The 2015 NBA draft lottery will feature some of the nation's premier freshmen big men, and Texas' 6-foot-11 center Myles Turner no doubt belongs in that group. Though he was less hyped in high school compared to fellow first-year college big men Jahlil Okafor (ESPN's No. 1-rated player) and Karl-Anthony Towns (No. 9) due to a broken ankle, Turner earned the No. 2 overall ranking and signed with Texas over Kansas.
Similar to Towns at Kentucky, Turner is sharing minutes on a crowded and talented front line. But after watching a lot of games both in person and on film, it's clear to me that he has the most long-term potential of the Longhorns' post players.
The most impressive aspects of Turner's game are his shooting touch, his length and his age. He won't even turn 19 until March 24. Unfortunately, Texas will not reap the benefits of his vast potential, because he will be long gone from Austin before that happens.
For his size, Turner shoots the basketball better than average from post-ups off the lane, in the midrange and behind the college 3-point arc. His current 88.6 percent free throw shooting is an indication of his soft touch.
Because Turner has a high release point on his shot, coupled with his long frame, he has a turnaround shot in the low post that has become his weapon of choice. He also has developed an ability to pivot quickly and square up in the air while pivoting that is very, very hard to defend.
In this game at Iowa State, notice how quickly and efficiently Turner gets his shot off.
Because of Turner's lack of strength right now, he is more comfortable playing from 10 feet away from the basket as opposed to banging bodies inside.
Turner has good footwork in the low post for a young big man. He uses "the Sikma move" (so named for former NBA star Jack Sikma), which allows him to pivot away from his defender inside and create the separation needed to get his shot off. I've also seen him use a Dirk Nowitzki fadeaway shot that, with practice, will be a nice "bread-and-butter" move some day.
After hitting a turnaround jump shot versus Iowa State, watch how quickly he spins off the Cyclones' defender who is anticipating another jump shot.
Turner also has the potential to become a very good face-up shooter for his size. His 35 percent 3-point shooting percentage is pedestrian at the moment, but his inconsistency is mainly attributable to his lack of strength and repetitions. But I like his shooting form because it's compact and repetitive, can be repeated and honed and he has that high release point.
Here is a good example of Turner's shooting stroke as he hits a corner 3-point shot against West Virginia. Notice how high his release point is on his shot.
Defensively, while not an explosive athlete and jumper, he possesses very good timing around the basket. Coupled with his 7-foot-4 wing span, this has turned him into a very good college shot-blocker. His 12.6 block rate is currently the 14th-best in the country.
For a young post player, he is rarely baited by shot fakes and stays on his feet until the offensive player leaves the floor. Here are two plays where Turner exhibits his excellent shot-blocking ability. Watch as he's the second player to leave the floor.
While Turner is likely to fall somewhere in the NBA draft lottery, he will need to make major adjustments to his game that will take time. Because of his age, lack of strength and his body type, the physicality of the NBA will be a major issue early in his career.
Similar sentiments were made about former Longhorns and current NBA star LaMarcus Aldridge when he was in Austin. Aldridge benefited, both physically and mentally, however, from his second year at Texas before being selected as the No. 2 pick in the 2006 NBA draft. Turner will not likely get that opportunity to improve the same way.
NBA scouts I have talked to describe Turner to me as a "high hips" guy in the post, meaning his narrow base will make him easy to move off the lane. Ideally, he will be able, at some point in his career, to add the necessary 25 pounds or so that will enable him to battle inside. All indications are that he is a diligent worker in the Texas weight room.
Another area of concern for Turner is his average lateral quickness for an NBA big man. This will particularly affect him in defending pick-and-roll plays versus NBA point guards, who are arguably the most explosive athletes in the league right now.
While Turner has played better lately, overall he has had inconsistent results against the 13 power conference opponents he has faced. In December against Kentucky's massive front line, and in front of scouts from every NBA team, he had a 6-point, 5-rebound performance on 1-of-5 shooting before fouling out.
Overall, in roughly 24 minutes against Texas' best opponents, he has averaged 9.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.5 blocked shots. And he is shooting 37 percent from the field and nearly 29 percent behind the arc.
If there is a saving grace, offensively, it is his outstanding free throw shooting.
Because the NBA draft has become a "projection draft," and not one that usually fills immediate needs for teams, Turner will still end up in the lottery, in my opinion. But like so many young players coming into the NBA, his chance to impact a good team or help a poor team improve will be a work in progress.
It would be ideal for Turner's development that he stays one more season in college and become the Longhorns' go-to guy as a sophomore. But, given the nature of basketball today, that's very unlikely to happen.