UFC Fight Night: Expert picks, best bets for Moreno-Albazi

Former two-time UFC men's flyweight champion Brandon Moreno will look to get back on the title track against fellow contender Amir Albazi in the main event at UFC Fight Night in Edmonton, Alberta, on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 5 p.m. on ESPN+).

Moreno, No. 3 in ESPN's men's flyweight rankings, enters the fight following a loss to Brandon Royval in February. Albazi, who is unranked due to being inactive for 17 months, is undefeated in his five fights in the UFC.

In the co-main event, Erin Blanchfield clashes with former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas in a contest with title fight implications. Blanchfield, No. 4 in ESPN's women's flyweight rankings, is coming off her first UFC loss to Manon Fiorot. Namajunas, ranked No. 10 at flyweight, is on a two-fight win streak.

Andreas Hale spoke to UFC and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the main event and UFC strawweight Angela Hill to break down the co-main. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insights and analysis on the two fights and other intriguing bets he likes on Saturday's card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Men's flyweight: Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi

Din Thomas, UFC and ESPN analyst

How Moreno wins: He has to get behind the jab. To do that, he has to use his footwork and keep space. He has a very good jab -- it's long, snappy and works well. He can use it to set up the right hand, which can be thrown in many forms, whether a straight or an uppercut. But he will need to use the jab to get those weapons off. He does well with guys he can take down or at least threaten to take down. His wrestling isn't the greatest, but he can use it to get to his opponent's back. It helps him chew up a lot of time or threaten submissions.

How Albazi wins: Stylistically, this is not a great matchup for Moreno. The takedowns of Moreno won't be much of a threat to Albazi, who is the better wrestler. He has to march Moreno down, get behind his 1-2, keep it simple, be patient, track him and utilize takedowns to get the fight to the floor or up against the fence. Albazi wins by using a very simple style. I don't see a lot of excitement with that strategy, but it will work.

X factor: Albazi's power. He has sneaky power in those punches and he may be able to hurt Moreno in exchanges.

Prediction: Albazi by underwhelming decision.

Betting analysis

Parker: Moreno to win (-155). This is the biggest test of Albazi's career, and if he can't get this fight to the ground and keep it there, I don't see another way he can win. Moreno is coming off back-to-back split-decision losses against the now-champ Pantoja and No. 1 contender Royval. I think Moreno caught a bad break against Royval, as I thought he won. However, it showed he still has the skill set, even in defeat, to compete at the top of the division. I believe Moreno has good enough takedown defense to keep this on the feet, where he will have the advantage. With Albazi also being out for some time, it will be interesting to see how he jumps right back in, especially in a potentially 25-minute, fast-paced fight.

Women's flyweight: Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas

Angela Hill, UFC strawweight

How Namajunas wins: Rose wins by staying light on her feet, keeping distance with her strikes, using her lateral movement to evade Blanchfield takedown attempts and scoring her own takedowns later in the fight if she feels comfortable. Namajunas wins this fight as long as she doesn't get too complacent when Blanchfield becomes aggressive.

How Blanchfield wins: She has to push the pace. She must also use cutoffs to counter Namajunas' footwork and her weirdly hard head kick. When she's out in the open, Blanchfield has to hit takedowns so Namajunas isn't able to use the cage wall to get up. She has to grind Namajunas down and also be patient on the ground.

X factor: Blanchfield's confidence. If she begins to doubt herself and sees Rose as one of the best, it could be trouble for her. There are ways that Namajunas can mimic the things Fiorot used to beat Blanchfield and put her in the place she was when she lost her first fight. But if Blanchfield can overcome that, she has a chance.

Prediction: Namajunas by decision.

Betting analysis

Parker: Namajunas to win (+115), fight goes the distance. To get the win over Blanchfield, Namajunas needs to implement the blueprint laid out by Fiorot: Keep the fight standing. Namajunas has excellent takedown defense and jiu-jitsu, but the difference in this fight will be cardio and striking -- which favors "Thug Rose." We saw Blanchfield struggle terribly against Fiorot. She couldn't land a takedown and was forced to fight standing, which is not her forte. I expect this fight to go all five rounds, so if you're OK laying additional money, take that play. There is also real value in Namajunas winning at plus-money.

Best bets across UFC Fight Night

Heavyweight: Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz

Diniz to win (-175), win by KO/TKO. Buckle up and don't blink during this matchup, as it should be very entertaining for as long as it lasts. We may even see Lewis attempt some wrestling here, which would be wise, given his opponent's striking ability. If Lewis gets the takedown, he still needs to finish Diniz, as we have seen that if you don't put Diniz away, he can get you at some point. If Diniz wins, it's getting done by KO/TKO, so take the prop and get that line down in a parlay.

Featherweight: Jack Shore vs. Youssef Zalal

Zalal to win (-275), win by submission or decision. Riding a two-fight win streak, both by submission, Zalal has been on a tear since returning to the UFC -- and I don't see it stopping against Shore. Although Shore is well-rounded, he is coming off a TKO loss and an injury that has had him sidelined since May. This is a tough stylistic matchup for Shore because wherever he is good, Zalal is better. With Zalal as the favorite, add him to your parlay, or to get the line down, take him to win by double method of victory -- submission or decision.

Men's bantamweight: Chad Anheliger vs. Cody Gibson

Gibson to win (-195). Gibson looked like a one-way wrecking machine in his last fight against Brian Kelleher, and if he competes with that same level of aggression, it won't shock me if he gets his second finish in a row. Anheliger is very durable and has great cardio, but he isn't better than Gibson anywhere in the Octagon and will be at a significant size and reach disadvantage. I would bet Gibson as high as -210 here, as this should be a showcase win for him.