Emmanuel Mudiay's run for No. 1

Okafor, Towns and Russell are strolling along the tree-lined sidewalks of three of the best universities in the country. They're figuring out how to write papers, study for tests and how to balance the paradox of being celebrities and unpaid students.

Mudiay has been riding his bicycle to practice through the crowded streets of Guangdong, China, for the past five months. He doesn't speak the language. He lives with his mother. There are no classes, no Midnight Madness, no nightlife to speak of. He's making a ton of money but has nothing to really spend it on right now.

While Okafor, Towns and Russell are building their brands by starring weekly in front of millions on national TV, Mudiay, on most game nights since late November, has taken his position at the end of the bench, the highest-paid 18-year-old part-time cheerleader, part-time practice player in the world.

Okafor, Towns and Russell are being mentored by three Hall of Fame coaches with a long track record of getting their players drafted at the top of the lottery. Mudiay's head coach, Du Feng, is a former Chinese Olympian and pro basketball player who has never gotten anyone drafted.

One of these four top prospects in the NBA draft is not like the other -- for good and for bad.

Limited exposure

Since deciding in July to withdraw from his commitment to play for Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown at SMU and take a lucrative deal to play professionally in China, Mudiay has played a total of 12 basketball games (averaging 18 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 5.9 APG in 30 MPG) -- none of them in front of the decision-makers who will decide whom to draft at the top of the lottery in late June.

Before a surprise appearance in Games 3 and 4 of the Chinese Basketball Association playoffs on March 1 and 3, Mudiay hadn't played a minute in an official game of basketball since Nov. 23.

Three days after being resurrected off the bench, Mudiay's basketball career in China ended -- mostly sight unseen -- after a Guangdong overtime playoff loss on Tuesday.

Dozens of high-profile NBA general managers and scouts have canceled trips to China to see him play. Most were relegated to watching tape of the 10 games he played in China before hurting his ankle and ultimately being replaced on the roster by former Detroit Piston Will Bynum.

In a world of draft stock and hype, Mudiay is invisible.

Out of sight. Out of mind.

"If we had him right now, we'd be ranked one, two or three in the country," Larry Brown said in a phone interview with ESPN.com. "And along with Russell and Okafor, he'd be the biggest name in college basketball right now. He'd have a brand right now. I tried to tell the family, but he had other people in his ears, and, ultimately, I supported his decision. The kid just wanted to play basketball, but he had a family to support."

It wasn't supposed to be this way.

Prep star

One year ago, Mudiay was the hottest high school player in the country. The Congolese refugee was a McDonald's All American. He was a consensus top-five player, according to all of the major scouting services. In the 2014 Nike Hoop Summit, with NBA scouts and GMs sitting in the stands, he impressed with 20 points, three assists and three steals in a loss for the World Team.

After the Hoop Summit, numerous GMs and scouts told me Mudiay was a serious contender for the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA draft.

Here was my scouting report the day after I attended the Hoop Summit:

"If there was one standout prospect from the week, it was Mudiay. Both before and especially after the game, many of the NBA GMs and scouts I spoke with thought Mudiay had the best shot of anyone in this class of being the No. 1 pick and a future All-Star.

"NBA folks love point guards with both size [6-foot-5, 196 pounds] and athleticism, and Mudiay has both. He's a quick, powerful guard who can get to the basket and finish above the rim. He led all scorers at the Hoop Summit with 20 points and also had five rebounds, five assists and one steal, with just one turnover.

"He can overdribble the ball at times, his decision-making and feel for running the point is still a work in progress and his jumper needs a lot of work. But the raw talent to be a Derrick Rose-type power point guard in the NBA is there. The fact that Brown, one of the most respected point guard coaches in the NBA, is his head coach next year is also earning him points among scouts who believe that Brown will get the junk out of his game and make him a better NBA point guard for the NBA.

"If he has a big season for SMU, he has a great shot at going No. 1."

Mudiay debuted at No. 2 in our first 2015 NBA draft Top 100 the day after the 2014 NBA draft. A few weeks later, he shocked the college basketball world by telling coach Brown he'd decided to turn pro and play professional basketball overseas.

"I was excited about going to SMU and playing college basketball for Coach Brown and his staff and preparing for the NBA, but I was tired of seeing my mom struggle," Mudiay told SI.com at the time. "And after sitting down with Coach Brown and my family, we decided that the best way for me to provide for my mom was to forgo college and pursue professional basketball opportunities."

Mudiay would eventually receive an endorsement deal with Under Armour potentially worth as much as $10 million and a $1.2 million basketball contract to play with the Guangdong Tigers in China.

Other high school players had gone a similar route. Brandon Jennings dropped his commitment to Arizona to play in Rome. Jeremy Tyler skipped out on his senior year of high school and his freshman season of college at Louisville to play in Israel and later Japan.

But the experience didn't go well for either player. And neither player was in line to be a potential No. 1 pick in the draft before skipping college.

Decision backlash

Mudiay was immediately attacked by some for being either naive or selfish. Questions about his eligibility at SMU loomed. Some questioned his character and whether the move would hurt his draft stock.

Brown, who was burned by Mudiay more than anyone, scoffs at all of the criticism that came Mudiay's way.

"It wasn't his choice," Brown told ESPN.com. "When someone tells you you get a $10 million shoe deal and $1.2 million contract, I supported that. He didn't have anything. His family made that decision. There are no character issues at all with that kid. He had a chance to take care of his family and he took it. If you think the kid is a problem, then you don't know the kid at all."

Despite Mudiay's decision to skip college, he held firm at No. 2 on our Big Board through the rest of the summer and into the fall. The draft was devoid of top-level point guards or other elite prospects, with the exception of Okafor and Towns.

And there was precedent. Dante Exum, a young point guard from Australia, had just been drafted with the No. 5 pick in the loaded 2014 draft despite finishing his high school career in Australia in December and spending the rest of the year working out in a gym in Los Angeles in preparation for the draft.

If he could do it, so could Mudiay.

Overseas experiment

Mudiay's debut in China came on Nov. 1, the first game of the CBA season. Mudiay started and scored 18 points, grabbed five rebounds and handed out two assists. He shot just 5-for-16 from the field in the loss to Beijing, but the general feeling in China was that Mudiay was for real.

Mudiay exploded in his second game. He scored 29 points, grabbed nine rebounds and handed out seven assists coming off the bench for Guangdong (along with committing six turnovers). While defense isn't a big part of Chinese basketball (former South Florida star and Dallas Mavericks first-round pick Dominique Jones scored 44 points that night for the opposing team) hence the high stats, the result was nevertheless impressive.

"It's pretty tough for a high school guy to come over there and play," one high-level NBA scout who made the trip to China at the start of Mudiay's season told ESPN.com. "He's playing against talented guys every night who were either elite college players or borderline NBA players. They're all at least four years older than he is. What was clear from those early games was that his confidence level is high. He doesn't back down. When he makes mistakes, he played through it and never seemed to get rattled."

Our source was one of the few high-level NBA scouts to get to China in Mudiay's first 10 games. A large contingent of scouts had lined up a trip in early December to see Mudiay play, but his ankle injury suffered on Nov. 23 scuttled their plans.

What was clear from those early games was that his confidence level is high. He doesn't back down. When he makes mistakes, he played through it and never seemed to get rattled. -- NBA scout

Here's what that NBA scout saw when he was in China:

"I saw him in several practices and games just after the start of the season," the scout said. "I'm enamored with his athletic ability. He has incredible potential. He always plays in attack mode. He has terrific quickness and speed, both north to south and east to west. He plays with both gears, which is really impressive for a kid his age. He has things that just can't be taught. He plays hard, fast, reckless.

"His shot is OK. It's not broken," the scout continued. "He can hit shots from anywhere on the floor. It's more about shot selection. At times, he was forcing shots.

"Defense was a big part of his success early in China," he added. "He could defend anyone. There's not a lot of defense in China -- which is something that stands out. You tell him to do something, he does it. On side and high pick-and-rolls he's good at forcing his offensive player down. He can keep a player to the side of the court and keep them over there without them turning. Coaches will love him on the pick-and-roll. He pursues and his hands are active. My only real knock on him defensively is that, at times, he's trying to leak out because he's so offensive oriented."

But the scouting report had its fair share of flaws as well.

"I felt like he was looking to score too much," the same NBA scout said. "To be a NBA point guard, he has to become a better passer. In China, he's more of a shoot-first instead of a pass-first player. At times, I felt like he played out of control. He was forcing a lot of plays. Because of his strength and size he was able to score and have success because they don't play defense, but in the NBA, he's going to have to play smarter. You're going to have to live through his turnovers. You have to have a coach that's patient."

By late November, Guangdong's head coach was running out of it. Two sources close to the team told me that had Mudiay not injured his ankle, the team would've likely looked to find a veteran replacement anyway. While Mudiay was playing incredibly well for an 18-year-old and the team was an impressive 8-1 before Mudiay got injured, the coach wanted an NBA veteran with more experience. Bynum, or someone like him, was probably coming anyway.

By the time Mudiay had recovered fully from his ankle injury in mid-December, Bynum had taken over his minutes and Mudiay was relegated to spectator.

Bynum was good, by the way, but he wasn't much better than Mudiay. They posted similar numbers across the board in everything but 3-point shooting. Still, as Mudiay sat, and Okafor, Towns and especially Russell began to dominate at the collegiate level, his chances of being the No. 1 pick in the draft began to dwindle.

As teams pored over Mudiay's game film, most of them came away thinking it was inconclusive. I spoke with a number of other NBA scouts and GMs who are familiar with Mudiay's games on tape. Some wrung their hands over missed free throws, pedestrian 3-point shooting and turnovers. But most were concerned with something entirely different -- 10 games in China just isn't much to go on when deciding whether to take a player at the top of the draft.

"Those games really tell us nothing," a veteran international scout told ESPN.com. "There's not much defense played in China, if any at all. The real work comes from getting info on how he is working and handling the pro game."

Development

That background intel on Mudiay is coming back even more positive than his performances in China.

"Everyone there has been really positive about him," another NBA scout told ESPN.com. "I've spoken to his coach, to his teammates, to his opponents. They are all saying the right things about his professionalism and his work ethic. He doesn't complain. Even when he was healthy and wasn't getting any minutes, he was great. He fits in with everyone. He's polite. Gets along well with others. I don't think there's any question he's a great kid."

Said another scout who was put in charge of doing background checks on Mudiay: "His being away from home has helped mature him. It's hard to live in a foreign country as an 18-year-old. He's been a professional, and I think that has a lot to do with his background as a refugee. He's been through much harder things than playing pro ball in China. He's going to have a leg up on the college kids because it's a different life over there."

Added another scout about the mentoring Mudiay has received: "He's also been around a bunch of former NBA and D-League guys who are out of the league and want to be back in. He knows he has to work hard; he knows it's a gift to play there. Those vets are telling him what it takes to make it."

It just goes to show you how far the kid had developed. In November they weren't convinced he could carry them to the finals. In March they were asking him to save the season. -- NBA scout

Mudiay's development was never more evident than on Sunday, when he was activated before Game 3 in the playoffs. Guangdong was down 2-0 in the playoffs to Beijing. One more loss and the Tigers' season would be over.

A source close to the team told ESPN.com that several players approached management about activating Mudiay for Game 3. He had been playing so well in practice that the players thought he could give them a chance to stave off elimination. He had earned the right.

Mudiay, who hadn't played in more than three months, came off the bench on Sunday, scoring 17 points in the first half and ending with 24 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and just 2 turnovers. He shot 8-for-19 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. Most importantly, Guangdong won the game, forcing a Game 4.

"It just goes to show you," one NBA scout told ESPN.com, "how far the kid had developed. In November they weren't convinced he could carry them to the finals. In March they were asking him to save the season."

Just two days after Mudiay's triumphant return on Sunday, his season was over. Mudiay posted 15 points, 8 assists, 7 rebounds and 4 turnovers while shooting 5-for-14 from the field in an overtime loss to Beijing. Guangdong's season was over. The Mudiay Chinese experiment was over. He's now free to return to the United States to begin preparing for the 2015 NBA draft.

Draft stock, outlook

Mudiay's career in the CBA won't define him, however. It's the NBA that matters. Teams are scrambling to know where he fits in the draft. Is he a real point guard or a combo guard? Just how good of an athlete is he? Can he shoot it well enough to keep defenses honest? Is he just a good prospect or an elite one?

Of the two dozen or so NBA scouts and executives I spoke with, all of them currently have Mudiay ranked somewhere between two and five on their internal team big boards. A small handful still believe he has a chance to be the No. 1 pick.

"The two guys with the biggest upsides in the draft are Mudiay and Towns," one NBA GM told ESPN. "Okafor and Russell are more sure things, but neither of those guys have the ceiling of Mudiay and Towns. And of those four, Mudiay is the best athlete. I can understand a team taking any of those four guys No. 1. But if you're asking me who has the chance to be a game-changer in the NBA, I think it's Mudiay. Big risk, big reward."

That's a minority opinion right now. But he's not the only one. Mudiay's biggest supporter is the coach he spurned in July.

Brown, the guy who has mentored Allen Iverson, Mark Jackson and Chauncey Billups, among others, thinks Mudiay is going to be "special."

"This league [the NBA] is all about point guards," Brown said. "Can you defend the pick-and-roll? Can you keep guys in front of you? Can you make people better? Can you score when necessary? He has all of that.

"He has unbelievable size and athleticism for a point guard," Brown continued. "You don't usually find guys that size that are point guards. Guys like [Russell] Westbrook, [John] Wall and Rose evolved into real point guards, but at first they were just great athletes. What separated him was he was already a great point guard. He has an unbelievable feel for the game."

And how does he compare to his main competition, D'Angelo Russell? Slightly more than half of the NBA scouts and execs I spoke with had Mudiay ranked ahead of Russell as the top guard prospect in the draft. It's basically 50/50 right now, but Brown doesn't see it that way at all.

"They aren't at all the same," Brown said. "Russell's a better shooter. He sees the floor, but he's not a point guard. He's just a basketball player. I don't think you want him bringing up the ball or initiating the offense. I don't know [if] he could guard the point. He hasn't had to guard point guards. Defense is such an underrated thing for these young guards. If you can't guard pick-and-rolls, it breaks everything. I used to tell Mudiay every day, 'You are going to have guard Russell Westbrook one night and then Derrick Rose the next night. It never stops.' I used to tease him about that. Point guard is the premier position in the NBA these days. You have to get it done on both ends of the floor."

That's the question that teams at the top of the draft, such as the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers -- all teams in desperate need of point guard help -- will be carefully studying the next four months. He'll do workouts, but it's unlikely, given his draft position, that he'll work out against anyone. Shooting jumpers and going through drills against chairs in empty gyms aren't going to tell anyone much of anything. None of the teams at the top of the draft can afford to make a mistake at this critical juncture in the rebuilding process. Will they risk taking a mystery man over a known commodity lighting up scoreboards on college basketball's biggest stage?

"I just wish he had gone to play with Larry [Brown] for the season," one NBA exec said. "I think he needed that. I think we needed to see that to be sure. I think he could have been the No. 1 pick had he played for Larry at SMU. Now, it's anyone's guess, and you know this league: We can be a bit risk-averse."

Brown says the NBA guys will get what they asked -- a Larry Brown-coached Mudiay -- just a little later than they thought.

"He's coming to hang out with me when his season is over," Brown said. "I'll get him ready. He's going to be special. Just wait and see."

Mudiay's push to be the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA draft might have only just begun.