Kamaru Usman defends his welterweight title in the main event of UFC 278 against Leon Edwards in Vivint Arena on Saturday (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. and early prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 6 p.m.).
Edwards, No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is unbeaten in his last ten fights and will be looking to carry that momentum into this bout. His last appearance in the Octagon ended in a unanimous decision over Nate Diaz in 2021.
Usman is undefeated in the UFC since making his debut in 2015. He will be going for his sixth-straight title defense. This is a rematch of a fight between the two earlier in their careers, but both fighters have evolved greatly as fighters since then.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Syndicate MMA coach John Wood to get his perspective on the matchup in the main event. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
John Wood, Syndicate MMA
How Usman wins: Usman has shown that there are always multiple ways to win. He has power in his hands, his striking is improving and the threat of his wrestling really opens up striking opportunities for him. For Usman, I believe wrestling Edwards -- using his ground and pound and submissions -- is the most likely way he wins. But with the way he grinds on you and his pressure, the threat of a knockout is there. His boxing has improved under coach Trevor Wittman, and the guy has a gas tank.
How Edwards wins: It's very simple: Edwards has to stop the takedowns. And with that, he also has to be aware of Usman's striking power. Sprawl and brawl, basically. Defend those takedowns and hope you catch him between those exchanges. Usman has been hit and he has been hurt, but he recovers well. Edwards has to wait for that big opportunity to hurt him, and then when it comes, don't get overzealous and get taken down.
Another key is matching Usman's level changes. Usman feints those level changes and then blasts shots over the top. Edwards has to get low and not allow Usman to take him down, but also avoid getting caught by shots over the top.
X-Factor: The striking on either end. Edwards needs to catch Usman on the way out of those exchanges if he's going to beat him. But at the same time, Usman's power is there, and he's a threat to knock him out at any time.
Prediction: Usman to win. He finishes Edwards within four rounds.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Over 2.5 rounds (-345). It's been almost seven years since Usman and Edwards last met. Neither fighter has lost a fight since. It makes for a justifiable rematch, but one that will see Usman as an even bigger betting favorite than in their first bout. The numbers appear to support that price inflation.
On paper, both fighters are able to control pace from a distance, with excellent accuracy. But Usman will still be the longer, and more powerful striker, and one that has yet to be severely hurt despite having faced some hard-hitting opponents. However, it's the threat of Usman's ground game that is the real difference maker, which has been flawless even against other elite wrestlers in five-round fights. While Edwards's grappling stats are average on paper, that won't nearly be enough to survive rounds with Usman in top control.
Usman's price is steep, leaving little value at current odds. You can get slightly better odds for parlays that the fight goes over 2.5 rounds, banking on Edwards to survive a wrestling-heavy attack into later rounds.
Parker: Usman by decision (-120). In order to do what no one else in the UFC has been able to do, Edwards has to avoid wrestling with Usman and keep the fight standing where he has the advantage on the feet. That advantage in the striking department may be a small one, but any margin is necessary in order to potentially stop one of the greatest fighters of all time.
However, that game plan is easier said than done. Usman continues to get better each time we see him in the Octagon. Early in his career, he was purely a wrestler. Now he is as well-rounded as it gets, and his striking is as dangerous and precise as ever. Look for Usman to use his striking to set up his wrestling early on and control Edwards throughout the fight. Edwards has never been finished in his career, and I don't see that happening here either.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Middleweight: Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold
Kuhn: Rockhold to win (+290). There are lots of questions surrounding Rockhold this week. The former middleweight champion is just 1-3 since 2015, and he barely qualifies for quantitative analysis. But, despite having been knocked out by two very hard hitters in his last two outings, Rockhold still has a versatile combination of long-range striking and dangerous grappling that makes him a threat to any opponent.
Costa's head strike defense is way below average, and could make him vulnerable to Rockhold's kicks from a distance. And while Costa certainly won't be taking the fight to the ground, if it ends up there, Rockhold will have an even bigger advantage. At long odds, a remotivated Rockhold is worth a stab for the upset at a sizable return.
Parker: Costa by TKO (-160). Rockhold will be returning to the Octagon after an almost three-year layoff. He is getting an opponent which could possibly be the worst matchup stylistically for him on the entire roster: Costa. Rockhold has to either keep Costa at a distance or put him on his back early to neutralize his power. However, Costa has very good takedown defense and will be the stronger fighter of the two. Look for Costa to avoid the early takedown attempts from Rockhold and press forward with strikes and end the fight before the final horn sounds.
Bantamweight: Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Parker: Dvalishvili to win (-135). For Dvalishvili, Aldo holds the keys to the kingdom. If Dvalishvili can defeat the former champ in dominant fashion, he won't be too far from a championship opportunity. Dvalishvili is a smart fighter, with an endless gas tank allowing him to constantly shoot in for takedowns throughout the entire fight. Look for him to close the distance early and pressure Aldo right out of the gate. If he can get Aldo out of rhythm, push the pace, and force Aldo into a wrestling match then this should be another impressive win for the blue-chip prospect.
Lightweight: Leonardo Santos vs. Jared Gordon
Kuhn: Jared Gordon to win (-300). Even though Santos rode a lengthy win streak through age 40, you won't often find me backing a fighter over that age. For Santos, as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, it's strange that his striking metrics look way better than his ground stats. That's key here, since Gordon will use his wrestling early and often.
Assuming Gordon can close the distance and then stifle any submissions, his clinch control and top game could also sap the cardio of his 42-year-old opponent and hopefully diminish the threat of Santos' hands at the start of each round.
Women's Flyweight: Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young
Parker: Maverick by submission (+160). In what I consider the biggest lock (and I do not like using this term ever in betting), the question isn't will Maverick win this fight, it is going to be how she is going to win this fight. Maverick has not only fought way better competition, but she is the better fighter by leaps and bounds no matter where the fight goes. I expect Maverick to take the least path of resistance and take the fight to the floor and get the submission victory.