We're in for a striker's delight with the main event Saturday, featuring the UFC's ninth- and 10th-ranked featherweights. The rankings are as close as they come, the betting markets are basically split, and even their performance metrics are nearly identical.
The relative newcomer, Giga Chikadze, opened as the slight favorite, but the market has nudged the veteran, Edson Barboza, into the favorite position. The matchup could draw two-way action right up until fight time, so it's essentially a pick 'em.
Odds: Edson Barboza (-115) vs. Giga Chikadze (-105)
Stat per stat, this is one of the most even matchups I've seen. Neither fighter utilizes much of a ground game, but when they do, they've performed in very similar -- and underwhelming -- ways. It's unlikely to be the difference in this matchup. Instead, both have kept their fights mostly standing, clearly because striking is their best asset.
Both excel in offensive metrics with accurate hands, diverse attacks and knockout power that is well above average. Their defense is not elite, but overall, both are durable. Barboza tends to fight at a slightly busier pace, but Gigadze historically tends to outpace his opponents -- that's another wash.
The biggest difference is their mix of power, as Gigadze tends to utilize an abnormally high mix of power strikes, while Barboza uses an even mix of power strikes and jabs. Barboza will be more likely mixing levels with his strikes, but Gigadze is also capable of nasty body shots.
There's also an important difference in their career. Barboza, 35, is just two years the elder but has amassed 25 UFC appearances, many against the elite of the lightweight division, before only recently dropping to featherweight. He may not have ever fought for a title, but he's faced title-caliber opponents throughout a UFC career spanning over a decade. That's a sharp contrast to Chikadze's mere two-year, six-fight UFC career, which until recently was against relatively unknown opponents. All in all, Barboza has twice the MMA experience at a much more competitive level.
However, experience isn't always a good thing. Barboza has held up well, but cumulative damage can't always be spotted until it's too late. It's entirely possible that Chikadze has the elite striking necessary to go toe-to-toe with Barboza and succeed. Unfortunately, we have very little evidence to support that. Him beating a fading Cub Swanson in his last outing is insufficient reason for us to back Chikadze with confidence against a veteran striker.
On a purely numerical basis, the lean is toward Chikadze. But the confounding factors of Barboza's career against larger and better opponents forces us to back off taking a side confidently.
Pick: This is likely a pass unless there's significant betting line divergence, in which case take the underdog. An early finish is unlikely in this one.
Best Bets for the rest of the card:
Sam Alvey vs. Wellington Turman
Alvey and Turman will compete in a stylistic mismatch. Expect the 35-year-old Alvey to be head hunting, as he's accustomed to fighting in reverse with his sharp counters. The 25-year-old Turman will be looking to get the fight to the ground early and often, as he has a clear advantage on the mat.
Alvey explored light heavyweight, but for this fight he's returning to middleweight. Even with the drop, he may not be the stronger of the two in the cage. Plus the weight cut could cost him some cardio. If Turman can use the small cage at the Apex to force a clinch and grappling fight, he should have the upper hand.
There is plenty on the line in this bout beyond the purses. As both men are riding multifight losing streaks, their spots on the UFC roster are not secure. There's already lots of finishing potential here, and that is going to be supported further by the must-win dynamic.
Pick: Moneyline lean on Turman as the slight favorite. Consider a prop on Turman by submission at plus money, and fight does not go the distance to hedge against an Alvey upset KO.
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Makhmud Muradov
This fight offers tons of finishing potential. Both of these middleweights have finished the vast majority of their wins, but in entirely different ways. The kickboxing specialist Muradov will be the obvious knockout threat, while Meerschaert will be looking to close the distance for a submission.
Muradov is an enormous favorite, but this will be his first serious test of takedown defense.
Pick: Fight does not go the distance for parlays, and a small lottery ticket on Meerschaert by submission in the neighborhood of +500.
Raw data is provided by FightMetric. Reed Kuhn is the author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."