Bellator MMA returns to action this weekend with its first fight card of the year as the promotion hosts Bellator 290 at Kia Forum in Los Angeles on Saturday (9 p.m. ET on CBS, with prelims at 6 p.m. ET on the Bellator and Showtime YouTube channels). The main event will feature MMA legend Fedor Emelianenko challenging reigning heavyweight champion Ryan Bader in a title fight rematch. After a long and successful run in the sport, Emelianenko announced this would be the last fight of his MMA career.
Bader, ranked No. 10 in ESPN's divisional rankings, successfully defended his title against Cheick Kongo in his last bout. Emelianenko, unranked by ESPN, earned a first-round TKO over Tim Johnson most recently.
In the co-main event, middleweight champion Johnny Eblen will go for his first title defense as he takes on Anatoly Tokov. Eblen, ranked No. 8, beat Gegard Mousasi by unanimous decision to claim the title last June. Tokov, unranked by ESPN, has been undefeated since joining Bellator in 2017.
Later that night, UFC heavyweight Derrick Lewis looks to get back in the win column as he faces Serghei Spivac at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas (1 a.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 10 p.m. on ESPN+).
Lewis, ranked No. 8 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is coming off back-to-back losses. Most recently, Lewis lost to Sergei Pavlovich by first-round knockout in July. Spivac is unranked in ESPN's rankings and has won two fights in a row via knockout.
Brett Okamoto spoke to MMA coach Din Thomas to get his perspective on the matchup in the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for the main events of both fight cards and other intriguing bets for this weekend.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
UFC heavyweights: Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac
Din Thomas, veteran MMA coach
How Lewis wins: This should be Lewis's return party. Stylistically, Spivac is a perfect matchup for him, and Lewis has a chance to win emphatically by knockout. This is an opportunity to show off the power he once had.
Lewis has made a career out of baiting guys into thinking he doesn't train hard and is bad on the ground. And if you just get him to the ground, it's going to be an easy night fight. But he's a lot savvier than that. His fight IQ is higher than you'd think. Spivac might be able to get him down, but he will not be able to hold him down. Eventually, Lewis is going to be on his feet, forcing Spivac to trade with him, and Spivac just is not a power puncher. He's not bad on the feet, but he's more of a tripper. He wants to lock up and trip you, but he doesn't have the power or the chin to deal with Lewis.
How Spivac wins: For Spivac to get it done, he's going to have to take Lewis down. If Lewis is overthinking about technique rather than just bulldozing his way up from the bottom and forcing Spivac to trade, Spivac has to take advantage of that.
X factor: Lewis' motivation and his training. When he was raw, he was extremely dangerous because he was fighting to his strengths. Sometimes, when a guy gets regimented in his training, he becomes a little tame and doesn't fight as well. Spivac can get this done if Lewis doesn't fight like himself and has lost steam.
Prediction: Lewis by knockout in three rounds.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Spivac to win (-230), under 3.5 rounds for parlays (-420), Spivac inside the distance (-165). Yet another Lewis main event, and somehow, nothing has changed. We're left with the same question of "will he or won't he" land a big shot. The UFC matchmakers did their part by finding a heavyweight who won't be much of a knockout threat on the feet, but Spivac's ground game is still the determining factor of the outcome.
Spivac's takedown attempt rate is twice the average, and his accuracy is well above average. Meanwhile, Lewis defends 55% of takedowns, slightly below average. And once on the ground, the control time metrics strongly favor Spivac. He spends more time controlling opponents than any fighter on the main card and can finish opponents with strikes or submissions.
Lewis always has a puncher's chance, but if Spivac gets past the power punches and uses the fence to take the fight to the mat, he'll likely be in control for the rest of the round. Shopping inside the distance makes Spivac a more affordable favorite.
Bellator heavyweight title: Ryan Bader vs. Fedor Emelianenko
Parker: Bader wins inside the distance (-280). With the heavyweight title on the line, and Fedor coming off of back-to-back knockout victories, I can see where the appeal could be in this matchup. In each of Emelianenko's last six fights, win or lose, the fight didn't make it past the first round. And I don't think it's going to go much longer than that in this fight, either. Unless Emelianenko lands a clean shot that Bader doesn't see coming, I expect Bader's speed and power to be the difference-maker.
Bellator middleweight title: Johnny Eblen vs. Anatoly Tokov
Parker: Eblen to win (-260). In his fight against Gegard Mousasi, Eblen used his wrestling to tire out Mousasi and dominate through all five rounds. I don't see this fight going much differently. Eblen has solid striking to set up his wrestling, and we've seen Tokov get tagged early in other fights and have to come back to win. Unless he is able to stop the takedowns of Eblen without getting tired, this should be a successful first title defense for the champ.
Best bets on the rest of the UFC card
UFC light heavyweight: Da-Un Jung vs. Devin Clark
Kuhn: Jung to win (-240). In a fight that should primarily take place on the feet, you have to like the striking advantages of Jung. He is younger, bigger and more accurate with his power striking. Clark still offers a threat, though. He is more likely to initiate contact on the fence and go for takedowns. But Jung's only been taken down once, and when on the mat has generally been in control. Assuming Jung keeps the fight standing, he's a deserving favorite on a card with limited options from a data perspective.
Parker: Over 1.5 rounds. Jung will have to be mindful of the takedown attempts and avoid being held against the cage by Clark. For Clark, he can't afford to stand and trade shots with Jung, as Jung has real knockout power. With Clark coming off of a loss, I fully expect him to go back to his wrestling and try to secure a victory by playing it safe.
UFC heavyweight: Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov
Kuhn: Over 1.5 rounds for parlays. The grappling credentials slightly favor Ivanov, but we haven't seen him rely on his ground game much. I expect a slow burn of a fight, with a couple of rounds that could be tossups. Both men have been relatively durable, so the lack of finishing potential points to a close decision.
UFC welterweight: Yusaku Kinoshita vs. Adam Fugitt
Parker: Fight does not go the distance (-180). Fugitt is pretty well-rounded, with four wins by knockout and three submission wins, so I expect him and Kinoshita to put on a show. But one of them won't make it to the end of the third round.
UFC flyweight: Tatsuro Taira vs. Jesus Aguilar
Parker: Fight does not go the distance (-200). With Taira having a 50% finish rate and Aguilar at 75%, I really like the odds for fight does not go the distance. Aguilar showed crafty grappling in his appearance on the contender series, but Taira has shown high-level skills against very good opponents in the UFC so far. Most likely, Taira will be the one to get a finish and you can get great odds if you take him by submission. However, for a slightly higher price, and to be safe, I would take this fight does not go the distance.