Derrick Lewis vs. Aleksei Oleinik is the classic striker versus grappler matchup. Lewis has huge power with 18 KO/TKOs among his 23 career wins. Oleinik, meanwhile, is one of the greatest heavyweight submission artists ever -- 46 submission finishes in 59 victories.
Conventional wisdom says the grappler usually has the advantage in these types of stylistic clashes, since the grappler can typically dictate where the fight ends up. And Lewis is not the most technical athlete on the ground.
However, Lewis has been submitted only once in his career -- against former UFC double-champion Daniel Cormier, a former Olympic wrestler. That's important to note going into Saturday's UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik main event in Las Vegas, according to Fortis MMA head coach Sayif Saud.
"You can't take a page out of DC's book when you don't have that Olympic-level wrestling," Saud said. "He's the only one that's been able to take Lewis down and grind him out. Historically, every other person who's tried to do that to Lewis -- even people who were super accomplished -- has not been able to do it."
Lewis vs. Oleinik has major significance in the division. ESPN has Lewis ranked No. 6 at heavyweight. Lewis (23-7, 1 NC; 14-5 in the UFC) has won two straight and five of his past seven. Oleinik (59-13-1, 8-4 UFC) has also won two straight, both this year, when he became the first UFC fighter to compete and win across four decades (1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s). The winner could be headed toward a title contender bout.
So, what will prevail? Lewis' one-punch knockout power or Oleinik's uncanny ability to snag a submission? ESPN asked top experts from the MMA world, including coaches who have cornered against each man, to break down the UFC heavyweight headliner.
Javier Mendez, American Kickboxing Academy head coach
I think Derrick Lewis wins. The problem with Derrick is if he gets taken to the ground, oh boy, he's in trouble. Oleinik is not an expert at taking [the fight] to the ground. Fabricio Werdum is a submission guy who doesn't have a traditional wrestling background, but he is good at getting guys down there. He has incredible tenacity to him. Oleinik just doesn't have that. But if it does go to the ground, I have Aleksei.
On the standup, if Lewis paces himself, keeps his distance and works that magical power, [it could] be a short night for Aleksei. I think the smaller cage will help Aleksei, definitely. I had a conversation with some guys who are more grappling based and they told me that a smaller cage does make it easier for grapplers.
Derrick, when he's on -- watch out. He fights everybody. He don't back down from nobody. You can't talk s--- about that man. He's a real fighter. Derrick fought my fighter Daniel Cormier on short notice at Madison Square Garden [a second-round submission loss in 2018]. That guy gets down and out in energy, and he's still trying to swing for the fences and knock your a-- out. That's a real G right there.
Brandon Gibson, JacksonWink MMA striking coach
Aleksei is such a sniper, right? Submission expert. I thought he looked strong against Werdum. He beat Maurice Greene. Before that, he had back-to-back TKO losses against Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem. I think Derrick Lewis had a tough fight against Ilir Latifi. He won, but that fight was close and there was a lot of time spent on the fence. Lewis wasn't really able to find his range and get off.
I think in this upcoming fight, Lewis is gonna have more opportunity to find a shot. With the exception of the Daniel Cormier fight, Lewis has been able to recover in some of these defensive scrambles where he's at risk for submission. I think Lewis is gonna be able to find his power shot. I think it's gonna be a good heavyweight scrap, but I think Lewis' speed, footwork and pressure is going to lead to a knockout victory.
I don't think Aleksei has the strength to grind Lewis on the fence or hold him down on the ground. [Oleinik] is very slick. He's the king of the Ezekiel choke. He's very clever with a lot of his submissions and setups. And he has so much experience. But I just think Lewis has that God-gifted power. He has a chin. He's able to take shots from some of the best. He's able to get off the fence and get off his back when he needs to. I think he'll put himself in position to land the shot.
In the smaller cage, the percentage of finishes is much higher. I actually think the smaller cage favors the striker in this case. I think Lewis is going to be able to pressure and cut him off and find his big shots.
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
In the small cage, I think Oleinik would probably have the advantage trying to work his ground game. Derrick has done a good job over the years about kind of shoring that up. I cornered against Derrick with Roy Nelson a few years ago. You really have to get body to body with Derrick to score a takedown. Any sort of inside-outside trip is there.
Aesthetically, Derrick is very hard to hold down. A lot of guys want to go mount. Well, mount against a big guy like Derrick, who has that big-a-- belly, you're not gonna have your knees on the ground. There's nothing to anchor you down. I would always suggest top-side half guard, where you can hold the bottom leg down. That, I think, would serve Oleinik good. Oleinik is tricky, man. He's got some weird s--- from any submission.
I think Derrick has a tendency of circling too much and giving his back to the cage. That's what he did against Roy when we closed distance. Derrick is really gonna have to utilize, he has a really good switch kick. I don't think he has the gas tank to throw a whole lot throughout the fight. But he has one good one for you once in a while. I'd use that big head kick to get range and try to stay at distance as much as possible.
Oleinik is a guy who finishes most of those fights with that Ezekiel choke. Again, I don't think I would go mount with Derrick because his belly is so big. I might be wrong. Derrick is not easy to submit by any means. The way to submit him is gassing him out and the choke suddenly appears.
But I would think, in that fight, I would go with Derrick. Derrick, you just can't put the dude away, man. He's always in the fight, and somehow, some way he always pulls it out and knocks somebody out down the line. I would go with Derrick in that fight. I think he would win by KO.
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA head coach
I think when you look at all the jiu-jitsu specialists that have fought Derrick Lewis, all these guys that just think they're gonna take him down and submit him -- nobody can do it. He's just too strong. He's proven over and over again how easy it is for him to get up and how durable he is. He just gets up. I think Oleinik, being a bit older and not the biggest heavyweight, I think he's gonna have a problem with that size and strength.
Sure, if he gets him down to the ground, can he catch him in something? No doubt. I think physically Derrick is so much stronger and punches a lot harder. And I think that size and that strength and Derrick's ability to get up -- and how he's shown that over and over again -- has to be taken into consideration.
I think Lewis finishes. Now, he could go out and lay a goose egg like he did against Francis Ngannou. That was f---ing weird. Barring some strange type of fight, I see Derrick catching [Oleinik] at some point in the late rounds. The small cage could be an advantage for Oleinik, but it's also less room for Oleinik to run away, too, when Derrick starts hitting him.