Top 100 | Big Board 5.0 | Mock Draft 2.0
The strength of the 2015 NBA draft is its bigs. Right now we are projecting that 10 of the first 18 players to come off the board will be either centers or power forwards.
The members of this big-man group come in all varieties. There are big, burly, back-to-the-basket big men. There are elite shot-blockers and rebounders. There are bigs who can stretch the floor and even handle the rock. Regardless of what type of big you are looking for, there's someone for you in this draft.
Here's a Stock Watch update on how the top 10 bigs on our Big Board are faring right now:
Jahlil Okafor, C, Fr., Duke Blue Devils
Kevin Pelton and I broke down Okafor less than two weeks ago. Nothing has really changed -- Okafor is by far the hands-down favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Since Kevin and I wrote last, he had 18 points and 7 rebounds in a win over Louisville followed by 14 points and 5 assists in a win over Pittsburgh and 17 points and 10 rebounds in a victory at St. John's on Sunday. While scouts wish his rebounding, shot-blocking numbers and overall defense were better, offensively he's the best big on our Board.
Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Fr., Kentucky Wildcats
Pelton and I spilled some digital ink on Towns on Friday. Again, there's very little that has changed. Teams interested in Towns aren't particularly deterred by his stats right now (he scored just four points in 12 minutes versus South Carolina on Saturday). It's his rebounding and especially his shot-blocking, combined with soft hands and a good perimeter jumper, that intrigue them. As Pelton and I discussed, think of Towns as a bigger version of Al Horford. There have been some concerns about Towns' toughness, and that helped explain why he got just 12 minutes in a very physical game against South Carolina. Those concerns aren't anything new and could keep Towns from ever seriously challenging Okafor for the No. 1 pick.
Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
Porzingis is averaging 9.3 PPG and 4.7 RPG while shooting 35.5 percent from 3-point range for Baloncesto Sevilla in the Spanish ACB. His numbers in Eurocup play are even a little stronger: 10.9 PPG and 4.3 RPG on 47 percent shooting from 3. Many international scouts think that he's a more athletic version of Bulls rookie Nikola Mirotic. That's high praise. If Mirotic had been in the 2014 NBA draft, I believe he would've been drafted in the top five or six. Porzingis might not be as NBA-ready as Mirotic was coming out of the gate, but he's got an even higher ceiling.
Kevon Looney, PF, Fr., UCLA Bruins
Looney is another upside pick. While his game, both offensively and defensively, is raw, the tools are there for him to be a Lamar Odom-type player at the next level. Thanks to his length, good athleticism and terrific motor, there isn't much Looney can't do. He's an excellent rebounder, especially on the offensive glass (he's currently averaging a double-double). He has 3-point range on his jump shot. He can handle the ball and he can play in the post. His performance the past five games in Pac-12 play has been pretty encouraging. Looney needs to get stronger and polish virtually every area of his game, but there is so much potential that he looks like a lock as a top-10 pick.
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Jr., Kentucky Wildcats
Cauley-Stein has been considered a potential lottery pick since his freshman year, but he's finally living up to the hype. His game continues to mature and scouts are more comfortable saying he'll be an elite defender in the NBA -- someone who has the rare ability to guard centers and wings. However, Cauley-Stein's offensive numbers, after spiking a bit in mid-December, have been pretty dismal of late. He had just two points against South Carolina, six points against Vanderbilt, four against Texas A&M and five against Louisville. Exactly how high can a player go who struggles to score in the double digits as a college junior? The Kentucky platoon surely has something to do with it, but he's still averaging nearly 25 minutes per game in conference play.
Myles Turner, PF, Fr., Texas Longhorns
Scouts tend to either love or hate Turner right now. He's an analytics darling (something Pelton and I will soon address in our draft articles) and there have been games, mostly against weaker competition, in which he's looked worthy of the No. 1 pick. The challenge is that Turner tends to struggle when paired against top competition. He still lacks strength and can get bullied. Regardless, scouts who like him see a huge, athletic forward who both protects the rim at an elite level and can stretch the floor with the 3-point shot. His detractors note that he lacks strength, is inconsistent and runs so awkwardly that they're worried there could be issues (either now or long-term) with his knees. He might be the single hardest guy to place on the board right now.
Bobby Portis, PF, So., Arkansas Razorbacks
Pelton and I wrote about Portis last week as a potential draft sleeper. He responded that evening by hitting the game-winning shot against Alabama (despite going just 4-for-12 from the field). On Sunday, he scored 12 points and grabbed 10 boards in a win against Missouri. While Portis isn't really an elite anything, he does just about everything a power forward should do well. That may never be enough to get him to crack the top 10, but it should put him somewhere in the late lottery to mid-first round.
Jakob Poeltl, C, Fr., Utah Utes
After a very hot start to his career in late November and early December, Poeltl has cooled off considerably. However, that hasn't deterred scouts from looking favorably on his long-term future as an NBA center. He's a very good rebounder, a solid shot-blocker and has tools on the offensive end. His biggest problem right now is a lack of strength. Poeltl has a tendency to get pushed around a lot. Obviously that will be an even bigger issue in the NBA, and might be the encouragement he needs to return to Utah for his sophomore season. But if he decided to declare now, someone would take him in the first round just based on his long-term upside.
Montrezl Harrell, PF, Jr., Louisville Cardinals
As I've said many times, Harrell might be one of the most consistent players to appear on our Board for some time. The past couple of years he's essentially hung around the middle of the Big Board in the 10 to 20 range. His lack of elite size keeps him from climbing too high, but his athleticism, length and motor keep him from falling too low. Whoever drafts Harrell may not be getting a star, but his new team will be getting the type of blue-collar power forward whom fans and coaches love.
Frank Kaminsky, C, Sr., Wisconsin Badgers
Kaminsky has followed up a very strong junior season with an elite senior season. He's a rare 5 who can rebound, block shots and stretch the floor. Of all the bigs on our list he's probably the best 3-point shooter (Turner would be a close second). The question so many scouts have is: Will his game translate? Will he be strong enough and athletic enough to guard in the post? And while he's proved to be a very good shooter the past two seasons from 3-point range (especially for a big), is that skill enough to make him a high draft pick? Some scouts strongly believe that it is. Others believe equally strongly that he'll struggle in the NBA. His ranking here essentially splits the difference.
Robert Upshaw, C, Free Agent
Upshaw has been one of the fastest risers on our draft board this season. He's been a dominating shot-blocking and rebounding force, and looked like he was set up to make a move into the first round. However, on Monday, Washington announced that it dismissed Upshaw from the program for a violation of team rules. This comes after Upshaw was dismissed from Fresno State in 2013 for violating team rules as well. The talent is clearly there, but it's also clear that Upshaw might need help, and those questions over his dismissals should keep him planted in the second round, where players require less financial risk or commitment.
Others to watch: Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas; Christian Wood, PF, UNLV; Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky; Egemen Guven, PF, Turkey; Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse; Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga; Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain; Amida Brimah, C, UConn; Wang Zhelin, C, China; Chris Walker, PF, Florida; Damian Jones, C, Vanderbilt; Rakeem Christmas, PF, Syracuse; Jarell Martin, PF, LSU; Kennedy Meeks, C, North Carolina; Brice Johnson, PF, North Carolina; Mouhammadou Jaiteh, PF, France; Shevon Thompson, C, George Mason