- Close
ESPN Senior Writer- Senior NBA Writer for ESPN.com
- ESPN Insider NBA Draft Analyst since 2002
- Writes ESPN's NBA Draft Top 100 and Lottery Mock Draft
- Close
ESPN Senior Writer- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
On Friday, ESPN's own Jeff Goodman broke the news that UCLA point guard Zach LaVine (as well as teammate Kyle Anderson) will enter the 2014 NBA draft.
To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Amin Elhassan (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at LaVine.
Zach LaVine | 6-5, 180 POUNDS | POINT GUARD | FRESHMAN
Chad Ford's Top 100: No. 9
Strengths: TO% | Weaknesses: Usage, FTA%, Rebound%
WARP projection: 1.1 (25th among Top 100)
Comparables: Cory Joseph (95.6), Avery Bradley (95.2), Bradley Beal (93.4), Xavier Henry (90.3)
The analytics perspective
Kevin Pelton: Both the potential and the pitfalls for LaVine are evident in his statistics. He projects as a first-round pick almost entirely on potential. Next season in the NBA, his translated numbers suggest he'll contribute at a below-replacement level. Scoring efficiently could be a challenge, since he rarely got to the free throw line and wasn't a particularly accurate shooter on 2s (49.4 percent) or 3s (37.5 percent).
LaVine will have to hone both his shot selection and his playmaking skills. His assist rate is below average for a combo guard, let alone a point guard, since he played largely off the ball at UCLA. Ultimately, his combination of ballhandling skills, shooting range and size could make him a valuable contributor. While the SCHOENE projection system finds few close matches, I tend to see elements of another Seattle-area native in LaVine's game: Jamal Crawford.
The scouting perspective
Amin Elhassan: LaVine is an explosive athlete with a great first step. He's great in the open court, runs the lanes, and is able to maneuver and adjust. He finishes with either hand at the rim and has a nice fluid stroke on his jump shot, getting great elevation. The torrid pace with which he started the season is now a memory, as his efficiency dropped later in the season. He's not a point guard, but more of a scorer who can make plays off the bounce; I wish he had more of an opportunity to show some of that. LaVine is barely 19, so he really is just a lump of clay and could develop into almost anything. Remember, he wasn't on the NBA radar prior to this season and had to adjust to going from being nobody to a possible top-10 pick.
Defensively, his length and quickness should give him the tools to be a plus defender at the next level, with great versatility in guarding different positions. UCLA played a ton of zone (mostly to hide Kyle Anderson), so it'll be interesting to see LaVine have to perform within team defensive schemes. Despite having great size and athleticism, he leaves you wanting more on the glass.
The NBA front-office perspective
LaVine was a late bloomer in high school -- a skinny combo guard out of the Seattle area -- and didn't shoot up the high school rankings until his senior year, when he grew a few extra inches. Still, few NBA scouts thought about him as a one-and-done.
But a hot start drew quick attention from NBA scouts, and he quickly moved into our lottery by December. In early December he was averaging 14 PPG, shooting 64 percent from the field (57 percent from 3-point range) and sporting a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Those are "wow" numbers to any NBA scout.
NBA scouts love big, athletic point guards who can shoot the rock (who doesn't?) and LaVine has all of that -- explosive leaping ability, a tight handle and deep range on his jumper -- in spades.
However, his production slowed down significantly as the season progressed into Pac-12 play, and his draft stock has fallen as scouts question how ready he is for the NBA. LaVine desperately needs to add strength, and his questionable shot selection raises issues. Some scouts are also questioning whether he's a true point guard. He looked like one in high school, but he wasn't given that responsibility at UCLA this season. He's obviously much more valuable to teams as a point guard than an average-sized 2-guard.
Nevertheless, expect his stock to continue to rise now that he's in the draft. Scouts want to love him and see him as one of the five or six players in the draft with the most long-term upside. He should look great in workouts; he will add strength and, given his high ceiling and age, I think you could see people gambling on him as high as the late lottery.