A welterweight grudge match years in the making will finally take place on Saturday when former champion Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington headline UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.
Woodley (19-5-1, 9-4-1 in the UFC) and Covington (15-2, 10-2 UFC) have accused one another of avoiding this matchup for years. The two used to be teammates at American Top Team in Coconut Creek, Florida, and trained together at Woodley's satellite facility in St. Louis in 2014. The relationship got off to a rocky start and has only worsened since.
In addition to the animosity, Saturday's main event carries heavy implications for both fighters. Woodley is trying to right the ship following back-to-back losses to Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns. Covington hasn't fought since he came up short in a title bid against Usman in December.
So who wins? ESPN asked several experts to break down the matchup and provide a prediction.
Jafari Vanier, BMF Ranch
Woodley says he's going to go out there and fight like he used to, where he goes after it. But we have yet to see that [in recent fights] -- whereas Covington, everything he says he's going to do, he's done. Whether it's push the pace or whatever, he's done it.
If Tyron comes out like he used to, his wrestling and power and speed are harder to prepare for. That makes a difference. He can explode into those big shots and have those split-second reactions that can end a fight.
It's hard to say what's been wrong with Tyron, because I'm not in the camp and there are a lot of variables that go into not pulling the trigger, but he's definitely changed over the years. Ever since he won the UFC belt, I feel like he tried to play it a little safe and started point fighting to keep the belt. And that's not only him -- a lot of guys do that. But we're a couple of fights removed from the belt and he's still doing the same thing. That's something they have to sit down as a group and figure out, because there's obviously a mental block there.
I was thinking Colby earlier on, but I'm gonna go with Woodley by decision.
Neil Magny, UFC welterweight
I would think the fight favors Covington because of the style. I think he'll beat up Tyron early, and that dictates how the rest of the fight plays out. Woodley has a tendency to slow down as rounds go on, whereas Covington has that style of offensive pressure and building as the fight goes on.
If Covington can get past Woodley's power early, and force him to clinch and wrestle, I think that will play in his favor, especially in a five-round fight. I think it's easier to avoid Woodley's right hand at this stage of his career, just because of how much he's abandoned his wrestling abilities and relies on that right hand. You don't have to worry about many offensive weapons coming from the left side. He's going to throw his leg kicks and the right hand, which makes it a little more predictable to avoid and set up the right-hand counters.
I think it's going to be a grueling fight. Covington will draw Woodley into a dogfight and win a decision.
Geoff Neal, UFC welterweight
This is a tough one to predict because it all depends on which Woodley comes to fight. If Woodley is aggressive, I think he can take Colby out, because Woodley has a lot of power. But if he fights like he has the past two fights, Colby will edge out a win.
Woodley's striking is good, but lately he's been fighting off his back foot -- so anyone who fights him gets to do whatever they want to do. I hope he doesn't come into the fight timid, like he has been. I don't know what that's like. I don't understand it. Maybe something happened in training, he got hit in training or something. Sometimes it looks like he doesn't want to fight anymore. He's just in there to be there. He's playing defense the whole time.
If Colby tries to take him down, I don't see that happening. He doesn't have much power in his hands, so if Woodley would stand in the pocket and look for a counter, I think he could knock [Covington] out. But even though Colby doesn't have a lot of power, everything else is A1. His cardio is good. His wrestling is good. His striking is not the best, but it gets the job done.
I see Colby winning. I don't see Tyron coming out of that place he's been in. I think he'll come out and look the way he has his past two fights.
Michael Chiesa, UFC welterweight
Look, the general population wants Colby Covington to lose this fight, that's just the truth. But you've got to put your bias aside, and from a stylistic standpoint, in order to beat Colby Covington, it's going to take a very hard training camp. That's the type of fight where you do have to train cardio, because you know he's going to push the pace, wrestle you, take you down at some point. You're going to have to get up off the fence and up from bottom. And those are the hardest camps.
I know Tyron trains hard -- he was the champion for a reason -- but he never had to train like you have to for Colby. And I don't know if he's in a stage of his career where he's in the right mode to have that type of camp. It takes more than aggression -- it takes a very hard training camp. You're not going to beat Colby Covington in a regular camp, when you're used to having the better wrestling and knocking people out.
Everyone knows Colby has good cardio in fights, but something they might not know is he actually had a reputation for this in college. His wrestling coach at Oregon State was brothers with my high school coach, and he would always talk about this Colby Covington guy who has a third lung and never gets tired. He's just a hard guy to train for.
I'm gonna go with the safe bet and take Colby, even though I really don't want him to win. But you never know with a guy like Tyron Woodley. He's very athletically gifted. If anyone can fight at a later age, it's Tyron Woodley.