How will Mudiay translate to NBA?

Statistical Big Board 1.0 | Big Board 6.0

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Question: How does Emmanuel Mudiay's performance in China translate to the NBA?

Chad Ford: This week ESPN Insider unleashed a major Emmanuel Mudiay package that included my feature story on Mudiay's draft stock from high school to China, a Fran Fraschilla film session on Mudiay's performance at the Nike Hoop Summit and Jeff Goodman's look at what several of Mudiay's opponents in China thought of his NBA future.

But that story wouldn't be complete without a Ford-Pelton file on the subject. I went on for 3,000 words on what scouts and GMs thinks about Mudiay's draft stock. I won't repeat all of that here. But in summary, they believe he's a top-four prospect in the draft with elite size (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) and athleticism for his position (point guard).

What I think everyone really wants to know, however, is what do the numbers say?

Kevin Pelton: More so than any other international league, the Chinese Basketball Association tends to produce eye-popping numbers. Teams are allowed just two imports, who tend to play nearly all of the games and create an enormous percentage of the offense. So per-game stats from the CBA can't be taken at face value.

Looking at how players who have gone from the NBA to the CBA over the past four seasons (or vice versa) have fared, it becomes clear that the level of competition in China is not nearly as high as the European leagues I've studied. In particular, usage rates and rebound rates tend to drop dramatically in the conversion process. Shooting percentages, because of the trade-off between usage and efficiency, actually convert about the same as they do from Europe.

Let's take Andray Blatche as an example. This season, he averaged 31.1 points, 14.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game in the CBA. But when that performance is translated to its NBA equivalent, Blatche was really performing at the level of a player with 16.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per 36 minutes -- not dissimilar to his NBA numbers last season with the Brooklyn Nets (18.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per 36).

Applying the same translations to Mudiay turns his averages of 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game to 11.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per 36 minutes in the NBA. Among rookies, Marcus Smart of the Boston Celtics (10.5 points, 4.9 assists and 4.4 rebounds per 36 minutes) would be the best match for Mudiay.

Question: How does Mudiay rate compared to other top prospects?

Ford: Some teams have Mudiay as high as No. 2 on their internal big boards. A few teams have him ranked at No. 5. A small handful of GMs still believe, with strong workouts and the lottery balls falling the right way (toward a team like Philadelphia, for example), he could be the No. 1 pick.

The draft is really devoid of elite point guard prospects, which helps Mudiay, as well. His only real competition among guards is Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, and they are totally different players. Russell is about power and athleticism. Russell is a smooth athlete with a killer jump shot. Most scouts believe Mudiay is more of a full-time point guard than Russell, however, which is another point in his favor. There isn't another elite point guard prospect in the lottery.

Where would Mudiay fall on your statistical big board? How does he compare to Russell? And how much can we learn from the 12 games Mudiay played in the CBA this season?

Pelton: Mudiay's 2.4 WARP projection would put him ninth on my board at this point. But among top-10 prospects, he's fourth behind Russell (3.1), Myles Turner (2.8) and Karl-Anthony Towns (2.7). So he improves to fourth in the consensus ratings I introduced in last week's Ford-Pelton column that also consider the scouting perspective, behind Russell, Towns and Jahlil Okafor. In sum, Mudiay appears to belong in the discussion of the top four prospects in this year's draft.

Obviously, the more information we had the better I'd feel about Mudiay's projection. But because of the way volatile stats are regressed to the mean while more consistent ones are credited to the individual, my experience is that translated statistics can pick out the top prospects surprisingly quickly. So I wouldn't be especially concerned that his projection is a fluke.

Question: What are Mudiay's strengths and weaknesses? Who are NBA comparisons for him?

Ford: While he's not a great shooter yet and can play with tunnel vision at times, Mudiay shows potential to be a point guard who can find balance between running a team and scoring the basketball. He can score from anywhere on the floor yet can also be unselfish when he needs to be. I think his ability to get to and finish at the rim has teams excited. Perhaps his best attributes right now besides his size and athleticism are his ability to defend both positions in the backcourt and the high level of maturity he showed while playing (and often sitting on the bench) in China.

The scouts I've spoken with, along with SMU coach Larry Brown (whom I interviewed for the article I wrote), typically use three comps for him: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and John Wall. For those less enamored with his skill set, the Tyreke Evans comp comes up a lot.

Pelton: The big thing that stands out as a strength is Mudiay's rebounding. His projected defensive rebound rate would be average for an NBA shooting guard and is very good for a point guard. As I've noted in the past, rebounding guards tend to translate better to the NBA than their poor-rebounding counterparts. Mudiay's 2-point percentage is also solid. The biggest knock on his game right now is a lack of free throw attempts. At the same time, given he shot just 57.4 percent from the line in China, that might not be the worst thing.

The comps you mention match up well with what SCHOENE finds in terms of similarity. Rose is the closest match for Mudiay at the same age, with Wall also in the top three (along with Jrue Holiday). And Westbrook and Evans are among Mudiay's top-10 comps.

Question: Who's your sleeper this week?

Ford: Nigel Hayes, F, So., Wisconsin

Two Wisconsin players, center Frank Kaminsky and forward Sam Dekker, have been on our Big Board all year. Kaminsky looks like a potential late lottery pick while Dekker looks like he could be a first-round pick. But over the course of the past six weeks or so, another Badger, Hayes, is getting tremendous buzz from scouts. He cracked our Top 100 a few weeks ago, and the more research I do on Hayes the more it appears he's making a push into the late first to early second round.

While he lacks ideal size (he's listed at 6-7, 250) for his most obvious position in the pros, power forward, he has excellent length (a 7-2 wingspan), is a terrific athlete, has an NBA body and has shown the ability to stretch the floor with his jumper. He's not a great rebounder, however, and I'm curious what the stats say about him.

Pelton: They certainly confirm that. Hayes' projected rebound rate would be on the low side for a power forward. On the plus side, his steal and assist percentages are both strong for a power forward, and at 20 years old he's got room to grow into his game. Hayes will probably end up somewhere in the early second round in terms of projected WARP if he declares for this year's draft.

My sleeper: Zhou Qi, F/C, Xinjiang

Introducing a revolutionary thought: What if Mudiay isn't the most interesting prospect in China this year? Zhou is a 7-1, 19-year-old seeing CBA action for the first time, and his numbers are off the charts. Zhou's 72.2 percent shooting is tops in the league, and his block rate (10.8 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts) is nearly double anyone else. His stats translate to 14.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.3 blocks per 36 minutes in the NBA. That kind of production would make Zhou a surefire lottery pick, and probably more. Is there any chance he can actually be this good?

Ford: I think if there's an international player not named Kristaps Porzingis or Mario Hezonja who sneaks into the first round, it will be Zhou. He's got great size, is very athletic and is extremely skilled. The only question, and it's a big one, concerns his frame. He's rail thin. Zhou is going to need to add a lot of strength to keep from getting pushed all over the place in the NBA. If he had a better body, I think he would be a lottery pick. Teams are that enamored. But most think he'll spend at least one more year in China working on his strength. Still, as it stands, Zhou might be the perfect draft-and-stash candidate in the NBA. Give him a few years and he could be special.

Pelton: Paging Sam Hinkie?