Recently, we ranked the six 2023 MLB playoff teams that could be in trouble this year. Now, let's examine the clubs most likely to reach the postseason in 2024 after missing out last season.
There's a wide variety to this group: typical playoff contenders who saw major debacles lead to down seasons in 2023, squads that just narrowly missed out last year (some of whose fates came down to the final days of the season) and others who are newly on the rise.
Once again, we'll go off the historical trend of about half of playoff teams getting turned over from year to year -- so six of 12. Using my colleague Bradford Doolittle's most recent playoff odds, let's rank the top six candidates to join this year's postseason party and get into why they will, or won't, be playing baseball come October.
New York Yankees
Doolittle's playoff odds: 60.1%
When understanding why the Yankees fare so well in their playoff odds, it's important to understand how projection systems work. Players receive projected statistical lines and estimated playing time, with playing time based both on a player's injury history and their role on the team. Thousands of season simulations are run to arrive at a median win-loss record and the resulting playoff odds.
In general, any projection system is rather conservative in its outputs: Players who had great seasons are expected to regress; players coming off bad seasons might be expected to improve. Young players get better; old players get older. What helps the Yankees is that they have three superstar players in Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole: These are among the few players so good that they aren't expected to regress. This gives the Yankees a high floor of top-level value. Throw in a likely-to-improve Anthony Volpe, other new additions in Alex Verdugo, Trent Grisham and Marcus Stroman and bounce-back seasons from Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, and the Yankees look like strong playoff contenders -- even coming off an 82-win season and playing in a tough division.
Except, Cole is now injured and will miss the start of the season with elbow inflammation. Prior to his injury, we estimated their playoff chances at nearly 80%. For the purposes of this exercise, we're giving Cole a half-season's worth of work -- and the Yankees still come in with strong odds.
Don't underestimate the value Soto brings to the lineup -- a lineup that finished 11th in the American League in runs. Only Judge and Gleyber Torres were above-average hitters last season for the Yankees. While Soto will primarily play right field, he's essentially replacing the offensive output of a mix of left fielders from 2023 who were terrible. The Yankees started 10 different players there. Nobody started more than 34 games, and they ranked 27th in the majors in OPS, hitting just .220/.299/.368. Yankees left fielders created about 64 runs; Soto, playing every game for the San Diego Padres, created about 127. That's about six additional wins right there and a key reason the Yankees are projected to win more than 90 games in 2024.
Why they will miss October again: Look, there's no doubt the Soto addition is huge. But here's where we point out that the Yankees have been a .500 team for a season-and-a-half now. After starting 61-23 in 2022, they went 38-40 to close the season. That, along with 2023, is nine months of mediocre baseball, and while Verdugo and Grisham are nice depth pieces, they're hardly game-changers. Not to mention the Soto trade meant dealing away Michael King and three other potential starting pitchers.
That gets to why Cole's status looms over their entire season. The only other pitchers on staff to throw more than 100 innings in 2023 were Clarke Schmidt and Stroman. Rodon and Cortes, coming off injuries, are hardly guaranteed to match their outstanding 2022 seasons, and the Yankees traded away three pitchers who started games last season in the Soto trade, depleting their second-level depth. Without Cole, candidates to join the rotation include Luis Gil and Luke Weaver, who had a 6.40 ERA in 2023 and 6.56 in 2022. If the Yankees falter, we're already seeing the reason why: injuries and lack of depth in the rotation.
Chicago Cubs
Doolittle's playoff odds: 53.5%
The 2024 Cubs will look a lot like the 2023 Cubs -- a team that should have made the playoffs but performed seven wins worse than its expected record. That led to the firing of manager David Ross and the hiring of ex-Brewers manager Craig Counsell. Given Counsell's success in building bullpens in Milwaukee, that alone could lift the Cubs to the postseason -- a possible improvement not accounted for in projection systems, which don't factor in the manager.
Indeed, in looking at the past 25 clubs (not including 2019 or 2020) to finish at least seven games worse than their expected win total, those "unlucky" teams improved an average of five wins the following season. An additional five wins puts the Cubs at 88, which should put them comfortably in the range of a wild-card spot and perhaps atop the NL Central as well.
They finished third in the NL in runs scored and have everybody back now that they re-signed Cody Bellinger, a move that improved the Cubs' playoff odds about 10% from the previous projections, so the offense should be fine or even better with the addition of Michael Busch, more at-bats from Christopher Morel and a big season from Seiya Suzuki, who hit .313/.372/.566 in the second half and looks primed to perhaps come close to that over a full season. The Cubs' defense will also help give them a high floor: Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ each won Gold Gloves last season, Bellinger is a plus defender in center field or at first base, and rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong, who will start the season in the minors but should be up at some point, draws raves for his defensive prowess in center field.
Why they will miss October again: Bringing back the same team isn't always a good idea -- especially when that team didn't make the playoffs. They've replaced Stroman with left-hander Shota Imanaga from Japan, but that's not necessarily an upgrade since Imanaga hasn't pitched in MLB yet. Bellinger (4.4 WAR) and starter Justin Steele (3.8 WAR) are strong regression candidates, and Counsell doesn't have Josh Hader or Devin Williams in his bullpen like he did in Milwaukee. It feels like this team needed to make a big upgrade somewhere and failed to do that.
Indeed, the Cubs will have Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and Jordan Wicks in their rotation -- three pitchers with below-average fastball velocity. Yes, the defense will help, but the Cubs are zagging when everybody else is zigging. Throw in that Jameson Taillon is battling some back issues in spring training, and the rotation could end up as a significant issue.
St. Louis Cardinals
Doolittle's playoff odds: 46.8%
It was an unusual season for the Cardinals, one of the most stable franchises in the sport over the past 25 years: a 71-91 record, their first losing season since 2007 and their worst winning percentage since 1995. As our playoff odds suggest, however, there is a high degree of probability they turn it around. First off, they had a clearly identifiable problem that dragged down the season: The starting pitching wasn't good, with a 5.08 ERA that ranked 26th in the majors and ranks as the second-worst rotation ERA in franchise history. Second, both the National League Central and the NL wild-card race look wide open, helping their playoff chances.
The Cardinals addressed their pitching problem in signing free agents Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The emphasis there was on durability: Gibson ranked 12th in the majors in innings pitched in 2023, while Gray and Lynn ranked 22nd and 23rd as all three topped 180 innings. Gray is coming off a season in which he finished second in the AL Cy Young race and posted 5.3 WAR -- that's a seven-win improvement over Adam Wainwright, who struggled to minus-2.0 WAR in his final season. While Gray isn't projected to be that good again, he's still a major upgrade. Lynn will have to bounce back from a season in which he led the majors in home runs allowed but still fanned 191 batters in 183⅔ innings, suggesting he still has the strikeout stuff to post better numbers.
The offense should also be better after scoring 719 runs, 10th in the NL and a 53-run decline from 2022. Jordan Walker, who will turn 22 years old in May, and Nolan Gorman, 24 in May, have breakout potential. They combined for 43 home runs last season but could easily reach 60-plus in 2024. Other young players like Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson and rookie shortstop Masyn Winn should also be on the upswing, creating a deeper lineup.
Why they will miss October again: Well, the injuries are already starting. Gray suffered a mild right hamstring strain, though it's possible he could still make his Opening Day start. Keep in mind that while Gray pitched 184 innings last season, he averaged just 128 over 2021-22. Also, Gray is the youngest of the three starters they signed at 34 years old. Throw in 35-year-old Miles Mikolas and this is an old rotation with the resulting age-related risk. Meanwhile, Nootbaar has two fractured ribs after falling while trying to make a catch in the outfield in early March, although he may also be ready for Opening Day, and Tommy Edman, the projected center fielder, is still dealing with wrist soreness following offseason surgery.
And how much offense will the Cardinals get from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado? After all, the two future Hall of Famers were the primary reason the offense wasn't as strong as it was in 2022. The two created about 242 runs in 2022, when Goldschmidt won MVP honors and Arenado finished third, but created about 176 runs last season. Given their ages, that may be their new level of production.
Seattle Mariners
Doolittle's playoff odds: 45.0%
This one is easy to figure out: The Mariners are eighth in wins in the majors since 2021, made the playoffs in 2022 and missed them by one victory last season. They don't have to improve that much to reach the postseason or even win the division if the Texas Rangers or Houston Astros falter just a bit -- and neither of those teams match Seattle's rotation of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Castillo, Gilbert and Kirby each ranked in the top 15 in innings pitched and top 25 in ERA in 2023. Miller and Woo came up as rookies and helped stabilize the rotation, and they will be even better if they improve against left-handers (both had big platoon splits, but Miller has added a new splitter while Woo is working to refine his changeup).
On offense, Seattle has Julio Rodriguez and ... actually, the offense might be better than it's given credit for. The Mariners were seventh in the AL in runs and just 16th in the majors in raw OPS, but they ranked tied for seventh in the majors in the park-adjusted wRC+. They've parted ways with Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez, who each struck out more than 200 times last year, in an effort to put more balls in play after finishing the season with the second-most strikeouts in the majors, behind just the Minnesota Twins. In a sport where younger players are taking over, the Mariners seem to be in the perfect zone of youth plus experience: The only projected regulars over the age of 30 are DH Mitch Garver (33), outfielder Mitch Haniger (33), Castillo (31) and second baseman Jorge Polanco (30).
Why they will miss October again: It's the Mariners. They have one playoff appearance in the past 22 seasons, with excruciating final-weekend exits in both 2021 and 2023. This is a franchise that never catches a break. Of course, the projections and playoff odds are agnostic about that history, so Doolittle's system sees the Mariners about even at the moment with the Rangers.
There are other reasons to have doubt, however. After trading Marco Gonzales and Robbie Ray to save money, the rotation outside of the top five is very thin, with rookie Emerson Hancock the No. 6 starter and not many of note after him. Relievers Matt Brash and Gregory Santos, the top setup guys in front of closer Andres Munoz, have battled issues in spring training, with Brash still on the mend from elbow inflammation and Santos now out for Opening Day with a lat strain. Seattle had to go out and sign ex-Astros reliever Ryne Stanek for added depth. And there is a chance the bullpen completely collapses this year, despite the recent history of success in that department.
On offense, sure, the Mariners dumped a bunch of strikeouts, but they also lost 94 home runs from last year's roster -- 45% of the team total. It's certainly not obvious that newcomers Garver (coming off a good season), Haniger (coming off a bad season), Luke Raley (.925 OPS in the first half, .677 in the second half) and Polanco (who played just 80 games) will replace that production. The offense might need Rodriguez to improve his OBP and slugging just to hold ground -- and in the tough AL, where it might take 90 wins to make the playoffs, holding ground won't be enough.
Cleveland Guardians
Doolittle's playoff odds: 42.6%
Brad's system projects Cleveland with just the ninth-best record in the American League, but their 28% chance to win the AL Central boosts their overall playoff odds. Indeed, the Tigers, Royals and White Sox don't look appreciably better on paper -- well, the Royals look better, but were so bad last season that they're still probably not good -- and given that the Twins lost Cy Young runner-up in Sonny Gray, it's not too difficult to envision Cleveland winning the division, even with a win total in the mid-80s.
The path to the postseason is simple: Starting pitching. Rookies Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams made 65 starts last year with a 3.35 ERA. Throw in a healthy Shane Bieber, who made just 21 starts, and Triston McKenzie, who made just four after his terrific breakout season in 2022, and the rotation has a chance to be one of the best if those top five stay healthy.
Another key is closer Emmanuel Clase, who went 3-9 with 12 blown saves. He did allow more contact in general -- the whiff rate on his slider fell from 42.7% to 31.3% -- but there was also some bad luck on balls in play. He's not going to lose nine games again or blow 12 saves. And, yes, the offense will be better: A full season from catcher Bo Naylor, who hit 11 home runs in just 198 at-bats; the addition of rookie first baseman/DH Kyle Manzardo; and, surely, more production from an outfield that hit just 18 home runs.
Why they will miss again: Let's not sugarcoat this: Scoring runs is still going to be an issue. Despite that pathetic total of 18 home runs, they didn't make any significant additions to the outfield. Manzardo hit .242 in Triple-A and isn't projected as a big power guy anyway, so he's hardly a sure thing. Jose Ramirez isn't getting any younger and had a power drop-off last season.
The other issue is that injuries are already cropping up on the pitching staff. Williams is ticketed for the IL after some elbow discomfort, and there isn't any obvious rotation depth after the top five -- non-roster starters in camp include Carlos Carrasco and Adam Oller or they could use Xzavion Curry, who started a bit last season. Trevor Stephan, a key setup reliever the past two seasons, will undergo Tommy John surgery. That doesn't even get into the durability issues for Bieber and McKenzie or possible regression from Bibee and Allen. Indeed, FanGraphs forecasts the Guardians with just the 21st best rotation in the majors. If that's the case, this isn't a playoff team -- even in the AL Central.
San Diego Padres
Doolittle's playoff odds: 41.1%
If we ran this article a week ago, the Padres wouldn't have been on this list: But since the last update, they acquired Dylan Cease to help fill out a rotation that now looks strong at the top with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Cease and Michael King. They've apparently solved the gaping hole in center field with rookie Jackson Merrill, who has handled the transition from shortstop and performed well at the plate in spring training, giving the Padres confidence he can make the leap from Double-A.
And don't forget: While the Padres finished 82-80 in 2023, they had a Pythagorean record of 92-70. They went 2-12 in extra-inning games and 9-23 in one-run games. So while they've lost Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Josh Hader, they're still working from a strong base of front-line talent that besides the starting pitchers includes Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim and Xander Bogaerts (and moving Kim to shortstop and Bogaerts to second base should help the defense, while Tatis and Machado could both put up better offensive numbers).
Don't read this as a ringing endorsement for the Padres: The NL wild-card race will likely resemble last year's, when six teams finished between 79 and 84 wins, with two of them making the playoffs. That's why the Cease deal was so vital: A couple wins could easily be the difference between making the postseason or missing it. Cease was a big upgrade for the rotation.
Why they will miss again: There are still just too many holes here. They don't have a DH (J.D. Martinez would look nice here). Left field is ... Jurickson Profar? He's coming off a minus-1.3 WAR season. Merrill is a huge gamble, not just on defense but just in rushing him to the majors with so little time above Class A. Jake Cronenworth (.229/.312/.378) gave the Padres the worst first-base production in the majors. Oh, and you just don't lose a Cy Young winner, one of the best hitters in the game and perhaps the best closer in the game, and expect to roll smoothly into the next season. The back of the bullpen is a question mark and then factor in a lack of depth on the 40-man roster and even one injury to one of the top starters could be a crushing blow.