Future Power Rankings: Teams 16-20

Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.

Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.

To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).

As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.

At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.

With all the big moves made in the last few months, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) we are evaluating each team's prospects for the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2)
we are not, for the most part, considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.

Here are our latest rankings, from 1 to 30:

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

16. Houston Rockets | Future Power Rating: 508

The Rockets find themselves caught in the NBA's version of purgatory -- good enough to win a bunch of regular-season games, but not good enough to get into the playoffs. While Houston has several good players -- Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin, Chase Budinger, Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, Courtney Lee and Goran Dragic all are keepers -- the Rockets lack a great one now that Yao Ming's career is in jeopardy, and they have thus far failed in their efforts to procure one.

Houston's management score took a slight hit due to uncertainty over Rick Adelman's future, as well as a puzzling midseason trade of a future first-round pick for New Jersey bust Terrence Williams. As for the draft, the Rockets' well-executed trade with New York that gave them the right to switch picks with the Knicks in 2011 and NY's first-rounder in 2012 now looks like less of a jackpot given the Knicks' recent success.

Nonetheless, the Rockets should at the very least keep their heads above water. They have a strong salary cap situation going forward, plus an owner who is willing to spend money to buy draft picks and/or pay luxury tax. They have an alluring market where many players make their offseason homes, one with no state income tax. And while they owe a future first-rounder to New Jersey for the Williams trade, they got one from Phoenix in the Dragic deal and still have the 2012 Knicks pick.

All of that should allow the Rockets to be a decent team; becoming any more than that will require some clever wheeling and dealing from GM Daryl Morey to convert his many red chips into one or two blue ones.

(Previous rank: 10)

17. Washington Wizards | Future Power Rating: 474

The Wizards are terrible right now, but they have a decent situation going forward. Thanks to Mike Bibby's decision to forgo the $6 million he's owed next year and become a free agent, Washington hit the jackpot at the trade deadline -- moving the $9 million owed Kirk Hinrich next season while effectively getting two first-round picks from the Hawks. One of them, Jordan Crawford, was Atlanta's 2010 first-rounder and has hardly played, while the second is likely to be around 20th in the draft. Nonetheless, it allows the rebuilding Wizards to keep accumulating assets.

Washington also has a few nice pieces on its roster. John Wall looks like a future star if his knees don't become an issue, while JaVale McGee is a shot-blocking and finishing force. Andray Blatche could provide a third building block, but his poor conditioning and lack of professionalism stand in the way right now -- Washington might regret the extension it inked him to last year.

The Wizards also rated low for management. New owner Ted Leonsis is promising, but general manager Ernie Grunfeld and coach Flip Saunders have done little to inspire confidence. The Hinrich trade was a move in the right direction, however, and late first-round draft pick Trevor Booker looks like a keeper. With more steps like that and fewer like the baffling Josh Howard signing, the combination of Wall, future cap space and a tempting market could have the Wizards back to respectability soon.

(Previous rank: 19)

18. Sacramento Kings | Future Power Rating: 471

We're not crazy about their players and we think the Kings are one of the worst-run teams in sports, but they moved up two spots to 18th in our latest rankings because of one big issue: relocation.

Anaheim may not be L.A., but it's a heck of a lot closer than Sacramento, and it should be a significant draw for future players. In the last edition, we ranked Sacramento 28th in the Market category; in this edition, we assumed the Kings would be moving to Anaheim and bumped the team up to 14th.

This is not an idle consideration given the trove of salary cap space on which the Kings sit. They were barely at the league's minimum salary this season and will get another $15 million in space when the deals of Samuel Dalembert and Marquis Daniels expire, which should give them room to sign two max free agents this summer if they so desire. (Of course, all such considerations are subject to the new collective bargaining agreement, when we have one.)

Of course, they're likely to take it slower than that -- there are few good free agents this summer and the Kings' owners are thought to be in pretty tight financial straits. Nonetheless, the appeal of Anaheim for free agents in 2012 -- say, a Deron Williams-Dwight Howard package deal, for those living in fantasy land -- can't be ignored.

Whether they have the organization to pull off something like that is very much an open question. The Kings rated 28th for management given the team's shaky direction under Geoff Petrie, who assembled a great team at the start of the decade but has presided over one lousy season after another in recent years. And despite two great talents in Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins, we rated the Kings' players 23rd, as we're not sure either has the maturity to achieve the stardom at which their talents hint.

(Previous rank: 20)

19. Atlanta Hawks | Future Power Rating: 455

After an uneven season that has seen Atlanta take its first step back after improving for five straight seasons, the Hawks have fallen three spots in the rankings.

While Al Horford, Josh Smith and Joe Johnson form a very solid nucleus, we doubt the Hawks will be able to surround them with much talent. Atlanta traded its 2010 and 2011 first-round picks to Washington for Kirk Hinrich and have gotten little this season from Marvin Williams, who was supposed to be another core piece of the foundation (and is paid like it). Jeff Teague, a 2009 first-rounder, showed plenty of promise when inserted into the starting lineup in Saturday's win over Portland but had accomplished little prior to that. Meanwhile, the likely free agent defection of Jamal Crawford, a glaring lack of quality depth and a relatively weak financial situation mean the Hawks may be stuck in neutral for a while longer.

As a result, Atlanta dropped from seventh to 11th in the Players category, which has always been its strongest spot in these rankings. If Williams and Teague can't turn the corner, the Hawks' three stars may not get them beyond the first round of the playoffs over the coming three seasons.

(Previous rank: 16)

20. Philadelphia 76ers | Future Power Rating: 447

While the 76ers have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA during the second half of the season, our Future Power Rankings system doesn't seem to be all that impressed. Yes, they've jumped four spots in our latest standings to No. 20, but the future doesn't appear as bright as Philly fans hope.

Doug Collins has done a great job getting the most out of Elton Brand and bringing discipline to the team, but we still have reservations about how far the Sixers can go.

If the team exceeds our expectations, it will be because of its young talent. Andre Iguodala has been as solid as ever. Jrue Holiday has been good and, at 20 years old, should only get better. Thaddeus Young is having another productive season, as is Lou Williams. And No. 2 pick Evan Turner, after a brutal start, has turned things around a bit since the All-Star break.

But there are still structural problems with the team that we can't ignore, particularly in terms of salary commitments, present and future. Brand has played better this season, but he's on a terrible contract that doesn't end until 2013. Iguodala's contract is huge, and Andres Nocioni is grossly overpaid. Young hits the free agent market this summer, with no guarantee the Sixers can bring him back.

With no true stars, no size in the middle, little money to spend and middling draft picks in future drafts, the Sixers' ceiling may be much lower than it appears to be.

(Previous rank: 24)

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

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