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ESPN Senior Writer- Senior NBA Writer for ESPN.com
- ESPN Insider NBA Draft Analyst since 2002
- Writes ESPN's NBA Draft Top 100 and Lottery Mock Draft
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ESPN Senior Writer- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
On Thursday, ESPN's own Jeff Goodman broke the news that Syracuse point guard Tyler Ennis would enter the 2014 NBA draft.
To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Amin Elhassan (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices).
Tyler Ennis | 6-2, 180 POUNDS | POINT GUARD | FRESHMAN
Chad Ford's Top 100: No. 9
Strengths: Assist%, Steal%, TO%, PF% | Weaknesses: Usage, 2-point%
WARP projection: 2.1 (6th among Top 100)
Comparables: Chris Paul (96.6), Rajon Rondo (95.1), T.J. Ford (93.4), Mike Conley (93.2)
The analytics perspective
Kevin Pelton: While Ennis' stats regressed a bit after we checked in on his rise midseason, he remains a top-10 prospect by the numbers. Basically, anything not related to scoring was a strength for the precocious Ennis. Only one other prospect in my database, Ty Lawson, combined a translated assist rate better than seven percent with a turnover rate of less than 15 percent of his plays.
From a statistical standpoint, the biggest question about Ennis is whether his impressive steal rate will translate going from Syracuse's 2-3 zone to a man-to-man. Historically, players at the top of Jim Boeheim's zone have collected extra steals that disappear in a more traditional defense. If Ennis' steal rate dropped by 1/3, Paul would no longer appear at the top of his similarity list and Rondo would also drop, though it would still include players like Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook in the top five. If Ennis develops anything like those predecessors, he'll be the steal.
The scouting perspective
Amin Elhassan: Ennis possesses good size for a point guard, with decent arm length. In transition he likes to push the ball up the court via dribble as opposed to hit-aheads. He's a very composed, mature player, but as a result is overly conservative at times. He has great command of the ball and rarely makes sloppy miscues when handling. Ennis has good speed but just doesn't have that burst to blow by defenders without a screen, and as a result doesn't get deep penetration often. He's just as likely to pull up for a midrange shot as he is to get to the rim, and he's not a particularly good midrange shooter.
Playing for Syracuse has been of benefit to him because they run a ton of pick-and-roll action, so he's pretty advanced in that regard. He does a good job of being patient with screens and not taking off prematurely. (This leads to moving screen fouls called on the big.) He passes well with either hand, a rarity among college guards, let alone for a 19-year-old.
Defensively, he carries the same stigma as every other Syracuse product that comes to the NBA: a majority of his playing and practice time was spent in a 2-3 zone. Comparatively speaking, he performed well, anticipating in the passing lanes adeptly, but that's more of a back-handed compliment.
The NBA front office perspective
Ennis might have been the most consistent freshman in college basketball this year. He's a consummate point guard who shows a terrific balance between scoring and facilitating. He has a great court sense and rarely makes the wrong play. For coaches who love steady play and consistency, you don't get much better than Ennis.
However, Ennis isn't a slam dunk NBA prospect. He's not an elite athlete, has just a so-so jumper and has struggled at times to finish in traffic around the rim. I wonder if he'll be more of a Mario Chalmers-type point guard at the next level -- a guy who won't hurt you and will just go about quietly running a team without fanfare. He might have a higher ceiling than that, but for many NBA teams, that would be enough. Expect him to go somewhere between No. 6 and No. 12.