On Monday, North Carolina State forward T.J. Warren announced he was headed to the 2014 NBA draft.
To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Amin Elhassan (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices).
T.J. Warren | 6-foot-8, 233 pounds | SF | sophomore
Chad Ford's Top 100: No. 20
Strengths: 2-point%, Steal%, Turnover%
Weaknesses: Shooting, FTA%, Rebound%, Assist%
WARP projection: 0.6 (39th among Top 100)
Comparables: Marcus Williams (90.4), Perry Jones (89.7), Luke Babbitt (88.9), Jordan Williams (88.8)
The analytics perspective
Kevin Pelton: As his low similarity scores indicate, Warren is a unique NBA prospect. His effectiveness was built on creating 2-point shots (his usage rate ranked seventh in the NCAA, per KenPom.com) while hitting them at an impressive 58.0 percent clip. That makes Warren a throwback to 1980s small forwards like Bernard King and Alex English. Can such a player thrive in the modern NBA? Unclear.
Only one wing player in my database before Warren was projected to use less than 10 percent of his plays on 3-pointers and less than 8 percent on free throws: DeQuan Jones, who played for Orlando last season after going undrafted in the 2012 draft. The transition to the NBA takes a huge hit out of 2-point percentages, and Warren may find it difficult to be efficient without improving his 3-point shooting or getting to the foul line more frequently and hitting better than 69.0 percent once there.
The scouting perspective
Amin Elhassan: Warren is an offensively gifted player. The son of former eighth-round draft pick Tony Warren, he brings elite size for a wing to the table. He's an excellent finisher around the rim, with a knack for completing through contact and fouls. He wants to get out in transition and often will leak prematurely to do so. Warren has a really nice in-between game of runners and floaters, which makes him almost impossible to guard at his size when he's hitting. He'll move without the ball on offense but is not a particularly good spot-up shooter, connecting on less than 27 percent of his 3-point attempts. His shot mechanics need some work, with his release coming on a line-drive slingshot from above his head. He's an opportunistic offensive rebounder.
On defense, he'll give his man cushion and try to use his length. He has active hands; he wants to slap away the ball whenever an offensive player is in triple threat. NC State tried to hide him by putting him on pick-and-pop or undersized bigs, but that won't work at the next level. He's a lazy defender on the weak side and an inconsistent shot contester. He'll often stand straight up and down, leading to more reactionary than proactive rotations. And his poor closeout technique leads not to only blow-bys but also middle drives, which can wreak havoc on a team's defensive scheme.
The NBA front office perspective
Chad Ford: Kevin isn't the only one having a tough time finding great comps for Warren. NBA scouts and GMs have been all over the place on him this season because Warren's game doesn't fit the typical mold they are looking for.
They want long, athletic wings who use speed and explosiveness to create their own shots or who can shoot the lights out and stretch defenses. Warren does neither. He gets all of his shots in the midrange game on floaters or taking it to the basket. He's a throwback who uses great basketball IQ and angles to get his shot. While everyone loves watching him play, does it translate?
No one really knows. Scoring is a coveted commodity in the NBA, and in the past few weeks, more and more GMs and scouts have started to consider him in the middle of the first round. But we will see when the excitement of the season ends and Warren gets into workouts. Typically, players with great athletic advantages or skill sets thrive in those settings. So while Warren is sitting a few spots outside the lottery now, it's entirely possible he moves back further in the draft once workouts begin.