One mistake often made in predictions is expecting teams to do the same thing year after year -- and that rings true when it comes to October baseball.
We've had two seasons of the new 12-team MLB playoff format, and six of the 2022 playoff teams failed to make it back last year. Will half of the 2023 postseason teams meet a similar fate in 2024?
That 50% ratio follows the historical trends from when we had the 10-team system, so we can probably expect a similar turnover, but what's interesting about last year is how severe the drop-offs were from 2022 to 2023, an average of 15 fewer wins per team. So it wasn't just that they barely missed out, with the New York Mets, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres all having major debacles.
Now, that level of extremity shouldn't typically be the case -- but it does mean that teams that have frequented the playoffs, like a number of the ones above have, are going to be vying for a playoff berth alongside the 12 teams that did make it to October last season.
That begs the question: Which six of the 2023 playoff teams are most likely to get bumped and why? Let's turn to my colleague Bradford Doolittle and use his playoff odds from his latest Stock Watch projections to rank the six teams most likely to miss the postseason this year -- and why, or why not, that might be the case.
1. Miami Marlins
Doolittle's playoff odds: 23.4%
It's no surprise that the Marlins top our list, though they're still given a one-in-four chance of making the playoffs. Those odds speak to the expected congested nature of the National League wild-card race, where only the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals are unlikely contenders.
The Marlins were essentially a happy fluke in 2023: Their minus-57 run differential was the worst ever for a playoff team. Based on their runs scored and allowed total, they should have finished 75-87; instead, they went a remarkable 33-14 in one-run games, one of the best records ever, and won 84 games to squeeze into the playoffs. Studies show that repeating that kind of success in one-run games is unlikely, so the Marlins will have to improve across the board just to get back to 84 wins.
It's been a quiet offseason, however. Yes, they'll have Jake Burger and Josh Bell for the entire season, but they've lost Jorge Soler and his 36 home runs and Luis Arraez probably won't hit .354 again. While the bullpen was clutch last season, it was also just 22nd in the majors in ERA, so a decline in win probability is almost certain. The infield defense could be the worst in the majors if they line up with Burger at third, Tim Anderson at shortstop, Arraez at second and Bell at first -- four guys with subpar range. Oh, and they'll be without 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara for the entire season.
Why they could make it back: You can never have too much pitching, and the Marlins might be one of the few teams with starting pitching depth to spare -- even without Alcantara. Eury Perez is an ace in the making, and Trevor Rogers and Max Meyer are healthy as they return from injuries. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett are coming off excellent seasons, and the Marlins might have a secret weapon in former reliever A.J. Puk, who is being stretched out as a starter. Armed with a new splitter and throwing his sinker more often, Puk has looked outstanding early in spring training.
While the offense wasn't good in 2023, consider the dismal production the Marlins got from Jean Segura (52 OPS+), Joey Wendle (50 OPS+) and Yuli Gurriel (79 OPS+), and both catchers had an OPS+ below 60. That was 1,600 plate appearances of absolute garbage. Even something close to just league-average production will be a huge improvement.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Doolittle's playoff odds: 24.9%
Some of the reasons for the Brewers' low playoff odds are easy to understand: They traded Corbin Burnes (32 starts) and Adrian Houser (21 starts) and Brandon Woodruff is likely out for the season (11 starts). That's 64 starts of a combined 3.41 ERA, and that won't be easy to replace. On offense, the Brewers return just two above-average hitters in William Contreras and Christian Yelich (and thanks to timely hitting, the pair scored about 40 runs more than would have been predicted via their base statistics).
The bullpen was also outstanding, ranking second in the majors with a 3.36 ERA. While Devin Williams should remain arguably the best closer in the game and Abner Uribe is an up-and-coming flamethrower, projection systems are going to build in regression from the likes of Bryse Wilson (2.58 ERA), Joel Payamps (2.55 ERA) and Hoby Milner (1.82). We also don't know whether new manager Pat Murphy will have the same artful touch with the bullpen as Craig Counsell did, although that isn't built into the projections.
But maybe the biggest factor: The rest of the division might simply be better. The Chicago Cubs underperformed their Pythagorean record by seven wins and now have Counsell at the helm, the Cardinals should bounce back from their first losing season since 2007 and the youthful Cincinnati Reds are a popular pick to do even better than they did last year. Even the Pittsburgh Pirates could be a factor. That makes the NL Central much more of a toss-up and lowers the Brewers' playoff odds.
Why they could make it back: Well, the bullpen still projects as one of the best in the majors -- plus pitching coach Chris Hook is still there and Murphy has been the bench coach since 2016, so that should be a seamless transition. On offense, Rhys Hoskins will be a significant upgrade over the departed Rowdy Tellez, and don't sleep on Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes trade. He hit .321/.378/.507 at Triple-A and has good contact skills and big exit velocity metrics despite his size. He could be an immediate impact performer -- as could center fielder Jackson Chourio, Kiley McDaniel's No. 2 overall prospect, who could crack the Opening Day roster.
Also, the Brewers will once again be one of the best defensive teams in the majors -- perhaps even better with Chourio joining the outfield, giving the Brewers four plus defenders out there with Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick. That will allow Yelich a little more DH time, which will improve the production there. The defense will make the pitching staff a lot better.
3.Texas Rangers
Doolittle's playoff odds: 49.7%
No respect for the defending champs? Perhaps not -- though, perhaps understandable. The top of the American League is loaded with strong playoff contenders, especially with the Yankees expected to bounce back, and while the Rangers are predicted to have a better record than the Minnesota Twins, the Twins have an easier path to the playoffs in the AL Central. The playoff percentage here isn't a knock on the Rangers, just a testament to the fact that they're in a division with the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners that saw all three teams neck and neck for the title last year. Nothing is a lock, and the Rangers have one potential weak spot that could ruin their chances at repeating.
That concern is the health of the starting rotation. We already know Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle will be out until sometime around the All-Star break. The Rangers still have plenty of starting pitchers to carry the load until then -- Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford line up as the Opening Day rotation -- but a couple of those guys have shaky health histories.
They added David Robertson and Kirby Yates to a bullpen that did the job in October but was inconsistent in the regular season, ranking 24th in the majors in ERA. Robertson turns 39 in April while Yates is 37 and just played his first healthy season since 2019, so neither is a sure thing. That leaves question marks about both the rotation and the bullpen that need to be answered.
Why they could make it back: Umm ... the Rangers just led the AL in runs scored and will now be adding on-base machine Evan Carter for the entire season and rookie sensation Wyatt Langford, who has been so impressive since the Rangers drafted him last June that he nearly replaced the injured Adolis Garcia on the World Series roster last October and might have gone straight into the 3-hole despite having no major league experience. Langford impressed pitching coach Mike Maddux during one BP session this spring so much that Maddux said, "I just saw the best player on the field." In other words, even if the pitching falters a bit, it won't matter.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Doolittle's playoff odds: 52.9%
We mentioned the Brewers having to replace 64 quality starts. The Rays are in a similar situation: Gone are Tyler Glasnow (21 starts, traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers) and Shane McClanahan (21 starts, out for the season with Tommy John surgery). Jeffrey Springs is still out after Tommy John surgery last April and Drew Rasmussen is expected to miss most or all of 2024 after UCL surgery last July. No team is better at finding pitching than the Rays, but that's a lot to overcome.
Then there's replacing Wander Franco: He led the team with 5.5 WAR a year ago in just 112 games before going on the restricted list. The Rays traded for Jose Caballero from Seattle and signed Amed Rosario to give them options at shortstop, but neither of those two is going to replace Franco's value. Maybe top prospect Junior Caminero can win the job, although that would be an aggressive promotion with just half a season above High-A under his belt. Ultimately, the Rays face the same equation as the Rangers: In a division with the Baltimore Orioles, Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, they could win 90 games and still miss the playoffs, which caps their playoff odds at around 50%.
Why they could make it back: The Rays always find a way -- just as they did last year in winning 99 games, even with Springs and Rasmussen going down after just 11 combined starts. First off, don't ignore the offense: They scored 860 runs, just 21 fewer than the Rangers. Other than Franco and Luke Raley, all the major contributors are back -- and aside from Caminero, the Rays have youngsters like Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda who will help give them as much position player depth as any team in the majors.
On the pitching front, Zach Eflin is coming off a 16-win season in which he walked just 24 batters in 31 starts and Taj Bradley should make a big leap forward -- he fanned 129 in 104⅔ innings, speaking to his elite stuff. Zack Littell and Aaron Civale are two of the best control pitchers in the league and serviceable starters. Ryan Pepiot came over from the Dodgers in the Glasnow trade and will be in the rotation. Shane Baz, the former top prospect recovering from Tommy John surgery, should be ready at some point. The bullpen, as always, is deep, returning five top relievers from last year who had ERAs of 3.09 or lower. Bet against the Rays? At your own risk.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
Doolittle's playoff odds: 55.5%
That was a fun ride to the World Series, but don't be fooled: The Diamondbacks were basically a .500 team that got hot at the right time and were lucky to face a beat-up Dodgers team and then avoid facing the powerhouse Atlanta Braves. So we have to view them as what they were over 162 games, not what they were in October, and that means playoff odds hovering just over 50% -- right in the middle of that crowded NL wild-card race.
The biggest issue for Arizona remains its pitching depth. The D-backs did sign Eduardo Rodriguez to help a rotation that was a mess once you got past Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but we'll see what they get from the fourth and fifth spots. Brandon Pfaadt had some solid outings in the playoffs and might have turned the corner, but he was still 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA during the regular season, while Ryne Nelson had a 5.31 ERA. And there's little depth behind those five.
The bullpen is also potentially shaky. Kevin Ginkel had a breakout season, but closer Paul Sewald is never going to be a lights-out ninth-inning guy and is prone to the home run (ask Corey Seager). None of the other top returning guys had an ERA under 4.00. It just feels like there are way too many pitching questions here to stamp the Diamondbacks as a definitive playoff team -- any injury to Gallen or Kelly would be a severe blow.
Why they could make it back: First, there's a clear reason to believe in Pfaadt's late-season improvement: In the middle of the season he moved from the third-base side of the rubber to the first-base side. He was much better after returning from a stint in the minors, including that postseason run when he had a 3.27 ERA over five starts with a superb 26-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With the addition of Rodriguez and Pfaadt set up for a potential breakout season, the D-backs should have one of the best top four in the NL.
Aside from the rotation, this is an offense that should have a high floor, led by pending superstar Corbin Carroll, who finished fifth in the MVP voting and unanimously won Rookie of the Year. The Diamondbacks added Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson to improve the power production at third base and DH, while Randal Grichuk provides a solid right-handed platoon bat. Top prospect Jordan Lawlar could take over at shortstop and provide an upgrade. Basically, they have no holes in the lineup, play excellent defense and have a deep bench -- outside of the pitching staff -- to cover any injuries. With a young, athletic core to build around, 2023 might have been just the first step for this franchise.
6. Toronto Blue Jays
Doolittle's playoff odds: 55.7%
Personally, I like the Rangers and Rays a little more than the Blue Jays, who won 92 games in 2022 and 89 in 2023 but didn't really do anything to get better in the offseason (losing Matt Chapman and replacing Brandon Belt with Justin Turner). One thing to note from last season, however: They had extremely good health, with six players appearing in at least 135 games and four starters making 30-plus starts (the only team in the majors to do that).
Aside from questioning the ultimate upside of the offense -- they were eighth in the AL in runs scored -- I wonder if the Jays will get the same seasons from Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi that they did in 2023, as opposed to the year before:
Berrios 2022: 5.23 ERA
Berrios 2023: 3.65 ERA
Kikuchi 2022: 5.19 ERA
Kikuchi 2023: 3.86 ERA
Given that Alek Manoah is already dealing with a sore right shoulder, the fifth spot in the rotation is now an issue. If Berrios and Kikuchi regress even a little, that could be a reason the Jays miss the playoffs.
Why they could make it back: There's just so much talent here -- if anything, the Jays probably underperformed in 2023. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in great shape; that doesn't necessarily mean he'll hit like he did in 2021, but he's capable of producing much more than he did in 2023 (when he not only struggled at home but hit just two home runs against left-handers). Kevin Gausman is one of the best starters in the majors, and the bullpen is as deep as anybody's. Yariel Rodriguez could be a huge addition to the staff, whether he's starting or relieving. Berrios? He'll be fine, as 2022 is the aberration in an otherwise consistent career. If they can get anything from Manoah, this might be a top-three rotation -- and given the rotation concerns in Baltimore, New York, Tampa Bay and Boston, that means the Jays can win the division.