Overrated and underrated. Taken together, they might be the most abused words in the English language. That's especially true when it comes to sports.
The terms are used every day, by the media and fans alike. Rarely, if ever, do we pause to consider what they actually mean.
Who is doing the rating? What is the basis for those ratings?
This problem came to mind recently when a colleague texted me about another sparkling performance from Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte. This person declared Marte "the most underrated star in baseball right now."
Really? Again: Who is doing the rating? What is the basis for those ratings?
So, here we are.
We can rate the players on performance, no problem. But what is the perception of those performances? How do we measure that? If we performed scientific polls of, say, media, players, scouts, executives and fans, maybe we'd be getting somewhere. To my knowledge, this polling data doesn't exist. Likewise, maybe you could look at things such as merchandise sales or web searches, but even if you could find that information in a comprehensive form, you'd run into the muddy problem of sorting popularity and/or market exposure away from performance evaluation.
What we're left with are two forms of voting that are more or less designed to be evaluative: All-Star balloting and postseason awards balloting. These aren't perfect, either, but it's what we have.
As it turns out, Marte isn't the most underrated star in baseball. He is underrated; it's just that other players are underrated more.
Using a brand-new method explained below, here are MLB's 10 most underrated players (and how Marte stacks up against them) and its five most overrated players.
Ten who are underrated
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs: 106 disparity points
Performance rank: 49th; Support rank: 155th
Happ made the National League All-Star team during his 4.2 bWAR season in 2022, but otherwise has been largely overlooked in the midseason balloting. He also hasn't earned any downballot MVP support and really hasn't quite deserved it. Happ has been more consistently good than outstanding over his career and perhaps that has led to him being taken for granted. He has won a couple of Gold Gloves, so somebody somewhere knows Happ exists.
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates: 100 disparity points
Performance rank: 34th; Support rank: 134th
This is one where it might simply be a case of life on the Pirates. The current season is typical in that Reynolds has been terrific (129 OPS+) but did not finish among the top 20 NL outfielders in the fan balloting. He did make his way onto the NL squad in the non-fan phase of the process. He has been an All-Star-level player for quite a while now.
J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners: 92 disparity points
Performance rank: 43rd; Support rank: 135th
Crawford's 2024 season is a poor one on which to claim underrated status, so this is more based on the previous three seasons of being overlooked. From 2021 to 2023, only Bo Bichette and Carlos Correa compiled more bWAR than Crawford (11.6) among American League shortstops. Yet Crawford finished no better than sixth in the fan balloting in any of those seasons. He did earn some downballot MVP support for his 5.1 bWAR season in 2023.
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets: 88 disparity points
Performance rank: 27th; Support rank: 115th
It's hard to understand how a Met could be persistently underrated, but I vehemently feel this is the case for Nimmo. Two years in a row, when compiling the list of the most overlooked players on the final All-Star roster, Nimmo has jumped out as one of the NL's biggest oversights. Even in 2024, when he's having a down season by batting average, Nimmo is on target to hit around 3.0 bWAR because he does so many things well.
Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres: 66 disparity points
Performance rank: 37th; Support rank: 103rd
Another player on the underrated list having a down season, Kim typifies a kind of player who gets persistently overlooked. Basically, it's the type of player who creates a disproportionate amount of his value in categories other than hitting. Kim has been above average at the plate in a couple of his big league seasons, but where he shines is in the field and on the bases. He has put up 15.3 bWAR since 2021 but has yet to appear in his first All-Star Game.
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Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks: 65 disparity points
Performance rank: 47th; Support rank: 112th
Walker has won two Gold Gloves but, now 33, still hasn't played in an All-Star Game. He's a late bloomer and that might hold back enthusiasm over his play. Through age 29, Walker had 42 career homers and 3.2 bWAR. Since then, he has hit 102 bombs and put up 11.9 bWAR.
Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs: 57 disparity points
Performance rank: 42nd; Support rank: 99th
Hoerner doesn't hit for a lot of power by the standards of a 2020s regular, but he hits for average (adjusted for league context), plays the middle of the infield at a Gold Glove level (he has won one) and is one of the game's best baserunners. Hoerner is a standout on the high-profile Cubs with two seasons of four or more bWAR under his belt, yet he has never made an All-Star team.
Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays: 45 disparity points
Performance rank: 36th; Support rank: 81st
For his career, Varsho has produced minus-11 runs at the plate, per the Baseball Reference WAR methodology, but is plus-76 in the field. You can see how someone producing so much value with the glove, and only the glove, can be forgotten. There is also the sheer scale of some of his defensive metrics. His plus-29 DRS in 2023 was surreal; he's already at plus-27 in 2024 with six weeks to go. If people had absolute trust in those metrics, Varsho would get a lot more recognition.
Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers: 45 disparity points
Performance rank: 33rd; Support rank: 78th
Adames is a consistent performer, a veritable rock on a consistently contending team and arguably the heart of the Milwaukee clubhouse. He's also a high-strikeout, low-average hitter who even in 2024 tends to get overlooked. He's a steady-to-spectacular glove man at the most premium position on the field and has hit 96 homers at that spot over the past four years, while posting 13.8 bWAR. For all that: zero All-Star appearances.
Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants: 41 disparity points
Performance rank: 19th; Support rank: 60th
Even though the past four seasons have seen Chapman's defensive metrics go down from their off-the-charts level a few years ago, he's still elite in those measures and has the Gold Gloves to prove it. Also, he's spectacular, a fixture on highlight reels whether it's making a long throw while moving into foul territory or charging and barehanding a slow roller to nail a runner. The defense keeps him in the 3.5 to 4.5 WAR range. And yet no All-Star Games since 2019. This season, Chapman is playing well enough to earn top-five NL MVP support, so we'll see if his underrated status continues.
One who is Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks: 8 disparity points
Performance rank: 30th; Support rank: 38th
Since Marte was the inspiration for this exercise, we couldn't leave him out, even though he didn't make the top 10. We might find out how underrated Marte is or isn't come MVP balloting time. Shohei Ohtani, who, incidentally, leads all players in both performance rank and support rank from 2021 to 2024, is the NL favorite and is often referred to as the front-runner. That's not wrong, but by the metrics, Marte is a lot closer than most people seem to realize. In fact, right now, his 6.1 bWAR is higher than Ohtani's (6.0).
Five who are overrated
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: Minus-29 disparity points
Performance rank: 46th; Support rank: 17th
You aren't going to win many friends and influence many people by calling Mike Trout overrated. Really, he isn't, because he's still so good ... when he plays. There's the rub. Trout made the All-Star team in each season from 2021 to 2023, and he deserved it; it's just that injuries kneecapped his end-of-season numbers. There is a lesson here that's pretty obvious: No matter how great you are, you can't accumulate value for your team when you're not on the field.
Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers: Minus-21 disparity points
Performance rank: 45th; Support rank: 24th
Hernandez's presence was a bit of a surprise for me, mostly because I hadn't really noticed he's a popular pick in All-Star balloting. He has produced 11.9 bWAR since 2021, a solid total but not star-level. Yet his rankings in the past four rounds of Phase I fan balloting at his position have been: sixth, sixth, 19th and, most recently, third.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays: Minus-15 disparity points
Performance rank: 20th; Support rank: 5th
Guerrero finished second in the 2021 MVP balloting and deserved it. Perhaps that monster season, in conjunction with the massive amount of hype that heralded his arrival in the majors back in 2019, led him onto this list. Guerrero led AL first basemen in All-Star fan balloting each season from 2021 to 2023. He was second this year. Ironically, Guerrero has been on such a tear since that balloting wrapped up that it has reminded everyone of the guy who nearly won that 2021 MVP trophy. Don't expect his fan support to wane any time soon.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals: Minus-8 disparity points
Performance rank: 23rd; Support rank: 15th
Goldschmidt used to be underrated. Then he won the 2022 NL MVP award, which he deserved, in his second straight huge season for the Cardinals. He has continued to land in the top 10 of NL first basemen in the fan balloting. This year, when Goldschmidt hasn't played much better than replacement level, is pretty much what landed him here.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres: Minus-7 disparity points
Performance rank: 21st; Support rank: 14th
Machado's story mirrors that of Goldschmidt. He's a great player and is recognized for it, but his support has held up a little stronger than his performance. Machado was down to 2.9 bWAR in 2023, and this year he's on pace to record his worst big league season in some categories, though he's trending up lately. Despite his down 2024 season, he finished second in NL fan balloting at third base.