen Crabbe, hasn't lived up to expectations as the top pick in the second round of last year's draft, but the former All-American is just getting started on his NBA career. The University of California may not boast the big names of its UCLA brethren, but when Lamond Murray at No. 7 is considered your biggest bust, that's a darn impressive résumé.
Prospects to watch: Jabari Bird, Justin Cobbs and Richard Solomon.
Rounding out the top 10
6. Xavier | 10 picks | Net EWA per pick: +0.7
Hits: David West (No. 18), Jordan Crawford (27), Brian Grant (8)
Whiffs: None
Prospects to watch: Semaj Christon.
7. LSU | 15 picks | Net EWA per pick: +0.6
Hits: Shaquille O'Neal (1), Marcus Thornton (43), Brandon Bass (33), Glen Davis (35)
Whiffs: Stromile Swift (2), Tyrus Thomas (4), Anthony Randolph (14)
Prospects to watch: Jarell Martin, Jordan Mickey and Johnny O'Bryant.
8. Washington | 12 picks | Net EWA per pick: +0.6
Hits: Isaiah Thomas (60), Brandon Roy (6), Nate Robinson (21), Todd MacCulloch (47), Spencer Hawes (10)
Whiffs: None
Prospects to watch: C.J. Wilcox and Nigel Williams-Goss.
9. UConn | 27 picks | Net EWA per pick: +0.5
Hits: Ray Allen (5), Andre Drummond (9), Kemba Walker (9), Clifford Robinson (36)
Whiffs: Hasheem Thabeet (2), Hilton Armstrong (12)
Prospects to watch: Shabazz Napier, DeAndre Daniels, Rodney Purvis, Omar Calhoun and Ryan Boatright.
10. UCLA | Actual EWA: 55.6 | Expected EWA: 40.1 | +0.5 Net EWA per pick (+15.5 total)
Hits: Kevin Love (5), Russell Westbrook (4), Darren Collison (21), Trevor Ariza (43)
Whiffs: Ed O'Bannon (9), Jerome Moiso (11), Shabazz Muhammad (14), George Zidek (22)
The Bottom 5
1. Louisville
Picks: 15 | Actual EWA: 4.2 | Expected EWA: 29.4 | Net EWA: -1.7 per pick (-25.1 total)
Here's your pick-me-up, Kentucky fans! The rival Cardinals have been horrible bets in the draft ever since Pervis Ellison (minus-5.1 Net EWA) was picked No. 1 overall in 1989 only to never make an All-Star team. But then there's Felton Spencer at No. 6, Earl Clark at No. 14, Terrence Williams at No. 11 and Samaki Walker at No. 9 -- all lottery busts hailing from U of L.
Not only do the Cards have a long line of duds, none of their 15 picks have ever outperformed expectations by even as much as half a win per season. By comparison, Kentucky boasts 10 such players. Timberwolves rookie Gorgui Dieng (No. 21) is Louisville's best hope at salvaging the Cardinals' NBA reputation, but there's only so much he can do. Put it this way, Louisville and Florida each were expected to produce about 30 EWA according to their draft slots, so pretty much equal ground. And Louisville has ended up spitting out 4.2 EWA while Florida has yielded 44 EWA. Yikes.
Prospects to watch: Chris Jones, Russ Smith, Terry Rozier, Montrezl Harrell, Luke Hancock, Wayne Blackshear and Chane Behanan.
2. Indiana
Picks: 15 | Actual EWA: 10.7 | Expected EWA: 29.2 | Net EWA: -1.2 per pick (-18.5 total)
Victor Oladipo has his hands full. Not only does he have to help rescue the Orlando Magic franchise, but the Hoosiers' NBA reputation is on life support, as well. No doubt Bob Knight and the Hoosiers have some of the most storied and successful seasons in NCAA history, but that's usually where the success ends. Calbert Cheaney (No. 6 in 1993) and Jared Jeffries (No. 11 in 2002) both failed to live up to expectations and you can throw Kirk Haston (No. 16 in 2001) and Greg Graham (No. 17 in 1993) into that pile, as well.
Cody Zeller (No. 4) has come on strong lately, but he did shoot 38 percent as a big man until March. Oladipo has also fallen short of the preseason hype after called the overwhelming favorite for Rookie of the Year. No pressure or anything, Noah Vonleh.
Prospects to watch: Vonleh, Will Sheehey, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Yogi Ferrell and Troy Williams.
3. UNLV
Picks: 10 | Actual EWA: 21.0 | Expected EWA: 32.4 | Net EWA: -1.1 per pick (-11.3 total)
So far, Anthony Bennett (minus-7.9 Net EWA) is the biggest bust in DRAFT Initiative history, beating out 1998 No. 1 overall pick Michael Olowokandi (minus-6.8 Net EWA) for that dishonor. But it's far too early to write off Bennett's career. Still, a dreadful rookie season doesn't help UNLV's rank here.
But it's not all Bennett. Larry Johnson ranks eighth worst among 25 No. 1 overall picks (minus-2.1 Net EWA) and was out of the league by age 31 due to back problems. Marcus Banks (No. 13 in 2003), Isaiah Rider (No. 5 in 1993), Keon Clark (No. 13 in 1998) and Stacey Augmon (No. 9 in 1991) were all lottery picks who struggled to sustain successful NBA careers for various reasons. In fact, Shawn Marion (No. 9 in 1999) is the only UNLV product in the DRAFT Initiative study to outperform draft expectations. Funny, Vegas products are one of the worst bets on the big board.
Prospects to watch: Roscoe Smith, Katin Reinhardt and Khem Birch.
4. Iowa State
Picks: 11 | Actual EWA: 4.0 | Expected EWA: 14.4 | Net EWA: -0.9 per pick (-10.3 total)
Fred Hoiberg can't do everything. Hoiberg is not only the current Iowa State coach, but he also ranks as the most rewarding pick on Iowa State's résumé, delivering an annual 0.9 EWA as the 52nd pick in the 1995 draft. Jamaal Tinsley enjoyed a lengthy career from the No. 27 slot in the 2001 draft, but his inefficient game never reflected well in advanced metrics. And those are the bright spots.
The rest is a mess. Marcus Fizer (No. 4 in 2000), Royce White (No. 16 in 2012), Craig Brackins (No. 21 in 2010), Victor Alexander (No. 17 in 1991) and Kelvin Cato (No. 15) all underperformed to varying degrees at the next level. Fizer (minus-5.2 Net EWA) goes down as the worst No. 4 pick in the non-Wesley Johnson division.
Prospects to watch: DeAndre Kane, Melvin Ejim and Georges Niang.
5. Georgia
Picks: 12 | Actual EWA: -0.6 | Expected EWA: 10.0 | Net EWA: -0.9 per pick (-10.7 total)
Don't worry, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope; you're not the only one. If the Piston, who was selected No. 8 overall last year, doesn't bounce back from a disappointing rookie season, he would join a fairly long line of Bulldogs busts in the league. Jarvis Hayes (No. 10 in 2003) and Alec Kessler (No. 12 in 1990) never did much of anything in the league.
All told, the 12 Bulldogs picked have somehow managed to produce negative wins in the NBA as a group. Yes, negative. That seems impossible. When Jumaine Jones (No. 27 in 1999) and Shandon Anderson (No. 54 in 1996) are your most profitable picks in the past 25 years, you've got a problem.
Prospects to watch: None.
Rounding out the bottom 10
6. Missouri | 13 picks | Net EWA per pick: -0.9
Hits: DeMarre Carroll (27)
Whiffs: Doug Smith (6), Keyon Dooling (10), Kareem Rush (20), Anthony Peeler (15).
Prospects to watch: Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson.
7. Oklahoma State | 10 picks | Net EWA per pick: -0.9
Hits: Tony Allen (25)
Whiffs: Bryant Reeves (6), Joey Graham (16), James Anderson (20)
Prospects to watch: Marcus Smart, Markel Brown and Le'Bryan Nash.
8. Maryland | 19 picks | Net EWA per pick: -0.8
Hits: Greivis Vasquez (28), Tony Massenburg (43), Steve Blake (38)
Whiffs: Joe Smith (1), Chris Wilcox (8), Juan Dixon (17), Jerrod Mustaf (17).
Prospects to watch: Shaquille Cleare and Dezmine Wells.
9. Minnesota | 10 picks | Net EWA per pick: -0.8
Hits: Voshon Leonard (46), Bobby Jackson (23)
Whiffs: Willie Burton (9), Joel Przybilla (9), Quincy Lewis (19)
Prospects to watch: Andre Hollins and Austin Hollins.
10. Kansas | 31 picks | Net EWA per pick: -0.7
Hits: Mario Chalmers (34), Paul Pierce (10), Markieff Morris (13)
Whiffs: Ben McLemore (7), Thomas Robinson (5), Raef LaFrentz (3), Xavier Henry (12).
Prospects to watch: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Wayne Selden, Perry Ellis, Tarik Black, Jamari Traylor and Andrew White.