Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley isn't just another UFC Fight Night main event. It's a bout between top welterweight contenders that is complete with a long history and plenty of bad blood.
Woodley is the former UFC welterweight champion who went on a run of four title defenses that spurred many to put him in the GOAT conversation in the weight class. However, since his title loss in March 2019 to Kamaru Usman, he hasn't been the same.
In his first bout since that loss, Woodley looked to rebound against the rising and now title-contending Gilbert Burns, but for the second fight in a row, Woodley was outclassed and had no offense to stop his foe.
Gone were Woodley's powerful punches and strategic wrestling. Instead, he stayed upright as best he could and continued to find himself with his back to the cage and nowhere to go. It was a recipe for disaster, and it resulted in a unanimous decision loss.
On the other side of the Octagon this weekend is Covington, who put forth a tremendous effort against Usman, ultimately getting TKO'd in the final minutes of the fifth round. Prior to that bout, Covington was as dominant a fighter as anyone on the roster, winning his previous seven fights against top competition and at one point winning the interim welterweight strap. The trash-talking wrestler has much to back up on Saturday and is a heavy favorite to do just that (-360).
ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez examines the welterweight fight and what each fighter must do to leave the Octagon as the winner.
The big picture
When you're on top, people start altering their styles to beat the champion. It's a gradual progression of the fight game.
I think people have adapted to Woodley's style, and now he needs to reinvent himself and make some serious adjustments. Those adjustments are not what he was doing the past two fights, and he needs to be ready to make them.
The Woodley that we've known has played the outside and the edges of the Octagon very well. He lured opponents into his power hand -- his power straight punch. But I think the jig is up. People know his plan. His opponents have recently been smothering him against the cage, pressuring him with punches and mixing up the offensive flurries with takedowns, having seen that that's the way to beat him. Don't let him dictate that pace.
Now Woodley faces Covington, whose pressure will clearly be Woodley's biggest challenge. Covington is a fighter with ridiculous cardio, the aforementioned pressure and solid striking. His striking is so good because he has the guts to exchange punches before he pressures with the takedown.
Has Tyron reinvented himself? Has he made some adjustments? That's the question.
Is Woodley ready to turn it around?
Colby Covington speaks with Ariel Helwani about his decision to leave American Top Team, pointing to the issues he had with Jorge Masvidal, Dustin Poirier and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
After you've been a warrior who has been on top, fighting 25 minutes over and over, your body has absorbed a lot of damage, and it isn't as easy anymore to summon the "beast." Can he summon the beast that he has always had but now is having trouble bringing out because life has become a little bit better since he has been a champion?
I believe Woodley has the capability to be successful with his strategy of neutralizing the takedown and landing big strikes, but there are still so many questions. Will he lie against the cage or sprawl, circle back to the center of the Octagon and use all that room to strike and counter? Is he going to meet Covington head-on when he presses forward? Or is he going to step back like he did against Usman and Burns, trying to absorb their energy as he's up against the cage?
To me, it's all about the drive in him. Does he have the drive to do these things? He gets cozy just sitting back and waiting -- that game plan had worked so well, for so long -- but when nobody gives him that room and when his opponents are keeping the pressure up the whole time, it doesn't work out.
How will Colby's training go without being at ATT?
You never know until you see the fight. If he looks fantastic and wins, great change! If he doesn't perform, then you question the work ethic and the training camp. That said, I know Covington is capable of training his butt off, and I believe he can be prepared without ATT.
How can Covington win?
Punches in bunches. Covington needs to let his hands and kicks go. Standing in his southpaw position, he should be able to attempt his big left kick to the head.
When he gets into exchanges, Covington throws in big flurries, and as soon as Woodley is caught up in that moment, Covington is going to shoot. He's going to drive with that pressure. Sometimes it won't be the prettiest, just like we saw in his fight with Robbie Lawler, but Covington won't stop until he gets the takedown. Once he gets Woodley to the ground, the pressure won't stop, and if Woodley tries to stand up, Covington is going to throw his hook and knock him down. He doesn't have the most finesse, but it's his pressure and strength that get it done.
Covington showed some fantastic striking with Usman -- they must've had some gentlemen's agreement to stand and throw instead of wrestling -- and we saw him stand there and exhibit some toughness, showing that he can take a hit and get back up. He has a lot more gas in the tank and a lot less mileage than Woodley.
In this fight, we have two wrestlers again, but things are different. Usman and Covington are both pressure wrestlers: They rush you and press you against the cage. Woodley is not that type of wrestler. He sits back and looks to counter with his wrestling. We could see more exchanges and some more striking from Covington, but if that isn't working, he'll transition to wrestling.
The smaller cage is also an advantage to Covington. He wants to push forward with strikes and pressure wrestling, and it's going to be fewer steps to get Woodley's back to that cage.
How can Woodley win?
Keeping his back off the cage and staying in the center of the Octagon. He knows the pressure is coming and understands that he needs to not only neutralize the takedown but also switch his back against the fence to Covington's back against the fence. He should try to work his takedowns -- make some space for a shot -- land some flurries of his own and backstep to stay in the center of the Octagon, where he can counter away and time Colby walking straight into a punch.
It has been more of a challenge lately for Woodley to put his offensive wrestling together. He hasn't been the same in that regard, as he's focused on countering as a whole, but he does have the capability to neutralize the takedown and keep it on the feet.
Most importantly, Woodley needs to let go of his punches. He needs to be throwing straights and uppercuts. He hasn't been doing that.
If he's scared of getting taken down, he needs to turn those straights into uppercuts. Fire 'em away, and keep the fight in the center of the Octagon. If he keeps his back against the cage, he can't do this. He can't fire off the counter.
X factor:
Woodley: Desire. The true desire to be in a fight, battle and win. Is it going to be the beast who shows up? We'll notice right away, just like we noticed right away in the Burns fight just what Woodley was in that Octagon. Will it be a Woodley who's going to plant his heels and fight, or is it a Woodley who is going to sit there and let you outwork him? The mindset of Woodley is huge.
Covington: Pressure. His pressure is second to none right now, and if he brings that, it's going to be very hard for Woodley -- or anyone -- to deal with.
Prediction
Woodley is a fantastic, amazing fighter, capable of turning a fight around and winning at any moment, but I don't know if he has what it takes right now. Covington gets the job done on Saturday.