As we enter the last few weeks of the 2024 MLB season and the awards races reach their crucial final stages, one category stands above all others: the epic derby for American League MVP.
You can read the current verdict below, though nothing is decided. Three players have already cracked the seven-win barrier according to the Baseball Reference version of WAR: Aaron Judge (7.7) and Juan Soto (7.1) of the Yankees, and Bobby Witt Jr. (7.2) of the Royals. Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson (6.9) and Boston's Jarren Duran (6.6) aren't far behind. The FanGraphs version of WAR is pretty close on the top three, giving Judge, Soto and Witt more than seven wins as well.
Focusing on the top three, given the games already in the books for their respective teams, the paces of the power trio have them all on target for more than 10 WAR. Judge (11.1) leads the on-pace chart, with Soto and Witt both right around 10.1. Henderson, meanwhile, is on track for 9.8 bWAR and only needs to pick up the pace a little to give us four hitters with double-digit wins.
We can make fun of paces all we want, but we're in the second week of August and the pace of WAR accumulation has been quickening for each of the top three, while Henderson has resumed his dominance after a temporary dip.
Why is this notable? Well, there has never been a season in which three hitters in the same league have topped 10 WAR. In fact, there have been only three seasons in which two hitters in a league have reached that benchmark, according to the Stathead tool at Baseball Reference:
1910 American League: Ty Cobb and Eddie Collins (both 10.5)
1927 American League: Babe Ruth (12.6) and Lou Gehrig (11.9)
2001 National League: Barry Bonds (11.9) and Sammy Sosa (10.3)
Judge's bWAR is already higher than the end-of-season leader for a number of leagues in recent years -- and yet there is still no certainty that he will wind up atop the 2024 AL leaderboard. Call the AL MVP race unique, special, amazing -- all hyperbole works in this case. But we'll go with epic.