Is Myles Turner a top-5 pick?

"Bigs" Stockwatch | Big Board 5.0

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Question: Does Myles Turner deserve consideration as a top-5 pick in the 2015 draft?

Kevin Pelton: The last two weeks, we've talked about the consensus top-2 big men prospects in college basketball, Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns. As I mentioned last week, however, another freshman post player ranks ahead of both of them in my WARP projections: Myles Turner of the Texas Longhorns. Per 40 minutes, Turner is averaging 20.9 points, 12.0 rebounds and 4.9 blocks. He's shown college 3-point range, making 13 triples at a 35.1 percent clip. And Turner won't turn 19 until midway through the NCAA tournament. So, Chad, should teams consider him in the same echelon as Okafor and Towns?

Chad Ford: He's a pretty polarizing player among scouts. Some absolutely love him and see him as a contender for a top-5 pick. Others are very wary. The upside is clearly there -- he's an athletic 7-footer who can stretch the floor, rebound and protect the rim. Those guys don't come along every day. But Turner has been inconsistent, especially against elite teams, and so many scouts can't get over the awkward way that he runs the floor -- sort of like an old man with two bad knees playing pickup ball at the YMCA.

Pelton: Performance against elite teams is an understandable concern. Turner has been a different player against better opponents. Here's how his performance breaks down by opponents ranked in the top 100 by KenPom.com, and all others.

Turner performance by opponent

At the same time, I'm a believer that the bigger sample is almost always more telling than the smaller sample, so I wouldn't put too much in the difference over fewer than a dozen games.

Ford: I'm really intrigued, and everyone else is too, I think. But it feels like both Okafor and Towns are just surer things at this point. So maybe you could help explain why the numbers favor Turner over both Okafor and Towns.

Question: How does Turner compare to Okafor and Towns?

Pelton: Let's take a look at some key stats.

Top freshmen post players

In some ways, Turner represents the middle ground between Okafor (the best offensive player of the group) and Towns (the best defender), in large part because of his excellent free throw shooting. He's been efficient while carrying a heavy load on offense, yet he's also one of the nation's better shot-blockers. Two hidden advantages for Turner: First, his 3-point attempts help him with the spacing bonus my WARP system awards outside shooters; second, his turnover rate is incredibly low, which tends to be a subtle skill. Do those numbers match up with what scouts are seeing?

Ford: They do. Turner is clearly the unique 4 who can both stretch the floor and protect the rim. Floor spacing and rim-protection are huge pluses in the NBA. Obviously the potential is there for Turner to be special. Again, I think it's the questions about the long-term health of his knees and questions about how uneven his performances have been that have given rise to caution. But look, the potential to be a top-3 pick is there, and if Turner pulls off a string of stellar games toward the end of the season, he could be right there on draft night -- assuming all goes well in the physicals.

So given that he's the top guy on your board, how does Turner compare to other top picks, and do you have a good comp for him?

Question: How does Turner compare to past prospects?

Pelton: As discussed in the Okafor breakdown, the typical No. 1 pick has been projected for an average of 3.1 WARP during their first four seasons in the NBA. Turner's current WARP projection is 3.0, so he's right in that average range. That puts him a little ahead of Joel Embiid last season (2.9 projected WARP).