Spring training has arrived -- is there anything more beautiful to a baseball lover's soul than the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues? -- and it's our first chance to check out newcomers on our favorite teams.
Do the results matter? Not as much as they used to, as organizations have learned that small sample sizes from spring training aren't necessarily predictive of future performance.
Still, there are players to watch a little more closely than others this spring. So, let's dig into one for each team, zeroing in on rehabbing veterans, promising youngsters or top prospects looking to make the club's Opening Day roster. You'll see one pattern here: Hitters who need to improve their plate discipline and/or approach. While spring training stats don't tell us the whole story, strikeout and walk rates do stabilize pretty quickly, so those are some key numbers to note once the games begin.
If you play fantasy baseball, these are some of the players you'll want to focus on as well. Let's start off with the team that has the most hype coming off a winter for the ages (teams are listed in order of our winter power rankings).
Los Angeles Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
All eyes -- and a large contingent of media that the Dodgers will have to learn to adapt to -- will be on Shohei Ohtani and Yamamoto. The signs are already positive for Ohtani as he recovers from elbow surgery: In his first on-field batting practice session, he homered 10 times in 21 swings.
With Walker Buehler on a slow rollout and perhaps unlikely to see game action this spring, that leaves Yamamoto with a little additional pressure to live up to his advance billing right from the start of the season. His first bullpen session -- take this for what that's worth -- was impressive enough to send waves around Dodgers camp, with one coach telling ESPN's Alden Gonzalez, "I heard he was just dotting everywhere."
The biggest thing to watch once spring games begin is how many swings-and-misses Yamamoto is inducing. That will be the early signs on whether he can be a No. 1 starter.
Atlanta Braves: Hurston Waldrep
The No. 24 pick in the 2023 MLB draft out of Florida, Waldrep could be on the fast track to the majors thanks to an upper-90s fastball and wipeout splitter as well as an impressive pro debut, when he fanned 41 batters in 29⅓ innings and reached Triple-A. He's No. 77 on Kiley McDaniel's Top 100 prospects list, and spring training will be his first chance to impress the major league staff. There's certainly -- yes, I'll say it -- elements of Spencer Strider here, although Waldrep will have to improve the fastball command to reach the majors this season.
Houston Astros: Hunter Brown
Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia remain on the mend from last year's surgeries and Framber Valdez will hope to find his first-half groove, leaving Brown as a key player for a more stable 2024 rotation. While he struck out 178 batters in 155⅔ innings as a rookie, Brown tired in the second half and finished 11-13 with a 5.09 ERA. He's been working on a new lower-velocity slider to add to his repertoire of a curveball and harder slider/cutter. That could help him against right-handed batters, who hit .276 and slugged .499 off him.
Texas Rangers: Wyatt Langford
The No. 4 prospect in our Top 100, Langford could hit his way into an outfield/DH rotation alongside Adolis Garcia, Leody Taveras and fellow rookie Evan Carter with a hot spring, despite just 44 games in the minors. He demolished minor league pitching, and while making the Opening Day roster would be an aggressive promotion -- he played just 17 games above High-A -- when you're being compared to Austin Riley and Pete Alonso as a hitter, that doesn't sound like a stretch.
Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Holliday
As with Langford, his time in the upper minors is limited (54 games), but don't bet against the game's top prospect cracking the Opening Day roster at just 20 years old. The last 20-year-old position player to do that was Juan Soto in 2019 (and he had reached the majors as a teenager in 2018), while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2019 and Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2018 were called up in late April. The new rules incentivize starting a prospect like Holliday in the majors, however, as a Rookie of the Year award would give the Orioles an additional first-round pick. The Orioles have plenty of infield depth, so there's no need to rush Holliday, but it would be a tough decision to send him to Triple-A if he puts up good at-bats in March.
Philadelphia Phillies: Johan Rojas
He hit a surprising .302/.342/.430 in 164 plate appearances down the stretch and played a spectacular center field, but that batting average was driven by an unsustainable .410 BABIP and he had 42 strikeouts with just five walks. His struggles in the postseason -- 4-for-43 (.093) -- were a big reason the Phillies lost in the National League Championship Series. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said Rojas will have to earn the center-field job, and that will begin with better plate discipline in spring training.
New York Yankees: Carlos Rodon
Rodon might be up there as one of the most important players of the entire 2024 season. After signing a huge free agent contract in December 2022, his first season in pinstripes was a disaster, with injuries, a 6.85 ERA and 15 home runs allowed in 64⅓ innings. His fastball/wipeout slider combo made him one of MLB's best pitchers in 2021-22, but batters hit .294 and slugged .550 against the heater in 2023. Check to see if he's limiting his walks and locating the fastball in spring training after his command issues of last season.
Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero
Another top prospect -- our No. 3 overall -- to watch to see if he can crack the Opening Day roster. Caminero made a few September appearances with the Rays, not long after turning 20 and hitting .324 with 31 home runs in the minors. He doesn't have the mature plate discipline of Langford or Holliday, and the Rays have other options at both shortstop and third base (even without Wander Franco), but a hot spring from Caminero may force the Rays to be more aggressive than they normally are with their prospects.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar
This will be one of the more interesting position battles of the spring. Geraldo Perdomo is coming off a solid 2.3-WAR season as the shortstop, drawing enough walks to post a .353 OBP while playing good enough defense. Lawlar, however, has more upside both at the plate and in the field. I could see him returning to Triple-A for a couple of months (he spent most of 2023 in Double-A), but that draft-pick compensation reward is a strong incentive -- although beating out Yamamoto for rookie honors in the National League may be a tough task.
Toronto Blue Jays: Alek Manoah
There were a lot of trade rumors throughout the offseason with teams hoping to buy low on Manoah after the 2022 All-Star fell apart in 2023, but the Jays are going to keep him and expect him to be in the rotation. That certainly feels like the right decision, even if there were reportedly some clashes between Manoah and the team last season. Still, after walking 6.1 batters per nine innings last season, he'll have to throw enough strikes in spring training to earn back the organization's trust.
Seattle Mariners: Bryan Woo
Having traded away Marco Gonzales, Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani (acquired in the Ray deal), the Mariners are now counting heavily on Woo to keep his spot in the rotation. A sixth-round pick in 2021, he reached the majors less than two years later, relying on a 95 mph four-seamer that he throws from a low slot and generates a lot of swing-and-misses on. However, he threw his four-seamer and sinker more than 70% of the time in 2023, an approach that worked against right-handers but not lefties, who posted a .928 OPS off him. He's going to have to improve his changeup or develop some other off-speed pitch to improve his effectiveness against those opposite-side hitters.
Chicago Cubs: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Unless there's a late deal with Cody Bellinger, Crow-Armstrong projects as the starter in center field. The defense is elite with Gold Glove potential, but is the bat ready? He hit .283/.365/.511 between Double-A and Triple-A but struck out 129 times in 107 games. He's grown into more of a power hitter than was expected when he came out of high school, but the Cubs would love to see a little more contact in spring training. Mike Tauchman provides a serviceable Plan B if Crow-Armstrong needs more time in Triple-A.
Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Chourio
Chourio is our No. 2 overall prospect, has 30-30 potential and signed an eight-year, $82 million contract in the offseason, which might guarantee him a spot on the Opening Day roster -- but keep in mind that he doesn't turn 20 until March and has just six games in Triple-A. Given that he still needs to improve his approach -- his contact rates are fine, but his chase rate is too high -- the Brewers might not need to force the issue here. On the other hand, players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez, similarly rated prospects, more than held their own as rookies in 2022 despite concerns about their aggressive approaches at the plate (though both were also at least a year older than Chourio).
Cincinnati Reds: Frankie Montas
The Reds signed Montas to a somewhat surprising one-year, $16 million deal -- the one year is obviously a low-risk signing, but some believed it was an overpay for a pitcher who made just one appearance late last season after hurting his shoulder in 2022. Montas was very good with the A's in 2021 (3.37 ERA, 207 strikeouts in 187 innings), but that has been his only full season between injuries and a PED suspension in 2019. There's no doubt this has a chance to be a sneaky good signing, and spring training will provide the first look to see if Montas is healthy and if his stuff is back to where it was before the injury.
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton
"Oh, yeah. I'm back," Buxton said at TwinsFest in late January about returning to center field in 2024. He didn't play an inning in the outfield in 2023, as he was limited to DH duties and just 85 games due to knee pain and discomfort. He had another surgery this offseason but is ready to go for spring training.
"What excites me? I'm going back to center," he said. "As simple as that. Nothing makes me happier than playing outfield." Still, he's played 100 games in a season just once in his career, back in 2017, and spring training will be the first test to see if he's back at full speed and the knee isn't affecting him in the field or at the plate.
San Diego Padres: Yuki Matsui
The Padres will have a busy spring training. They have a new manager in Mike Shildt. They have all those new pitchers acquired in the Juan Soto trade. Manny Machado had offseason elbow surgery and probably won't play the field much (if it all). They still need a center fielder, as Shildt has indicated Fernando Tatis Jr. will remain in right field. We all know about that 2-12 record in extra-inning games, and with Josh Hader now in Houston, sorting out the bullpen pecking order will be key. The left-handed Matsui closed in Japan, where he had sub-2.00 ERAs the past three seasons, and could win the job with a nice spring.
Boston Red Sox: Lucas Giolito
Coming off a season in which he played for three different teams and allowed 41 home runs, the Red Sox signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million contract (although he has an opt-out clause after 2024). At the minimum, he projects as an innings eater in the middle of the rotation, but the Red Sox are hoping -- and needing -- something more than that. The swing-and-miss rate on Giolito's fastball has declined nearly 10% since 2020 and the slugging percentage against it has correspondingly risen. A lower spin rate on his fastball -- from the 75th percentile in 2020-21 to the 33rd last season -- creates less ride and a more hittable pitch. Let's see if Giolito and the Sox can fix what's gone awry.
New York Mets: Edwin Diaz
The Mets have a large group of veterans and youngsters to watch here -- Luis Severino coming back from a rough 2023 with the Yankees, Starling Marte looking to prove he's healthy, Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez looking to improve, Pete Alonso perhaps looking for a long-term contract -- and not to mention a new manager in Carlos Mendoza, who has a lot of moving parts to sort through. But let's keep this simple: The Mets missed Diaz big time in 2023 after he blew out his knee in the World Baseball Classic. A dominant Diaz will make the bullpen a lot deeper.
St. Louis Cardinals: Jordan Walker
Walker started off well in his rookie season, but then got sent down to the minors -- and even though he hit well enough after his return to the majors, the Cardinals were a nonfactor and Walker's season was lost in the dust of other rookies like Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson. Walker finished at .276/.342/.445 in his age-21 season, although his defense in right field was a mess. Paul Goldschmidt is still blocking him at first base, which is probably Walker's eventual position, but I believe there is a lot more here for a guy who doesn't turn 22 until May.
Detroit Tigers: Jack Flaherty
It can take us -- and baseball executives as well -- a long time to give up on a player. Flaherty had a brilliant 2019 campaign for the Cardinals when he finished fourth in the Cy Young voting and had a 0.93 ERA over his final 16 starts, one of the greatest half-seasons in MLB history. That was five years ago, however, and in the four seasons since then Flaherty has battled injuries and posted a 4.42 ERA, including 4.99 last season. The Tigers gave him a one-year, $14 million deal to see what's still here. He must improve his walk rate, and spring training will be an early sign if the command and health are there or not.
Cleveland Guardians: Brayan Rocchio
The Guardians have made two colossal misevaluations the past couple of years, trading Caminero to the Rays after the 2021 season and Nolan Jones to the Rockies after 2022. Caminero has emerged as one of the top power-hitting prospects in the sport while Jones had an excellent rookie campaign in Colorado last season. The Guardians, meanwhile, finished last in the majors in home runs in 2023. That creates the need for a player like Rocchio to turn into a valuable offensive contributor. He should be the starting shortstop unless he tanks in spring training, and while his game isn't built around power (seven home runs in 468 at-bats in Triple-A, none in 81 at-bats in the majors), he has the potential for good on-base value and contact skills.
San Francisco Giants: Jung Hoo Lee
The Korean star signed a six-year, $113 million contract -- a big deal for a player who may not produce much over-the-fence power. He's a career .340 hitter, however, with twice as many walks as strikeouts over the past three seasons, so there's a scenario where Lee develops into a leadoff hitter who gets on base, hits a bunch of doubles and plays a passable center field. Ha-Seong Kim was the last big name Korean star to come over to MLB and he struggled his first year with the Padres in 2021, so let's see if Lee can make a quicker adjustment.
Miami Marlins: Trevor Rogers
An All-Star as a rookie in 2021, Rogers made just four starts in 2023 as he dealt with a biceps strain and then a partial tear in his right lat. The Marlins resisted offseason trade overtures for the left-hander, and while he wasn't nearly as effective in 2022 (5.47 ERA) as his rookie campaign, there's still midrotation upside with his changeup and ability to induce ground balls. He should be healthy and ready to begin the season in a talented Marlins rotation (albeit one that will be without Sandy Alcantara).
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes
The top overall pick in the 2023 draft, Skenes' season at LSU was so dominant scouts heralded him as the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. He made just five brief appearances after signing with Pittsburgh -- for a total of 6.2 innings -- so while he is undoubtedly one of the Pirates' top five starters right now, he'll likely start the season in the minors. Even Strasburg made 11 starts in the minors the year after getting drafted before the Nationals called him up. Teams nowadays are more cautious with their pitching prospects than they were in 2010, so you know the Pirates have an innings limit in mind for Skenes. Still, if he crushes it in spring training, there will be a craving to start him in the majors.
Los Angeles Angels: Nolan Schanuel
Schanuel, the No. 11 pick out of Florida Atlantic, ascended almost immediately to the majors, hitting .275/.402/.330 in 132 plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The on-base skills look legit, but will he develop any power? His exit velocity readings were extremely low (85.4 mph average) -- more along the lines of a utility infielder than a first baseman. He's 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, so in theory there's power potential here, and he did hit 19 home runs in 59 games at FAU. Spring training stats can be misleading, but let's see if he turns on a few more pitches than he did in his debut season.
Kansas City Royals: MJ Melendez
Melendez emerged as a top prospect after crushing 41 home runs in the minors in 2021, but his first two seasons in the majors have been a mixed bag as he hit .227/.314/.396 -- but an above-average walk rate (74th percentile) and hard-hit rate (91st percentile) in 2023 still make him intriguing if he can figure things out. He's no longer a catcher, and despite some athleticism, he's been lousy in the outfield. He needs to cut down on the strikeouts and maybe his upside is someone along the lines of Joc Pederson, which the Royals would take at this point.
Washington Nationals: CJ Abrams
Abrams made some nice strides in his first full season with the Nationals, especially in adding some power (18 home runs) and going an impressive 47-for-51 stealing bases, but there is still room for improvement in his plate discipline and defense. Remember, he's still just 23 years old and played only 114 games in the minors, so he remains a relatively inexperienced professional. A big key to me: He hit .227 against four-seam fastballs, so he'll have to do more damage in that area or pitchers will learn to hit him with the hard stuff.
Chicago White Sox: Oscar Colas
One of the top international free agents in 2022, Colas hit well enough in the minors in 2022 to generate a fair amount of hype heading into 2023 but struggled to a .216/.257/.314 line in 75 games with the White Sox. Outside of a strong arm in right field, there wasn't much to like: poor plate discipline, below-average speed, not enough power. He's 25, so it's not like you can project much growth here, and you shouldn't expect much. Indeed, the White Sox traded for a couple other left-handed hitting outfielders in Dominic Fletcher and Zach DeLoach, so Colas will be fighting just to make the team.
Colorado Rockies: Ezequiel Tovar
Tovar had an overlooked rookie season, showing some power (56 extra-base hits) and playing excellent defense. His 2.5 WAR was higher than more hyped rookies like Elly De La Cruz or Josh Jung. Still, a .253/.287/.408 line in Coors Field isn't going to earn you any accolades, so there is work to be done, starting with -- yes, plate discipline. He had 166 strikeouts and just 25 walks. Look, walking is never going to be part of his game, but he ran a 12% strikeout rate in the minors in 2021 and 21% in 2022 before whiffing 27% of the time with the Rockies. His defense will keep him in the starting lineup, but he needs to stop swinging at everything between Denver and Grand Junction or he won't improve the batting average and OBP.
Oakland Athletics: Mason Miller
Miller is Oakland's top pitching prospect, a 6-foot-5 righty who can touch 100 mph but has had trouble staying healthy, including missing four months in 2023 with a UCL strain in his elbow. When he did pitch, he showed a wipeout slider and potential for a plus changeup while fanning 38 in 33⅓ innings with the A's. With his health in mind, however, and the desire to limit his innings, the A's plan to use Miller out of the pen in 2024 (while not completely closing the door on starting him in the future). He has the stuff to pitch in a high-leverage role, and fantasy owners will certainly be keen to see if he wins the closer's job.