One of UFC's rising stars returns to action this weekend as Khamzat Chimaev takes on Nate Diaz in the main event of UFC 279 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPNEWS/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. and early prelims on ESPN+ at 6 p.m.).
Chimaev (11-0), who is 5-0 since entering the UFC, is coming off his first fight to go the distance in the promotion, a unanimous decision win over Gilbert Burns in April.
Diaz (21-13), who will be making his first appearance in the Octagon this year, could be making his last appearance with the promotion. Diaz is tied for the third-most submission wins in the lightweight division.
Big questions abound regarding this fight. Why are these two even facing off at their respective places in their careers? Can Diaz muster up one more iconic performance before his contract expires? What's at stake for Chimaev if he can add a big-name win to his ledger?
Former UFC fighter and ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson answers those questions and breaks down the marquee matchup at UFC 279.
Why is this fight even happening?
When I see this fight, my first thought is: This fight makes absolutely no sense. Where Diaz is in his career, this fight does nothing for him. Based on his current relationship with the promotion, this is on brand for the UFC to book this fight.
Although he's had his run-ins with the promotion -- considering the accomplishments in his career and what he has done for the sport since 2007 -- he deserves better than to have this type of matchup in what will likely be his last appearance in the Octagon.
He is an absolute OG in this sport. If this was going to be his last fight with the promotion, they could have set him up with a much more balanced matchup.
When looking at this from UFC's perspective, this fight makes sense. The promotion is looking to build Chimaev's brand, and what better way than to do it with one of the biggest names in the sport? Diaz is the type of guy who won't back down from anyone. So why not give him the guy that nobody else in the division seems to want to fight?
Coming off a hard-fought win over Burns in his last fight, naturally, you would think the progression for Chimaev would be to fight another top contender in the division.
Why does Diaz have a chance?
Diaz made his MMA debut nearly 20 years ago, and the same style he displayed back in the early 2000s is the same style he fights with today. He's got an aggressive boxing game when fighting on the feet and when fights go to the canvas, he has a slick and versatile submission game. With so much time spent in the Octagon, he has faced fighters of every style and seen nearly everything a fighter could throw at him in the cage.
His focus on boxing means he can leave himself open to leg kicks, but he's as tough as they come. As we saw in the fight with Leon Edwards last year, even when he was losing most of that fight, Diaz showed with his late flurry in the fifth round that he's always in it. Despite the loss, Diaz again showed that he'd never back down.
His toughness could be his best attribute in this matchup with Chimaev. He's able to fight through tough positions and situations. He can take hits and keep coming forward, and he can continue fighting after being put in bad positions on the mat or knocked down. He always finds a way to make his punches land and do damage.
He's also going to have to rely on his cardio. His conditioning is off the charts. It's hard to fight highly athletic fighters who have the toughness to maintain their pace after facing adversity, but Diaz has that in him. I swear he has the worst cuts in each of his fights, but even those don't slow him down. He doesn't stop, and that's hard to find in fighters these days.
In my opinion, Diaz shouldn't be fighting at 170 pounds. I feel he's at his best when fighting at 155. He's had issues with fighters with a combination of high-level striking and power with aggressive forward pressure. He doesn't have the size or the power to compete with the true welterweights.
Why is Chimaev a heavy favorite?
Even though he's relatively new to the sport of MMA, Chimaev has been training in wrestling and grappling since he was 5 years old. He has won multiple Swedish freestyle wrestling championships, which shows in his fights.
When you watch him, Chimaev is all about putting pressure on his opponents and controlling them. He doesn't stop coming forward to create opportunities to use his incredible wrestling. Unlike other fighters with wrestling backgrounds, most of Chimaev's work doesn't come from shooting single-leg or double-leg takedowns. Instead, he closes the opponent's range to use his body locks to work fighters against the cage and do his work from there -- similar to the approach Khabib Nurmagomedov took in his fights.
On the feet, Chimaev is very sound defensively with his striking, but when he tries to force the issue, he tends to leave himself open to getting hit more. The fight with Burns felt like he was trying to force the pace for a knockout through the first two rounds. Chimaev was more patient in the final round and used his range and defense to create fewer openings for Burns to land strikes. That adjustment is what shifted the fight in his favor to me. Going into the third round, I felt that both fighters had each won one round.
Chimaev is enormous for the division with a lot of power in his hands, so if he can get past Diaz and keep fighting higher-ranked fighters, that could be a factor in future matchups -- particularly against the likes of Edwards, Colby Covington or Kamaru Usman.
What does this fight do for Chimaev?
Diaz's name value will elevate Chimaev's status in the eyes of the fans. This is easily his biggest matchup to date, even if it's not the most skilled opponent he has faced. A win over Diaz would put his name in a different conversation regarding the fan's perception of him.
But if you look at ESPN's divisional rankings, Diaz is currently unranked. I have a hard time with the idea that a win over Diaz, even if it's dominant, is enough to secure Chimaev a shot at the title in his next fight.
After this fight, I believe he needs to take on an opponent like Covington, who, like Burns, is a fighter with comparable skills as a striker and a wrestler. That matchup would provide a real test for Chimaev to prove he's ready to take on the champion if he wins.
Even if he were to lose to Covington, as long as the fight is competitive, it's hard to see that affecting his stock too negatively. If anything, it would prove he could hold his own against the top of the weight class.
Prediction
This fight is tailor-made for Chimaev. He is the exact type of fighter that gives Diaz the biggest challenge. Chimaev will be the more skilled fighter wherever the bout goes. As the better striker with more power in his hands, Chimaev can get a finish in this matchup. And the way he integrates that striking with his wrestling ability makes him a bad opponent for Diaz to face.
I don't see this fight going the distance, and I could see it ending similarly to Diaz's fight against Jorge Masvidal in 2019, where the fight ended in a doctor's stoppage. Diaz's toughness could be enough to keep him going in this matchup until either the referee or the doctor has seen enough to call the fight.