With Cody Bellinger reportedly returning to the Chicago Cubs, there are still more big-name Scott Boras clients unsigned, even as spring training games have started: pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, third baseman Matt Chapman and DH J.D. Martinez. For Snell and Montgomery, they will be at risk of not being ready for Opening Day if they don't sign this week. It's less urgent for Chapman and Martinez, but with Bellinger taking an $80 million deal, it seems as if Boras might have misread this market.
Some of this could also be an industry reaction to the number of last offseason's megadeals that are already in danger of not working out: Xander Bogaerts is already moving off shortstop; Brandon Nimmo is already moving off center field, at least on a part-time basis; Carlos Correa hit .230 and had the worst season of his career; Carlos Rodon was injured and ineffective; and Jacob deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery.
Still, like Bellinger, all four of the remaining Boras clients had good seasons last year. There are still wins to be added to this winter's repertoire, just at the right price -- and probably below what Boras expected back in November.
We've addressed the risks involved for these players throughout the offseason, so let's look at the teams that could benefit the most from signing them.
New York Yankees
Are the Yankees open to adding another starting pitcher?
"I think we have a championship-caliber team right now, but we haven't stopped looking to improve, and we never will," owner Hal Steinbrenner said last week. "Given where we are payroll-wise, any addition to the club is going to be a costly one, but I'm still willing to consider anything that comes my way."
That sounds more like ownerspeak than "we're going to sign Blake Snell." Keep in mind that the highest tax threshold for 2024 is $297 million. According to FanGraphs, the Yankees' current estimated payroll is $296 million. Since the Yankees are a repeat tax offender, any dollar amount over $297 million is taxed at 110%. If the Yankees pay Snell $25 million for 2024, it's essentially an additional $25 million. And remember, Steinbrenner is also the owner who last spring said, "You shouldn't have to have a $300 million payroll to win a world championship."
Signing Snell is all about how comfortable the Yankees are with their rotation depth. They are already five deep with Gerrit Cole, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt, Rodon and Nestor Cortes, though Rodon and Cortes missed significant time with injuries last season and Stroman also battled a rib injury in the second half. All are healthy now, but the Yankees traded away much of their starting pitching depth in the Juan Soto trade, so next in line would be Luke Weaver, rookies Will Warren and Chase Hampton, or Luis Gil, who is returning from Tommy John surgery.
Via FanGraphs, the Yankees have the sixth best projected rotation in the majors. Snell is difficult to project, but if he pitched at last year's level -- which is probably unlikely -- you're talking about a four-win upgrade over the bottom of the staff. In the ultra-competitive American League East, that could be the difference between winning the division and not even making the playoffs.
New York Mets
With Kodai Senga receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right shoulder and being shut down for three weeks, the Mets have additional concerns over a rotation that already didn't project that well -- 24th via FanGraphs. There's certainly the potential for more upside than that if Luis Severino bounces back, and there's decent depth with the likes of Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi, but Snell would obviously be an upgrade.
The Mets, however, are in the same position as the Yankees, sitting on an estimated $315 million in payroll. Even owner Steve Cohen has his limits, plus the Mets aren't exactly all-in like they were a year ago. One thing to factor in: Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and Adrian Houser are all free agents after 2024. The Mets might not like the additional tax hit for 2024 with Snell or Montgomery, but they're going to need a starter for 2025 anyway.
You could also toss out Martinez's name here, as the Mets' projected designated hitter production ranks near the bottom of the majors -- DJ Stewart, maybe some Mark Vientos, some Francisco Alvarez when he's not catching. It's a hodgepodge, and Martinez could be worth two wins if he comes close to matching last year's numbers.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants remain the team most likely to sign one of these guys -- maybe even two of them. Their rotation ranks 15th in projected value, but that's largely because Logan Webb has one of the best projections of any starter in the majors. No other starter is projected for even 2.0 WAR, and with Alex Cobb out for the start of the season and Robbie Ray not returning until somewhere around midseason, there is no clear No. 2 pitcher in the rotation. Snell provides more upside, but Montgomery's track record of durability -- 30 starts each of the past three seasons -- might be the better fit. In the wide, wide open National League wild-card race, a two-win improvement could get the Giants into the postseason.
Chapman is also a possible fit, although the Giants are decent enough at third base with some combination of J.D. Davis and Wilmer Flores. Chapman, however, would be a huge defensive upgrade over either of those two, although with Jorge Soler signed as the designated hitter, that would push Davis or Flores to the bench (aside from platooning at first base with LaMonte Wade). Still, improving the bench would be a good thing -- the Giants gave a lot of at-bats to unproductive hitters in 2023. Chapman could be as much as a three-win upgrade once you factor in the better bench.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are a big-market team that is not only about $21 million below last year's payroll, but about $60 million below the $237 million tax threshold. They don't have a single pitcher on the staff who threw at least 100 innings last season with an ERA under 4.00. Their top five, in some order: Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck ... with very little obvious depth behind them. They could certainly use a hard worker like Montgomery, given their inability in recent seasons to find pitchers who can stay out there for 30 starts.
But are they willing to spend? It doesn't appear so. Last month at the team's Winter Wonderland event, CEO Sam Kennedy said the team will "probably" have a lower payroll than last season. "We were engaged with some long-term, high-profile free agent discussions that we didn't match up on. And we're going to stay disciplined with this approach to make sure that we have this growing core of young players. And that's really important, because we think that's going to position us for the best chance to be successful for the long term."
Maybe there's still room to squeeze in Snell or Montgomery. Maybe they were willing to spend for Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but nobody else. Or maybe Liverpool FC (whose principal owner is Red Sox owner John Henry) is short on cash right now.
Chicago Cubs
Are the Cubs done after Bellinger or could they still look to add Chapman?
The payroll is about $227 million right now, so signing Chapman would push them over the tax threshold -- but this is a big-market team. Right now, third base projects as a mix of Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morel, although it's not clear who would get the most playing time. The Cubs want to get Morel's bat in the lineup, but he doesn't really have the glove to play there on an every-day basis. He's best utilized as a designated hitter and utility guy who fills in in both the infield and outfield, which is an odd use for a young player with potential but probably the best fit for this roster.
Chapman wouldn't be a huge upgrade -- maybe one win over that trio -- but imagine a defense with Chapman, shortstop Dansby Swanson, second baseman Nico Hoerner, Bellinger at first, Ian Happ in left and Pete Crow-Armstrong in center. That's four Gold Glove winners from last year and potential Gold Glovers in Bellinger and Crow-Armstrong.
Baltimore Orioles
I don't expect the Orioles to do anything. But the rotation is suddenly very thin, even after trading for Corbin Burnes, with Kyle Bradish out with a UCL sprain and John Means behind schedule. Both will start the season on the injured list. The payroll is only at $96 million, but we know the Orioles don't want to get locked into any long-term deals. If Snell has to take a shorter deal like Bellinger did, that maybe puts the Orioles in play. Imagine a playoff rotation with Burnes, Snell, Grayson Rodriguez and a hopefully healthy Bradish.
And even Martinez makes some sense, as the Orioles could use some right-handed power. They have plenty of options at DH and will probably just rotate players through the position, including Adley Rutschman. But they could play Martinez 120 games or so and still get Rutschman some designated hitter time and let Ryan O'Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle platoon at first base, creating a deeper lineup.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners fell two wins short in the AL West and one win short of a wild-card spot, so they have a lot to gain from making even a small upgrade. Their third-base plan is a platoon of Josh Rojas and Luis Urias, which projects to 2.3 WAR, 19th in the majors. That's not awful, but Rojas and Urias also haven't been the most consistent of players, and that projection predicts a bounce-back off a terrible season from Urias, which is hardly a guarantee. Chapman would be an upgrade to the tune of maybe two wins. Consider as well that the Mariners aren't a good defensive team: J.P. Crawford is reliable but lacks range at shortstop; Jorge Polanco is below average at second; Ty France doesn't move well at first; and the outfield corners aren't great. Outside of Julio Rodriguez, there isn't really a plus defender, so Chapman would be a nice fit in that regard.
Alas ... the Mariners have been crying that they're all out of nickels and dimes. The payroll is at $135 million -- a low figure for a mid-market franchise -- and about $5 million less than a year ago, but Seattle is one of the teams worried about local TV revenue (even though it owns its network and isn't part of the Diamond Sports Group case). An MLB executive told ESPN's Buster Olney that if Bellinger only got $80 million, there's no way Chapman gets that, so maybe the Mariners will consider him if the price is low enough. Given its status in a tough division, Seattle might have more to gain by signing Chapman than any other move on the board.
Texas Rangers
We don't want to ignore the defending champs, especially since their rotation only projects as No. 20 -- meaning there's room for improvement, in other words. Except the Rangers are hoping to get Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle back in the second half, so if they hang in there before the All-Star break, the rotation could be just fine down the stretch. Still, the entire season matters and the AL playoff field is loaded at the top, so bringing back Montgomery would be an improvement over Andrew Heaney or Cody Bradford, the likely 4/5 starters to begin the season.
Toronto Blue Jays
Don't rule out Chapman going back to the Blue Jays, although there haven't been any strong rumors of that happening for a couple of months. The Jays do have a long list of potential third basemen -- Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Justin Turner, Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, Leo Jimenez, Orelvis Martinez ... heck, maybe Rance Mulliniks and Kelly Gruber -- but the overall sum of those parts isn't that impressive. Chapman would be a two-win upgrade and that would free up Kiner-Falefa to fill in elsewhere as a super utility guy.
Miami Marlins
I know, I know ... but they need offense (FanGraphs projects their designated hitter value as 27th in the majors) and Martinez is from South Florida. Aside from spending actual money to improve it, I'm not sure what the Marlins intend to do in the infield. An alignment of Tim Anderson at shortstop, Luis Arraez at second and Josh Bell at first (and Jake Burger at third) might have the worst collective range in the majors, so they might want to play Anderson more at second, Arraez at first, figure out shortstop with Jon Berti or Jacob Amaya and move Bell to designated hitter ... which would block Martinez.