The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks were a team few predicted to make the playoffs, coming off an 88-loss season the previous year. They managed to squeeze into the 12-team postseason with an 84-78 record and rode that momentum all the way to the World Series.
They swept the 92-win Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card series, swept the 100-win Los Angeles Dodgers in three games in the division series, and then beat the Philadelphia Phillies in seven games in the NLCS, becoming just the second team to reach the Fall Classic after posting a negative run differential during the regular season.
Were they the best team in the National League over 162 games? No, that would be the 104-win Atlanta Braves, who were knocked out in the division series by the Phillies for the second year in a row. But the D-backs were the best when it mattered most. That's why I call MLB's postseason the great equalizer. All the advantages that a large payroll might bring during the regular season are minimized in October, when it's all about winning short series and getting hot at the right time.
"The one thing I can say is there's a reason every team makes the playoffs," Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at spring training last week. "You're facing good teams. Whoever wins, deserves to win. ... If you make the playoffs after 162, you deserve to be there."
The postseason format creates opportunity for a surprise team like the Diamondbacks. After all, they were doing something right in order to make the playoffs and subsequently reach the World Series. It also points to the proposition that we might see another surprise team in 2024 -- somebody that nobody is forecasting right now as a World Series team.
So now it's time to have some fun trying to predict who that team could be, based on the recipe that led to Arizona's surprising success.
We should note that this exercise is not to ignore the Rangers, who went from 68-94 in 2022 to World Series champs the following year. They certainly qualify as a surprise winner, but they spent a lot of money in free agency in order to do so.
Who could be this year's D-backs?
Before we dive into the numbers, there is one team that jumps out to me as the potential "Diamondbacks of 2024" -- the Cincinnati Reds, a young team on the rise whose recent history is similar to Arizona's:
2021 Diamondbacks: 52-110, minus-214 run differential
2022 Reds: 62-100, minus-167 run differential
2022 Diamondbacks: 77-85, minus-38 run differential
2023 Reds: 82-80, minus-38 run differential
Yes, the Reds won 82 games last year, so this isn't exactly going out a limb. But they were outscored on the season, and Brad Doolittle's recent Stock Watch projected the Reds for 80 wins again this year.
Let's look at a few things the Diamondbacks did well just to get into the postseason, how the Reds compare in those categories and how a number of other teams that missed the 2023 playoffs also compare. We'll ignore the New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs here, because while all three missed the playoffs, they would hardly qualify as surprise teams.
Have two top starting pitchers
As a group, the Arizona rotation wasn't that impressive, ranking 21st in the majors with a 4.67 ERA, but they did have two aces, or near aces, in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Gallen made 34 starts and finished second in the majors with 210 innings; Kelly made 30 starts, missing a month with a blood clot in his right leg, and finished tied for 28th with 177⅔ innings. The only pair of teammates to throw more combined innings were Toronto's Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios. Gallen ranked seventh in bWAR (4.3) while Kelly ranked tied for 13th (3.8).
Those two kept the rotation afloat during the regular season. In the playoffs, with the added days off, you can eliminate your fifth starter and if you advance quickly enough, even avoid a fourth starter at times. Gallen and Kelly started 10 of the Diamondbacks' 17 playoff games and accounted for 38% of the team's innings compared to 27% in the regular season. Third starter Brandon Pfaadt started five times and the Diamondbacks didn't even use a fourth starter, going with bullpen games in the other two contests.
How the Reds compare: At this point, it's still more potential than actual production for Cincinnati's young starters. Graham Ashcraft led the team in 2023 with 26 starts and 145⅔ innings. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Hunter Greene ranked eighth in strikeout rate but still posted a 4.82 ERA. Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson had promising rookie seasons, while Nick Lodolo will attempt to rebound from a leg injury that limited him to seven starts. The Reds signed veteran Frankie Montas, who's coming off a shoulder injury, to a one-year contract, and Nick Martinez provides additional depth.
There's no Gallen/Kelly duo capable of combining for 380 innings here, but there is ability. With his big fastball and wipeout slider, Greene remains a tantalizing breakout candidate. Ashcraft is one of the hardest-throwing starters in the game, with a fastball that averaged 96.5 mph. Montas picked up down-ballot Cy Young votes in his last fully healthy season in 2021, pitching 187 innings and recording 207 strikeouts. Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, with its short power alleys, doesn't help this young staff, but those three have the stuff that can work in October.
Keep an eye on: San Francisco Giants. They already have a legitimate ace in Logan Webb, who led the majors with 216 innings and finished second in the Cy Young voting. They don't really have a No. 2 starter at the moment, although they could add Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Rookie Kyle Harrison has top-of-the-rotation potential but will be on an innings limit after throwing just 102 innings last season. If they get to October, Webb, Snell/Montgomery, Harrison and a healthy Alex Cobb (who will miss the start of the season) would be a rotation that could shut down a powerful lineup such as the Atlanta Braves or the Los Angeles Dodgers.
In trouble: New York Mets. Kodai Senga was supposed to be the No. 1 starter, but he received a shoulder injection last week and will be shut down for three weeks, so he won't be ready for Opening Day. After that, it's Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, who they hope will bounce back from a 6.65 ERA with the Yankees last year.
Play good defense
The Diamondbacks ranked fourth in the majors with plus-68 defensive runs saved (DRS) and were at least solid defensively at every position. They had two players in Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll with center-field speed in the outfield, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had a very good season in left field and first baseman Christian Walker has won two straight Gold Gloves. Their best defender may have been catcher Gabriel Moreno, who won a Gold Glove in his first full season. Thanks to his rocket arm, the D-backs allowed the second-fewest stolen bases in the majors. He even threw out the Phillies' Trea Turner, who had been 30-for-30 stealing bases in the regular season, on an attempted steal in the NLCS -- in a game the Diamondbacks won by one run.
How the Reds compare: The Reds are young, which usually translates to athleticism and good defense, but they weren't a good defensive team last season -- ranking 28th in the majors in DRS. However, they weren't quite that bad via UZR or Statcast, and there is some potential here to improve. Statcast liked TJ Friedl's range in center and Elly De La Cruz's range at shortstop. Still, Friedl ranked just 62nd among all fielders in outs above average, so there probably isn't a Gold Glove defender on the roster. Getting Spencer Steer off the dirt and into left field could help -- or at least cause less damage, as he rated terrible in the infield but OK in left. New third baseman Jeimer Candelario is at best average at third, but he will be an upgrade over what the Reds got there last season.
Keep an eye on: Cleveland Guardians. They seem to believe power doesn't matter, so they better catch the ball -- and they usually do a pretty good job at it. Second baseman Andres Gimenez and left fielder Steven Kwan are back-to-back Gold Glove winners and deservedly so -- Gimenez was third among all position players in Statcast's outs above average metric -- while center fielder Myles Straw plays only because of his glove. The keys will be rookie shortstop Brayan Rocchio, who projects as an upgrade over Amed Rosario, and cleaning up the running game, where they allowed the third-most stolen bases.
In trouble: Kansas City Royals. Looking to add some veteran depth, the Royals signed right fielder Hunter Renfroe and second baseman Adam Frazier. Renfroe has a powerful arm but subpar range and was credited with minus-9 DRS. Via outs above average, Frazier was the fourth-worst defender in baseball (minus-15 OAA). Left fielder MJ Melendez is another big liability, but if Salvador Perez DHs more often, Melendez is going to have to play in the field. At least they're good at shortstop with Bobby Witt Jr. and in center with Kyle Isbel -- but Isbel had a .280 OBP and probably isn't a regular. The Royals may be a trendy pick to improve, and they believe they can be a sleeper contender in the AL Central, but the defense isn't going to help.
Develop a star player
The Diamondbacks had been without a star position player since trading Paul Goldschmidt in 2018, but then Carroll won Rookie of the Year honors and finished fifth in the MVP voting after hitting .285/.362/.506 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases. His 5.4 WAR ranked in the top 15 among position players, alongside the likes of Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. An average player is worth about 2.0 WAR, so the three-win upgrade Carroll provided over an average regular was the difference in a wild-card race where three teams finished one or two games back.
How the Reds compare: The Reds won 82 games last season even though their best players via WAR -- hitters or pitchers -- were Friedl at 3.8 and Matt McLain at 3.7. Considering that 10 of the 12 playoff teams had at least two 4-WAR players (the Diamondbacks had four), Cincinnati's road to the postseason may simply require a couple of their young players to take that next (big) step.
Foremost is De La Cruz, who was absolutely electrifying as a rookie, but as fun as he was, he was still more highlight-reel standout than valuable performer. He finished at .235/.300/.410 with a 34% strikeout rate. After his hot first three weeks, he hit just .191 over his final 68 games as pitchers exploited his aggressive approach. His fielding was flashy but inconsistent. Still, the tools are loud, and if he can improve his swing decisions, we could see the same leap to stardom achieved by Bobby Witt Jr., who improved from 0.9 WAR as a rookie to 4.4 as a sophomore.
Can you win without a star hitter? It's possible. Neither the Minnesota Twins nor Milwaukee Brewers had a four-win position player and won their division. While the Reds don't have any glaring holes -- the only position rated lower than 20th overall in FanGraphs' positional projections is catcher -- they also don't have any clear projected strengths, with no position ranked in the top 10. They're going to need De La Cruz, McLain, Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to exceed projections -- and all four were rookies last season, so it's possible.
Keep an eye on: St. Louis Cardinals. Coming off their first losing season since 2007, the Cardinals aren't exactly a deep sleeper, but improving from 71 wins to the playoffs is no easy task, no matter your franchise history. Jordan Walker is an obvious breakout candidate after a solid rookie season, if he can learn to tap into his raw power and clean up his atrocious defense in right field. Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn is a work in progress at the plate, but he'll improve the team's defense. And don't be surprised if Lars Nootbaar finally puts it all together and improves from 3.3 WAR to the 5.0 range.
In trouble: Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have the feel of a sleeper team. They were 78-84 in a weak division, and if the Twins fall back a few wins, it won't take much more than .500 to win the AL Central. Heck, .500 might even be enough. Detroit's best position player according to WAR in 2023, however, was ... drum roll ... Andy Ibanez at 2.0. Riley Greene (1.9), Kerry Carpenter (1.9), Spencer Torkelson (0.8) and rookies Parker Meadows and Colt Keith form the foundation, but I'm not sure any of them are future stars at the 5-WAR level.
Figure out your bullpen at the right time
Arizona's bullpen wasn't a strength for most of the season, but after acquiring closer Paul Sewald at the trade deadline and putting Kevin Ginkel in the eighth-inning role, it got hot the final six weeks -- at least, until Sewald served up the game-tying home run to Corey Seager in Game 1 of the World Series, a game the Diamondbacks lost in 11 innings. It still wasn't a deep pen, but all the off days in the postseason mean a manager can rely heavily on his top three or four relievers.
How the Reds compare: Cincinnati's bullpen was clutch in 2023, ranking second to the Brewers in win probability added. Closer Alexis Diaz wasn't quite as dominant as he was in his rookie season of 2022 and lost his command a bit in the second half, but he's hard to hit and has the stuff to go on October roll. Besides Martinez, the Reds also signed Emilio Pagan and Brent Suter, though they provide depth that will perhaps help more in the regular season than in the playoffs. Ian Gibaut and Lucas Sims should once again serve as the top setup guys to Diaz. The sleeper guy here is Fernando Cruz, a 33-year-old rookie who had a 4.98 ERA but fanned 98 batters in 66 innings and had a 2.83 FIP. His splitter was one of the best pitches in the majors last season (batters hit .094 against it). Given the youth of the rotation, the pen may once again have to carry a heavy workload, but it should be pretty solid.
Keep an eye on: Detroit Tigers. Their bullpen was just 17th in the majors in ERA, but ranked fifth in win probability. There are no big names here, but Tyler Holton (2.11 ERA), Jason Foley (2.61) and Will Vest (2.98) each posted sub-3.00 ERAs while Alex Lange took over as the closer. If Lange can develop more consistency and throw more strikes -- he walked 6.1 batters per nine -- Detroit's pen could be good enough.
In trouble: Kansas City Royals. While they had the worst bullpen in the majors in 2023, they did make additions this winter in Will Smith, Chris Stratton, John Schreiber and Nick Anderson. Those vets have all had success at various points in their careers -- Smith and Stratton were on the Rangers last season, although manager Bruce Bochy buried both in the postseason, and Smith got hot in the playoffs for Atlanta in 2021, not allowing a run in 11 innings. But I'm not sure this is the group that will lift the Royals from the depths of the AL Central and into a playoff chase.
Have farm system depth that allows for in-season improvements
The Diamondbacks had a pretty deep farm system and then added Sewald and Tommy Pham at the trade deadline. Pfaadt had been up-and-down as a rookie but pitched his best baseball of the season in the playoffs. Reliever Andrew Saalfrank came up in September and was used in high-leverage situations in October.
How the Reds compare: The Reds ranked 10th in Kiley McDaniel's farm system rankings, including six top-100 prospects -- which is pretty impressive considering all the rookies they graduated in 2023. Connor Phillips and Lyon Richardson debuted in 2023 and will provide depth options for the rotation. Candelario blocks Noelvi Marte at third base, but maybe Marte settles into the backup infielder role with Jonathan India serving as a regular DH. Pitchers Rhett Lowder -- the No. 7 pick in 2023 out of Wake Forest -- and Chase Petty are probably more on a 2025 timeline, but the Reds have the depth to make a significant trade at the deadline if needed.
Keep an eye on: Detroit Tigers. Hmm ... maybe Detroit is shaping up as the sleeper team to watch? The Tigers' farm system is third in McDaniel's rankings, although they're not going to be trading any top guys such as Jackson Jobe, Max Clark, Keith or Jace Jung. Still, there is enough depth here to make a move -- and if they are contending in the division, which is not unlikely, they'll probably need a bat for the lineup.
In trouble: Los Angeles Angels. Without Shohei Ohtani, the Angels would be more of a miracle playoff team than merely a surprise one, and it doesn't help that they have the lowest-rated farm system.
So, do the Reds still fit as the 2024 version of the Diamondbacks? It certainly seems like they do -- with De La Cruz and Greene as their pivotal players. If those two young stars can reach their potential like Arizona's young stars did last season, the Reds will have what they need to get into the playoffs ... where anything can happen. Just ask the Diamondbacks.