Just as the MLB playoff races have entered the home stretch, so too has the positioning for baseball's postseason awards. Though the leading candidates have been firmly established, and some races seem more settled than others, nothing is set in stone.
With that in mind, I offer up the last Awards Watch of the 2024 season with a twist: The awards are ordered based on which ones most depend on these final three weeks.
The first award listed -- the red-hot National League Rookie of the Year race -- has the most down-the-stretch drama. Conversely, the last award is the most fixed -- but even there, I'm not giving up on some drama arising before we reach October.
I've added the current odds from ESPN BET, paring those with an implied probability percentage based on those odds -- but the ordering of the awards is my take on them, not a straight reflection of the odds.
Here's how all the award races stand as they go down to the wire.
Rookie of the Year
National League
Front-runner: Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres (127.6 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (127.5); 3. Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers (121.8); 4. Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals (119.7); 5. Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs (117.4); 6. Tyler Fitzgerald, San Francisco Giants (116.0); 7. Jacob Young, Washington Nationals (114.9); 8. Michael Busch, Cubs (113.4); 9. Bryan Hudson, Brewers (111.8); 10. Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers (111.7).
ESPN BET favorite: Merrill (-1000, 90.9%)
Leader trend: Since our last Awards Watch, Merrill's overall AXE rating has improved from 71st to 23rd, enough of a leap to vault him into the top 10 of an even bigger awards category below. During that span, Merrill has a .999 OPS and ranks second among all hitters in win probability added. Just as crucial, he has done all of this for a Padres team that has spent most of the second half climbing the ladder in the NL's pecking order. These things are not a coincidence.
Biggest mover: That 48-place leap by Merrill in overall AXE? One NL rookie has beaten that -- Chourio, who has climbed from 94th to 39th. And whereas Merrill ranks second in win probability added among hitters since the last Awards Watch, Chourio ranks fourth.
Keep an eye on: Skenes has been the front-runner for this honor for most of the summer, and he hasn't done anything to lose that status -- it's just that Merrill has come on like gangbusters. Skenes' workload so far hasn't been pared back, though his innings totals have dipped a little because he has been somewhat less efficient. Assuming the Pirates don't shut down Skenes, this will be a great, three-way race among the leaders of a very strong rookie class.
American League
Front-runner: Austin Wells, New York Yankees (115.7 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox (115.4); 3. Luis Gil, Yankees (115.4); 4. Cade Smith, Cleveland Guardians (114.1); 5. Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics (113.3); 6. Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins (111.1); 7. Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles (110.3); 8. David Hamilton, Red Sox (109.6); 9. Ben Joyce, Los Angeles Angels (107.2); 10. Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers (106.9).
ESPN BET favorite: Cowser (-275, 73.3%)
Leader trend: The betting markets have tabbed Cowser as the favorite for a few weeks now, though the metrics that feed the AXE algorithm have never agreed with that assessment. You can understand it, though, because this race has never had a clear front-runner at any point. Cowser has had an excellent season. He has played a lot and he has done so for a team angling for a No. 1 seed. Regardless of what the metrics say, it's hard to envision who might distinguish themselves from Cowser at this point. A monster September from Wells or Gil, who was just reinstated from the injured list, could swing things. This is the one category in which AXE currently disagrees with ESPN BET.
Biggest mover: There hasn't been much movement among the leaders, and where there have been notable spikes, it has been at the bottom of the top 10. Joyce (306th in overall to 236th) and Langford (359th to 242nd) have both been ascending, but it seems unlikely either could reach the front-runner perch by the end of the season.
Keep an eye on: Gil is slated to start for the Yankees this weekend against the Cubs, who feature one of baseball's hottest offenses. Clarke Schmidt is also scheduled to rejoin the rotation at Wrigley Field. At that point, assuming the cramping issue that forced Gerrit Cole out of his last start doesn't linger, the Yankees will have six starters and no closer. In other words, keep an eye on that entire pitching staff.
Manager of the Year
Note: ESPN BET does not publish odds on Manager of the Year awards
American League
Front-runner: Matt Quatraro, Kansas City Royals (106.2 EARL)
Next four: 2. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.0); 3. Mark Kotsay, Athletics (104.2); 4. Rocco Baldelli, Twins (101.3); 5. Brandon Hyde, Orioles (101.3).
Overview: Quatraro and Vogt have volleyed for the top spot in this race all season and it's anyone's guess how this will play out. Obviously, Quatraro wasn't helped by the Royals' recent slump but, for now, Kansas City remains in a firm playoff position. For what it's worth, Kansas City took the season series from Cleveland 8-5. Kotsay won't win the award, but the job he has done with Oakland this season has not received enough attention.
National League
Front-runner: 1. Dave Martinez, Nationals (106.9 EARL)
Next four: 2. Pat Murphy, Brewers (106.1); 3. Mike Shildt, Padres (106.0); 4. Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies (105.6); 5. Carlos Mendoza, New York Mets (104.2).
Overview: Martinez has been the EARL leader for months now, and at no point have I ever thought he'd win this award. It's not so much that I don't buy into the job Martinez has done this season with the improving Nationals. It's more that there are some really good candidates on better teams. I feel like EARL has narrowed it down well and I suspect Murphy is the favorite. I've been toying with a season trajectory measurement to reward managers whose teams have surged later in a season, a description that fits both Shildt and Mendoza. If that is a meaningful factor to voters, as I suspect, Shildt might be the real favorite, but if the Mets earn their way into the playoffs, Mendoza will have plenty of support.
Most Valuable Player
National League
Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (148.6 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Francisco Lindor, Mets (145.0); 3. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (137.6); 4. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (130.9); 5. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (130.9); 6. Matt Chapman, Giants (129.8); 7. Mookie Betts, Dodgers (128.1); 8. Jackson Merrill, Padres (127.6); 9. Jurickson Profar, Padres (126.9); 10. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (125.5).
ESPN BET favorite: Ohtani (-2000, 95.2%)
Leader trend: I don't need to remind you what Ohtani has been doing. Remember, AXE is based on value metrics -- the different versions of WAR, win probability added and championship probability added. It doesn't even consider the staggering narrative influence that baseball's first 50/50 season will have. Though the metrics have Lindor within range of catching Ohtani, in reality only an injury or a major slump is going to keep Ohtani from becoming a two-league MVP.
Biggest mover: The five highest AXE scores are in the American League, so Othani's NL-leading figure ranks sixth overall. Lindor is seventh, up from eighth on Aug. 8. But while that isn't much of a climb, he has closed the gap in AXE from 10 points to the current 3.6. Though a 50/50 showing from Ohtani will be awfully tough to beat, one thing working in Lindor's favor is the Mets' playoff chase. The context does, and should, matter. That's especially true if the other indicators don't create separation. With a big finish that pushes New York into October, Lindor can rack up across-the-board value in more ways -- including championship probability -- than Ohtani, simply because the Dodgers' race is more about securing a first-round bye than getting into the bracket.
Keep an eye on: Marcell Ozuna. He has a shot at a Triple Crown, though it's a long one that would depend upon a homer spree on his part that coincided with something going wrong for Ohtani. Still, not only is Ozuna an afterthought by AXE and in the betting markets, but he's also not even in line to be the best DH in the National League.
American League
Front-runner: Aaron Judge, Yankees (166.3 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (165.2); 3. Juan Soto, Yankees (155.0); 4. Jarren Duran, Red Sox (151.0); 5. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (149.0); 6. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (134.2); 7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (133.5); 8. Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (132.8); 9. Corey Seager, Rangers (132.7); 10. Brent Rooker, Athletics (129.1).
ESPN BET favorite: Judge (-3500, 97.2%)
Leader trend: The ESPN BET line, and the implied probability that goes with it, matches up with my perception of how most observers see the AL MVP race. Basically, it's this: Judge has a hammerlock on the honor. Look, there is no way to nitpick what Judge has done, but I feel as if he still has some work to do. Judge is having a historic season but so is Witt -- and it's also historic the AL's top five is around five standard deviations or better than the average MLB player. That just rarely happens. Judge was first on Aug. 8, our last watch, at 162.6, and Witt was at 161.6. So, he has in fact increased his edge -- but not by much.
Biggest mover: The movers have been Guerrero (21st to 12th) and Alvarez (32nd to 13th), two established all-around bashers who have been lighting up the scoreboard over the last month. In the AXE system, I tend to view any score of 130 or better to be MVP worthy (or Cy Young worthy) and both players clear that bar. They've just picked the wrong year to do it.
Keep an eye on: What makes the race between Judge and Witt so fascinating is how different they are in the ways they create value. Witt needs a huge finish to make this a real-world debate, but we've seen him go on heaters that last weeks at a time. If he does this now, and picks up a Royals offense that has been sagging without Vinnie Pasquantino, AXE might well anoint him. Two things to keep in mind. Judge has huge edges in homers (51 to 30) and RBIs (124 to 97). If you adjust for park, the homer gap is less (47.2 to 35, per Statcast). And the RBIs: Judge has hit with 107 more runners on base than Witt has this season. Witt's RBI% (22.0) is the second highest in baseball, behind Pasquantino (22.9). Judge's RBI% is 17.7, still way above average (13.9), but well short of Witt.
Cy Young
National League
Front-runner: Chris Sale, Braves (140.6 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (132.7); 3. Hunter Greene, Reds (129.3); 4. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (127.5); 5. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves (127.2); 6. Logan Webb, Giants (122.3); 7. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (121.1); 8. Dylan Cease, Padres (120.9); 9. Michael King, Padres (120.3); 10. Raisel Iglesias, Braves (120.2).
ESPN BET favorite: Sale (-1200, 92.3%)
Leader trend: Sale was a hair behind Greene last time out (131 to 130.9) but has been even hotter since then, while Greene's candidacy has gone by the wayside because of an elbow malady about which the Reds will be hyper-cautious. For everyone on this leaderboard, the problem is Sale is on one of those runs where you just don't expect him to give up anything. Since surrendering eight runs to Oakland on June 1, Sale has gone 8-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.64 FIP. He's on track to win a pitching Triple Crown and record his first 20-win season. On top of that, with the Braves battling for a playoff spot, every time Sale pitches it's a high-stakes game.
Biggest mover: As good as Skenes and Lopez have been, Wheeler has emerged as the biggest challenger to a Sale runaway. Metronome-like in his consistency, Wheeler went at least six innings during his six outings in August, recording a 1.62 ERA. Whereas Sale is enjoying a resounding bounce-back from a string of injury seasons, Wheeler has been elite all along. According to the Bill James formula for ranking the game's top starters, Wheeler has had a lock on the No. 1 spot all season. That's based on multiple seasons of data, though, and the Cy Young Award will only consider this one.
Keep an eye on: It's Sale with a big lead going around the last turn with Wheeler in pursuit and everyone else back in the pack. As good as Skenes and Lopez have been, they just aren't going to be able to match Sale and Wheeler in combining quantity and quality.
American League
Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (136.3 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Seth Lugo, Royals (128.9); 3. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians (126.4); 4. Cole Ragans, Royals (124.0); 5. Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox (123.3); 6. Framber Valdez, Astros (121.4); 7. Tanner Houck, Red Sox (120.3); 8. Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (119.8); 9. Brady Singer, Royals (118.1); 10. Kirby Yates, Rangers (116.5).
ESPN BET favorite: Skubal (-10000, 99.0%)
Leader trend: The betting market sees this race as all but over, and you can understand why. Like Sale, Skubal is on target to win a pitching Triple Crown while recording his first 20-win season. With Lugo falling off a bit, only a collapse by Skubal can change this outlook. Speaking of Triple Crowns, have you noticed that it's not impossible that we get two hitting Triple Crowns and two pitching Triple Crowns in the same season? Very unlikely, but simply that the possibility looms makes it something to watch.
Biggest mover: Valdez's overall AXE has leaped from 114th to 43rd since our last Watch, as he leads a smoking-hot Astros rotation. Since the beginning of July, Valdez has gone 7-1 with a 2.22 ERA over 10 starts. If something goes awry with Skubal, Valdez and Lugo might be best positioned to fill his spot. Unless ...
Keep an eye on: Because of the win probability component, AXE gives more of a break to elite relievers than other metrics, and that's on purpose, as the weighting of the factors is based on how the formula correlates to the actual standings. And, if you haven't noticed, relief pitching is kind of important. Still, it's unusual for a reliever to climb near the top of the Cy Young leaderboard, so let's take a moment to honor the remarkable season Clase is enjoying. He already has logged more than 40 saves and is on track to lead the AL for the third straight season. His ERA is a meager 0.70. And that aforementioned win probability component? Clase (5.5 WPA) not only leads all pitchers, but it's also not even close. Second in the AL is Skubal -- at 3.7.