Nate Diaz returns to the Octagon, for what could be his last appearance in the UFC, when he takes on Khamzat Chimaev in the UFC 279 main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPNEWS/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. and early prelims on ESPN+ at 6 p.m.).
Diaz, an MMA legend who has 26 fights with the promotion, has earned a reputation for putting on a show in his fights. He is tied for the second-most fight night bonuses in the UFC with 15. He enters the fight coming off of back-to-back losses.
Chimaev, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's welterweight rankings, has won five fights in a row since making his UFC debut in 2020. His last bout ended in a unanimous decision win over Gilbert Burns in April.
Brett Okamoto spoke to UFC welterweight Belal Muhammad to get his perspective on the matchup. Muhammad is No. 6 in ESPN's divisional rankings. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz
Belal Muhammad, UFC welterweight
How Chimaev wins: Stick to the script -- come out fast and hard and use that explosiveness. Diaz is mostly a counter striker. He does badly against bigger, stronger guys. Even Leon Edwards, whom I wouldn't consider one of the biggest welterweights, used distance on the outside and took Diaz down whenever he wanted. If I'm Chimaev, I don't play the brawling game. I'd take him down right away. Diaz is one of those guys who will give up bad positions. So, I would get wrist control and try to finish Diaz on the mat with ground-and-pound.
Chimaev can't get in his own way. In his fight against Burns, his coaches were yelling at him because he was making it a brawl when he didn't need to. He's a lot bigger than Diaz and if he stays on the outside and uses his kicks -- Diaz doesn't check kicks -- and then takes him down, it will be an easy night for him.
How Diaz wins: He has to make it to the 9- or 10-minute mark by avoiding that early storm. We know Chimaev is going to come out like a rocket. Diaz has to protect himself and avoid bad positions. He and his brother Nick are so confident on the ground, we've seen them assume they can roll for something that's not there. It just puts them in really bad ground-and-pound positions. If and when the fight goes to the ground, Diaz has to try leglocks. I don't think a lot of these Russian guys are familiar with that. And Chimaev is so long and big, if Diaz is underneath him, he shouldn't play the guard or armbar game.
When Diaz is boxing, I know he's a counter striker but he needs to walk forward. When Chimaev fought Gerald Meerschaert, he showed he can walk his opponents to the fence and land power shots. Diaz has to take the center and if he gets taken down, hold on to Chimaev. Wear on him. Use those little techniques where he has to pull out his arms, pull out his head -- make him uncomfortable. Because every time Diaz makes him uncomfortable, he's also making Chimaev tired.
X-factor: The leglock game. Chimaev's coaches were yelling at him to go into Burns' guard, and that tells me he's very good and comfortable on the ground. You have to be, if you're going to go into Burns' guard. He's going to have answers to all of Diaz's guard questions, but a lot of people don't have answers to leglocks, because they don't see them all the time.
Prediction: Early finish for Chimaev. Diaz is going to allow himself to be taken down, and I just see Chimaev getting those Dagestani handcuffs on him, then unleashing nonstop ground-and-pound. But I hope not. I hope it's a dogfight, and that Diaz's last fight in the UFC goes five rounds. But matchup-wise, this is terrible for Diaz.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Fight does not go the distance (-650), or pass. Betting massive favorites straight up usually isn't worth the investment, especially when we have two fighters with such complicated profiles. Between the inactivity of Diaz and the lack of Octagon time of Chimaev, this matchup has more volatility than usual matchups.
Numerically, Chimaev is a deserving favorite. He has a nine-year youth advantage versus Diaz, and his metrics to date are impressive. Chimaev is far more powerful as a natural welterweight, and his wrestling has been dominant. But, neither his standup nor his grappling is invincible. He's exhibited very poor head strike defense, eating punches unnecessarily, and Diaz could be willingly taken down if it means he can work his dangerous submission game from guard.
Those are all reasons to pass on taking a side, unless you're looking for one more fighter to add to a multi-leg parlay. Instead, take an inside-the-distance approach, knowing that Chimaev could overwhelm Diaz late, Diaz could pull off a miracle submission or the doctor could intervene.
Parker: Chimaev by KO/TKO (-150). Diaz, who has fought at lightweight through most of his career, will be taking on a true welterweight in Chimaev. I have tried to find ways that Diaz could pull off a win and I just don't see it happening here. I believe Chimaev wants to make the biggest statement possible. Look for him to take the fight to the mat and unleash his ground-and-pound until the ref calls the fight.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Catchweight (180 pounds): Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Parker: Over 1.5 rounds (-186). Holland tends to start off slowly before he picks up the pace, as proven in his last fight against Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira. His opponent, Rodriguez, has never been finished. Both men have good cardio and durability, and have elite striking. The difference here might be the submission game of Holland, if he can get the fight to the canvas. I like the fight to go over 1.5 rounds, as I don't see either man getting a finish.
Women's bantamweight: Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson
Kuhn: Fight goes the distance (-175); small play on Chiasson by decision (+275). There's no question that Aldana is the superior technical striker. But Chiasson, who is young and durable, has the exact strengths needed to stifle Aldana.
Aldana doesn't threaten a ground attack. As long as the fight is in open water, she'll score better than Chiasson. But Chiasson likes to use the clinch to control her opponents and set up takedowns. If Chiasson can get the fight to the canvas, she could keep it there long enough to sway a round. There's some value on Chiasson for the decision upset, but bets on overs and distance props are a safer play.
Parker: Aldana to win (-180). Coming off a first-round TKO over Yana Kunitskaya, Aldana will be looking to make it two in a row. Aldana will have a major advantage in the striking department and could potentially get herself another finish if she can keep this fight standing and not be put on her back. Chiasson has one path to victory and that's to hold Aldana against the cage or take her down and grind out a decision. However, I just don't see that happening with the takedown defense and striking of Aldana.
Light heavyweight: Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cutelaba
Parker: Cutelaba to win (-220). Cutelaba, who is known as an aggressive striker, showed in his fight against Devin Clark that he can pace himself and fight with a high IQ. Against Ryan Spann, he was showing that same form again until he surprisingly got caught in a guillotine choke and lost. In this fight, I think Cutelaba can use his striking to set up his wrestling and put Walker on his back. As long as Cutelaba can avoid the power of Walker, I believe he gets it done here.
Heavyweight: Jake Collier vs. Chris Barnett
Kuhn: Collier to win (-420). Collier is the bigger, rangier and younger fighter, and his performance metrics also look superior, and were earned through experiences against tougher opponents.
Neither fighter attempts many takedowns. That leaves Collier to utilize better pace, accuracy and defense. The lone factor favoring the upset is Barnett's superior power. Collier becomes a parlay candidate on a chalky card.