Rising heavyweight contenders Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida will go head to head in the UFC Fight Night main event at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Saturday (3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+, with prelims at 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+).
Rozenstruik, 35, ranked No. 10 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is coming off a first-round knockout of Chris Daukaus at UFC 282. The heavyweight has a 7-4 record in the UFC. Almeida, unranked by ESPN, was arguably the top rookie in the UFC last year after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series in 2021. With a win on Saturday, Almeida would improve to 5-0 inside the Octagon.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the matchup. ESPN betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Heavyweight: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Rozenstruik wins: Rozenstruik's last time in the Octagon was a 23-second knockout against Chris Daukaus and he needs to take the same approach in this fight. Rozenstruik can't allow Almeida to get comfortable on the feet and dictate the pace. He needs to take over early, to set a precedent of keeping Almeida on the back foot. That will allow Rozenstruik to keep his back off the cage. He also needs to vary his strikes up the middle that deter the opponent's level change, or as I call them, anti-wrestling strikes.
How Almeida wins: Almeida will be undersized in this fight, but I think that will favor his movement and cardio if this goes to later rounds, or sees lengthy grappling exchanges. What I like about Almeida's ground game is his patience from position to position. He allows his ground and pound to do all his work for him. He's never married to a particular position, he'll cook you in one position with ground and pound until you give him his next route. This is his best path to victory. I game-planned for Rozenstruik before with Francis Ngannou, and many of the ground attacks we discussed are similar to Almeida's grappling ideologies. Look to neutralize the bottom leg, anchor in and rain down effective ground and pound until the finish or a submission appears.
X factor: "King Mo," aka Muhammad Lawal. The longer Rozenstruik trains with a wrestling coach like King Mo [at American Top Team] and surrounds himself with high-level wrestling, the more comfortable he'll become with his striking. Once he feels like he can defend the takedown, or get back up if he is taken down, the better Rozenstruik's game will round itself out. I'll be interested to see the ATT staff's game plan in attempting to turn away Almeida.
Prediction: This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup. Although the fight will start on the feet, Almeida will use his footwork and speed to stay out of trouble and eventually find his fit against Rozenstruik. Rozenstruik might be capable of surviving a round, but I think Almeida will get the finish late in the second round.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Almeida inside the distance (-335). After a streak of close main event matchups, we now have a lopsided pairing due to an extreme stylistic contrast. Almeida has looked unstoppable, finishing all four UFC opponents over just 20 minutes of fight time. That success relied upon his ground game, which he wastes no time initiating, averaging just 10 seconds between takedown attempts when he's on his feet.
Rozenstruik, who has excelled primarily when he can stand and trade, will be the more significant striking threat. But how long will his 75 percent takedown defense last? That transition point will be the key to this main event. Once on the mat, Rozenstruik has been handled by competent grapplers, and we can assume Almeida would make short work once the fight gets there.
This is a question of when, not if, for Almeida, but unfortunately, that's baked into his current price. You'll pay a premium for Almeida inside the distance, which accounts for a TKO by mounted flurry and a submission. At that price, it makes for a safe parlay leg.
Best bets on the rest of the UFC Fight Night card
Welterweight: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry
Kuhn: Garry to win (-250). This one should be a crowd-pleaser, as neither of these skilled strikers is interested in wrestling. On paper, they look similar in performance metrics, boasting high precision combined with an aggressive pace.
The difference is that Garry gets the edge due to his higher knockdown rate and tighter defense. Combined with an 11-year youth advantage, that should mean that Garry gets the better of exchanges round-to-round and is a bigger threat to finish. Rodriguez has faced superior talent and has more experience, but at some point, that cumulative damage takes a toll, especially now that he's on the wrong side of 35.
Lightweight: Carlos Ulberg vs. Ihor Potieria
Parker: Ulberg by KO/TKO. The difference here for Potieria is that Ulberg isn't a fading legend like his last fight against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and has tremendous speed and power for the weight. He'll find his target quickly, as Poteiria tends to leave his chin up with little defense and head movement.
Heavyweight: Karl Williams vs. Chase Sherman
Parker: Williams to win (-430), use in your parlay. Sherman will be the better boxer of the two, but Williams will have a significant advantage in the grappling and cardio department. Williams carries some serious power with his hands, allowing him to distract Sherman and then close the distance and get the takedown.
Once the fight hits the floor, it will be all Williams. Even if Sherman can get up, I expect Williams to take him back down repeatedly to get another win.
Bantamweight: Cody Stamann vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade
Kuhn: Stamann to win (-160). A much more affordable favorite is Stamann. Though both these fighters have a hit-or-miss record, they've fallen short primarily against upper-level talent. So don't underestimate the competitiveness of this fight buried on the undercard.
On the feet, Silva de Andrade gets a slight edge due to his power. But on the mat, Stamann's more dominant top game could stifle the best weapons of Silva de Andrade. Stamann uses twice the amount of ground control in his fights compared to Silva de Andrade. It may not be flashy, but I like Stamann in a grinder here.