Welcome to the way-way-too-early All-Stars. We're about six months out from the All-Star Game at Globe Life Field in Arlington and, well, we have some time on our hands to dig into some potential rosters.
As always, selecting All-Star rosters is a bit of a jigsaw puzzle, with 32-man rosters composed of 20 position players and 12 pitchers (eight starters, four relievers) and one representative needed from each franchise -- and we're trying to predict the fan starters along the way.
We also have a few big-name free agents still unsigned, particularly Cy Young winner Blake Snell and top-10 MVP finisher Cody Bellinger -- although neither were All-Stars last season. I'm not sure I'd pick them anyway: Snell has historically pitched better in the second half and I'm not predicting Bellinger to have a repeat of his 2023 season no matter where he ends up.
One thing to pay attention to: A year ago in this piece, I noted that the best position players in 2022 were older than they had been in a decade, with the average age of the top 30 players via Baseball-Reference WAR the oldest since 2014. That didn't happen in 2023, with the average age of 26.7 the second lowest for the top 30 players in the past decade (trailing only 2019). Only five of the top 30 were in their 30s -- Mookie Betts, Marcus Semien, Freddie Freeman, Yandy Diaz and Jose Ramirez -- compared to 10 in 2022. Let's see if that trend holds in 2024 and if new 30-year-olds like Matt Olson, Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor can repeat their strong 2023 seasons.
Before we dig in, here's a quick self-review from last season: 31 of my 64 players actually made the All-Star team, with a few of those only as injury replacements, so 50% would be a good result. Among last year's less notable All-Stars: Brent Rooker, Whit Merrifield, Austin Hays, Elias Diaz, Geraldo Perdomo, Bryce Elder, Alex Cobb, Josiah Gray, Mitch Keller and Michael Lorenzen. Try this yourself and see how you did come July.
National League
Catcher: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
Backup: William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
Smith has been a productive regular since he debuted in 2019, hitting .260/.355/.465 over the past three seasons while averaging 23 home runs and 80 RBIs and earning his first All-Star appearance last season. His offensive game has settled in at a solid-not-superstar level like I once expected, but he's the safest bet among NL catchers and he's going to have a ton of RBI opportunities hitting behind Betts, Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. I'll go with Contreras as the backup over his brother Willson Contreras, J.T. Realmuto, Gabriel Moreno and Sean Murphy, last year's starter who completely collapsed offensively in the second half (.159).
First base: Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
Backups: Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers; Olson, Atlanta Braves
Harper's full-time move to first base crowds this position even further. Freeman has started four of the past five contests for the NL, with Paul Goldschmidt winning the fan vote in his MVP season in 2022. Harper's power stroke wasn't clicking initially last season when he first returned from Tommy John surgery, but he hit .296/.413/.583 with 18 home runs in 70 games in the second half. He last started an All-Star Game in 2018 -- not even making the team at all when he eventually won MVP in 2021 -- but I'm predicting he's locked in from the get-go and wins the vote.
Second base: Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Backup: Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs
Only two players have started an All-Star Game at both second base and the outfield: Pete Rose, who started at second in 1965 and started in the outfield three times (and twice at third base and twice at first base); and Alfonso Soriano, who started three times at second and once in left field. Betts should make it three as he transitions full time to the infield. The difference, of course, is Rose and Soriano started out as second basemen before moving to different positions while Betts is doing it in the opposite direction. The backup options run deep: Luis Arraez, Ozzie Albies, Bryson Stott, Ketel Marte, Ha-Seong Kim, Matt McLain. Hoerner had an excellent under-the-radar season in 2023 with 5.1 WAR, a Gold Glove, 98 runs and 43 stolen bases. The players vote in the reserves, so they'll have to appreciate Hoerner's all-around value over Albies' power or Arraez's .300 average.
Third base: Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Backup: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Nolan Arenado was the starter last year, but the eight-time All-Star faded in the second half and, at 33 years old, will have to rebound from his worst full season since his rookie year in 2013. I'll bet on the young guys. Riley was a backup the past two seasons, but his consistency -- three straight seasons with at least 33 home runs, including 37 in 2023 -- and fan support from Braves fans make him the favorite, with Machado, still just 31, a better bet than Arenado to rebound from a slightly down season.
Shortstop: Lindor, New York Mets
Backups: Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies; Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
Is Lindor now underrated? His first season with the Mets in 2021 certainly didn't go well, but he's now had back-to-back top-10 MVP finishes (ninth both times), has missed three games in two years and has put up 11.5 WAR over the past two seasons, seventh best among position players. However, he hit only .254, which clouds the perception that he's still extremely valuable, despite his power, durability and plus defense.
We all know the Turner story by now: awful first half with the Phillies then a big turnaround the final two months. Overall, he ended up with a respectable .266/.320/.459 line, including 26 home runs and a perfect 30-for-30 stealing bases in the regular season (although Moreno finally got him in the NLCS). He should play better from the start in 2024. De La Cruz is more of a long shot, but I need a Reds representative -- and if De La Cruz is halfway decent, he's the type of player you want to fit on to the roster. The Reds will be getting a lot of attention heading into the season and might even be a trendy pick to win the NL Central, but the fact that they don't have any clear All-Star candidates is one signal that maybe that bandwagon needs to slow down a bit.
Outfield: Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves; Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks; Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Backups: Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves; Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals; Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
With Betts moving to second base, that opens up a third slot behind Acuna and Carroll, who should be no-brainers if they match last year's stats. I'm going with Tatis, who didn't match what he had done before his injury and PED suspension wiped out his 2022 season, but still put up 5.5 WAR in 2023 thanks in part to some off-the-charts defensive metrics. It's also worth noting: His average exit velocity declined a significant 2 mph from 2021 while his hard-hit rate fell from 55.6% to 49.3%. According to Statcast, however, he also had some bad luck in the batting average department, hitting .257 versus an expected average of .281. I think the offense improves some in 2024.
Now, for the backups ... it turns out the NL isn't very deep in strong All-Star candidates. That explains why the backups last year included Nick Castellanos (1.5 WAR) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (3.0 WAR), while Joc Pederson started in 2021. Nootbaar and Jones end up here as the only representatives from their teams, although I have both making it on merit. No, I'm not going to pick Kris Bryant again to represent the Rockies.
Designated hitter: Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Backup: Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Not many options to choose from here. Marcell Ozuna had a better season last year than Schwarber, so he would be a viable alternative, as well.
Starting pitcher: Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Others: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies; Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers; Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants; Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers; Max Fried, Atlanta Braves; Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers; Eury Perez, Miami Marlins; Gray, Washington Nationals
As you'll see below, there are more starting pitcher options in the NL than the AL. I couldn't even find room for Zac Gallen here and he's finished third and fifth in the Cy Young voting the past two seasons. Strider is coming off a 20-win season while leading the majors with 281 strikeouts and holding batters to a .210 average. His ERA, however, was 3.86, a run higher than his component numbers would suggest. That could be random or it could be that he loses something with runners on base: Five of the 22 home runs he allowed were three-run home runs and he also gave up a grand slam. With a runner on third and two outs, batters went 10-for-27 with three home runs. I think he improves in this area and gets the ERA back under 3.00.
For Yamamoto and Glasnow, the question might not be their performance, but how much they'll pitch. The Dodgers just added James Paxton to the rotation, so it's all pointing to the Dodgers using a six-man rotation to save on the wear and tear of all their starters, including the injury-prone Glasnow and Yamamoto, who is used to starting just once a week in Japan. Perez and Gray make it as reps for their teams, with Perez edging out Jesus Luzardo and Gray making what would be his second straight All-Star appearance.
Relievers: Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers; Edwin Diaz, New York Mets; David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates; Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers
The relievers are all pretty straightforward: Williams and Bednar were two of the best closers in the business last year and Diaz will hopefully be recovered from his knee injury. Phillips gets the final spot, coming off two dominating seasons where he's posted a 1.59 ERA. Of pitchers with at least 100 innings over the past two seasons, only Williams and Ryan Helsley have allowed a lower OPS.
American League
Catcher: Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Backup: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Rangers fans voted Jonah Heim in as the starter a year ago, so we have to keep in mind that's a possibility again, but Rutschman is the better player (no knock against Heim, who was a deserving Gold Glove winner). I loved the way O's manager Brandon Hyde used Rutschman last season, maximizing his playing time by starting him 104 games at catcher and 45 games at DH. The Orioles' record when Rutschman is in the starting lineup the past two seasons: 154-102. Raleigh is my backup, a durable catcher (second in the majors in innings caught) coming off a 30-homer season.
First base: Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
Backup: Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
A couple of years ago, it looked like we would be penciling Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in as the AL starter at first base for the next decade -- or at least as long as he remained in a Blue Jays uniform. He set an age-22 record in 2021 with 48 home runs while leading the AL in OBP and slugging percentage. He hasn't matched those numbers the past two seasons, however, and while he started the All-Star Game in 2022, he was only the backup to Diaz in 2023. The projection systems forecast better numbers because they still see the youth, contact ability and elite exit velocity, but based on the past two seasons, I'm not convinced we're going to see numbers close to 2021.
So, in what is generally a pretty mediocre group of first basemen to pick from, I'm going with Casas. Mea culpa: I once compared Casas to Justin Smoak (who, mind you, did once start an All-Star Game). After a slow start, Casas turned into the hitter that scouts had projected him to be, slashing .307/.398/.568 over his final 78 games. I don't know if he's that good, but he has excellent plate discipline, plus power and -- unlike Guerrero, who pounds the ball into the ground too often -- optimal launch angle.
Second base: Semien, Texas Rangers
Backup: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Is it time to start thinking of Semien as a potential Hall of Famer? I realize he doesn't have that aura around him -- not like Altuve does -- but he's up to 41.8 career WAR and is still going strong, playing every game last season and finishing third in the MVP voting (his third third-place finish, which is more than a lot of Hall of Famers can claim). He's one of 21 middle infielders with three 7-WAR seasons and all of the others are in the Hall of Fame except Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and the criminally underrated Bobby Grich -- a player, like Semien, who did everything well.
Third base: Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
Backup: Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
Jung had a credible rookie season, hitting .266/.315/.467 with 23 home runs in 122 games and finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting. He's got real power, the ability to barrel up the baseball (82nd percentile in hard-hit rate) and plays a nice third base. Do I think he's the best third baseman in the AL? No. He has a lot of swing-and-miss and needs to improve his chase rate, but given that four Rangers were fan-elected starters in last year's All-Star Game, I expect Rangers fans to be even more fervent in their voting this year coming off a World Series title. I have Jung winning that vote and Devers taking the backup spot over Ramirez and Alex Bregman.
Shortstop: Seager, Texas Rangers
Backups: Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles; Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
It has to be Seager, right? He was so good last season he finished second in the MVP voting even though he played just 119 games, hitting a monstrous .327/.390/.623 with 33 home runs. He got a lot of help from his home park (remember when everyone thought Globe Life Field was going to be a pitcher's park?), hitting 23 home runs and slugging .707 at home, but his game plays anywhere. He's perfected the art of proper aggressiveness, often attacking the first pitch but not chasing it out of the zone, and he has good contact ability with two strikes.
Seager has to stay healthy, however, because he has plenty of competition. Henderson is already a star, splitting his time almost equally between shortstop and third base as a rookie and racking up 6.2 WAR, Rookie of the Year honors and a top-10 MVP finish. I have him playing more shortstop, but if top prospect Jackson Holliday is indeed ready, just slide Henderson over as an All-Star third baseman. Witt is the only Royals representative, but he makes it on merit as one of the most dynamic players in the league after hitting 30 home runs and stealing 49 bases last season while making big improvement on defense. I couldn't squeeze J.P. Crawford or Bo Bichette on here, and both were top-30 position players in the majors a season ago.
Outfield: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees; Juan Soto, New York Yankees; Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Backups: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels; Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros; Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox; Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
The last time Trout wasn't elected as a starter for the All-Star Game was 2012 -- his rookie season, when the fans went with Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson and Josh Hamilton. If Trout is healthy -- he played just 82 games last season -- it's easy to assume the fans will vote him again, but his numbers were down in 2023 (.263/.367/.490), so that may no longer be a sure thing. Now, he's also just one season removed from slugging .630 with 40 home runs, so it's a little premature to say age and injuries are catching up to him, but I'm picking him only as a reserve.
Now that Ohtani is in the NL, Soto might end up as my preseason AL MVP pick. I'm not exactly going out on a limb there, but I think he's poised for a huge season, beyond his usual .400-plus OBP. He hit .307/.422/.604 on the road last season, so, in theory, you can double those numbers and have a 40-homer, 1.000-plus OPS season. Certainly, he'll pick up a few cheap home runs at Yankee Stadium. Rodriguez went 30-30 with 100-plus RBIs and 100-plus runs, but it took a big second half to get there. He still needs a little more consistency and to cut down on his strikeouts to take that next step to MVP-level performer; I believe he will.
My final backup nod goes to Carter over teammate Adolis Garcia, who was an All-Star last season and then drove in 22 runs in 15 postseason games, so maybe picking Carter is a bit of a reach. Garcia will certainly have the better power numbers, but Carter looks like an on-base machine with great defense in left field. Maybe manager Bruce Bochy hits him leadoff, but if the Rangers keep the Semien-Seager duo at the top, that puts Carter somewhere in the middle of the lineup, which means a lot of RBIs as well.
Designated hitter: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Backup: Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox
Alvarez is the easy call here without Ohtani to fight him for the fan vote, but who's the backup? This is my annual reminder that it's silly to allocate two roster spots to designated hitters when more than half the league doesn't even employ a full-time designated hitter. This could be one of the unsigned guys still out there in free agency -- J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, Justin Turner -- but let's go with Yoshida, who was really good in the first half last season, but not so good in the second half. Sleeper pick: Rookie Wyatt Langford of the Rangers, who looks ready to crush it in the majors after getting drafted just last June.
Starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Others: Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays; George Kirby, Seattle Mariners; Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins; Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers; Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles; Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays; Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
Look, if it's Cole versus the field to bet on who will start the All-Star Game, you'd take the field, but for an exercise like this, Cole is the only logical choice -- the only AL starter who has been consistently good over a string of seasons. In fact, only five AL pitchers have put together back-to-back 3.0-WAR seasons and Cole actually isn't one of them (he had 2.5 WAR in 2022, although he led the league in strikeouts): Ohtani, Gausman, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and Framber Valdez.
Think of some of the other candidates here: Justin Verlander has lost a little zip on his fastball; Valdez fell apart in the second half last season; Shane McClanahan, the 2022 All-Star starter, is out for the season; Sonny Gray signed with the Cardinals; Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom will miss at least the first half; and Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off injuries. So, I'm betting on a bunch of the younger starters here, with Rodriguez and Williams having breakout sophomore seasons and Kirby making it over teammates Castillo and Gilbert.
Relievers: Josh Hader, Houston Astros; Bryan Abreu, Houston Astros; Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins; Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics
For the bullpen, Hader is the easy choice as he's made five straight All-Star appearances and should make it six. I like his new teammate, Abreu, to make it as a setup guy, as he has delivered back-to-back sub-2.00 ERAs and has electric strikeout stuff. Good luck rallying in the late innings against the Astros. Miller makes it as the A's rep; he's a starting pitching prospect but has had trouble staying healthy. The A's will reportedly use him out of the pen in 2024, where his 98-mph fastball might start touching triple-digits with regularity.