Heavyweight contenders Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev go head-to-head in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas on Saturday night (4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 1:30 p.m. on ESPN+).
Rozenstruik (13-5) lost to Jailton Almeida via first-round submission in his last fight at UFC Fight Night in May 2023. He has lost three of his previous four bouts. Gaziev (12-0) will be in just his second fight in the Octagon after earning a UFC contract on Season 7 of "Dana White's Contender Series" last September.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Heavyweight: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Rozenstruik wins: In a five-round main event, Rozenstruik needs to weather the early storm and avoid getting backed against the cage, which is where Gaziev excels. Look for Rozenstruik to utilize counter punches, particularly looping ones over Gaziev's straight shots. While that game plan is risky due to potential takedowns, incorporating low kicks strategically, especially when Gaziev is moving backward, could effectively slow his forward movement.
How Gaziev wins: Gaziev's path of least resistance seems to be taking Rozenstruik down, given his prowess in top-side half-guard. While Gaziev possesses striking skills that could secure him the win, putting himself at risk-- especially in the heavyweight division -- seems unnecessary.
X factor: Gaziev's strength of schedule adds an intriguing element. Headlining a main event in only his second UFC fight mirrors scenarios seen with other top prospects like Abus Magomedov, which didn't end favorably -- Magomedov lost to Sean Strickland by second-round knockout. Could this challenge be too soon for Gaziev?
Prediction: Gaziev to win. While Rozenstruik holds veteran value, Gaziev's ground game presents a significant challenge. Anticipate a potential TKO via ground-and-pound by Gaziev, likely in Round 2 or 3.
Betting analysis
Parker: Gaziev to win (-160). Rozenstruik is an excellent striker. But, even with 12 UFC fights on his résumé, Rozenstruik hasn't improved at all when the fight goes to the ground. In his last fight, it only took minutes for Almeida to take him down and submit him. It's hard to imagine the same thing doesn't happen here against Gaziev. Although eight of Gaziev's 12 wins have come via knockout, and Rozenstruik has been knocked out several times, the safe play here is to think that Gaziev will use his wrestling background to put Rozenstruik on his back and then end this fight quickly.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Men's flyweight: Alex Perez vs. Muhammad Mokaev
Kuhn: Mokaev to win (-370). This will be the most affordable of some chalky plays on this week's card. These two fighters spend more time controlling opponents on the mat than any other fighters on the card. But Mokaev takes top marks, with over half of all Octagon time in ground control.
Mokaev is also a much younger and rangier fighter and has excellent head strike defense. If Perez is using his usual higher pace of stand-up striking, that should create opportunities for Mokaev to counter with takedowns.
Parker: Mokaev to win by submission. Mokaev is one of the blue-chip prospects to keep an eye on, and. his matchup has submission win for him written all over it. Not only has Perez lost his last two fights by way of submission, but that's how Mokaev has won his last three. So it's no secret what area of Perez's game Mokaev will target. Look for Mokaev to lean on his wrestling early, but if not, this fight could end up being more competitive than desired, as Perez is a solid striker. After a few back-and-forths, look for Mokaev to get the sub and continue his rise.
Men's bantamweight: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan
Parker: Nurmagomedov to win inside the distance. It has been over a year since we have seen Nurmagomedov compete in the Octagon. He was booked to fight Cory Sandhagen in August of 2023, but an injury put his title aspirations on hold. Now he takes on Almakhan, who will be making his UFC debut. Nurmagomedov is a -1200 favorite, so I will take him to make a statement and finish it inside the distance. Almakhan could be the real deal and an excellent fighter, but making your UFC debut against someone viewed as a future champion is challenging. Look for Nurmagomedov to land kicks early and take the fight to the floor, where he gets it done.
Men's flyweight: Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg
Parker: Erceg to win (-340). Matt Schnell's fights are must-see TV. Schnell is the type of fighter who goes out there with the kill-or-be-killed mentality. If it weren't for his epic comeback against Sumudaerji, he would be entering on a three-fight losing streak, all by way of finish. Against Erceg, Schnell must be nearly perfect if he plans to pull off the upset.
On the other hand, Erceg is a high-IQ fighter who is much more calculated. His first win was impressive as he beat David Dvorak on short notice and then returned with a gritty performance over Alessandro Costa. This fight is the perfect opportunity for Erceg to get his first UFC finish. Look for Erceg to drop Schnell and finish it with a submission. Schnell is a good litmus test for the rising prospect in Erceg.
Middleweight: Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett
Kuhn: Anders to win (-475). Anders is taking on a fighter riding a four-fight losing streak. Besides giving up some range, Anders brings key advantages to stand-up and ground positions. Anders is a proven striker, while Pickett's poor defense, lack of power and his four knockdowns received all suggest he'll be better off on his bicycle while on the feet.
Anders is also more likely to attempt takedowns. Though Pickett has above-average takedown defense, he's normally been on the receiving end of ground and pound. Anders can make for a parlay leg if the price doesn't drift further.
Men's bantamweight: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Javid Basharat
Kuhn: Basharat to win (-850). Zahabi allows opponents to outwork and outland him on the feet, while Basharat is a busy and accurate stand-up striker. The net difference of significant strikes delivered versus absorbed is unusually skewed, meaning with each minute, expect points to pile up for Basharat.
Neither spends the majority of time on the mat, but if it goes there, it's likely to be Basharat initiating. And once there, his control time is much better. Zahabi still has the puncher's chance, having scored three more knockdowns than Basharat, but the scoring favors the younger man.