Four of the original top 10 offseason MLB free agents are still unsigned -- Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman, all of whom are clients of agent Scott Boras -- plus a bunch of other interesting players of note, including 13 of Kiley McDaniel's top 50 free agents heading into the offseason.
Let's do this one more time and dig into the top options still out there on the market, taking into account why each free agent is worth it or not and their best fits.
Blake Snell
McDaniel's free agent ranking: No. 3
Original projection: 6 years, $150 million
Why he's worth it: It's not often you get the opportunity to sign a two-time Cy Young winner in the prime of his career.
Why he's not: Inconsistency and durability concerns, plus a high walk rate in 2023 even as he won the National League Cy Young Award. While he pitched 180 innings last season with a 2.25 ERA, he averaged just 128 innings in 2021 and '22 with a 3.79 ERA.
Fits best for:
Snell is the ultimate risk/reward, which is why I think he's a better fit for a team that is already pretty confident about its playoff chances and believes Snell could be the final ingredient needed for a World Series run -- think the New York Yankees or Philadelphia Phillies, although the Phillies may be more focused on extending Zack Wheeler. The Yankees reportedly made an offer to Snell along the lines of the Carlos Rodon deal (six years, $162 million), which would give them a potentially dominant rotation if everyone stays healthy. The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels are certainly possibilities.
I wonder if there's a sleeper team in here. Maybe the Washington Nationals, who have done several big deals in the past with Boras clients. The Nationals don't look ready to compete in 2024, but think of the Texas Rangers, who signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in 2022 despite coming off a 102-loss season. They are a valuable lesson that it can pay to go big in free agency even if your competitive cycle is a year or two away.
Cody Bellinger
McDaniel's free agent ranking: No. 4
Original projection: 7 years, $147 million
Why he's worth it: The 2019 NL MVP winner had a superb bounce-back season with the Chicago Cubs in 2023, hitting .307 with 26 home runs in 130 games. He's still just 28 years old and offers valuable defensive versatility, with the ability to play center field or first base.
Why he's not: As with Snell, there's a huge degree of risk here. His batted-ball data from last season suggests he got a little lucky, and teams can't completely ignore 2021-22, when he was one of the worst hitters in baseball. Was he finally healthy in 2023? More focused in a contract year? Better because of some swing changes? There's just a lot of unpredictability involved here.
Fits best for: A big-market team that needs to take a chance.
All offseason, the indicators have pointed to the Cubs or Giants as the most likely destination -- although it remains to see if San Francisco would still add another bat after reports that the Giants have agreed to a deal with Jorge Soler.
While the Cubs haven't really replaced Bellinger's production (they did acquire Michael Busch from the Los Angeles Dodgers, who could end up at first base), there is one difference between the two clubs: The Cubs have an outstanding farm system (McDaniel rates it second best) and appear on the rise, while the Giants have a middle-of-the-pack system and are stuck in mediocrity. The Cubs have the better chance of winning without Bellinger and have a top prospect in Pete Crow-Armstrong ready for center field. That leaves the Giants in a position where they should be more willing to take a gamble on Bellinger and hope he can be a consistent four- to five-win player moving forward like he was in 2023.
I'll keep the Phillies as a dark horse -- even though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski seems OK with the outfield situation -- because frankly, other than when the team posted a .907 OPS in August, the offense wasn't all that special last season. A deeper reach would be the San Diego Padres, who have trimmed their payroll nearly $100 million from last season, have just two outfielders on their 40-man roster and desperately need a center fielder.
Jordan Montgomery
McDaniel's free agent ranking: No. 6
Original projection: 5 years, $106 million
Why he's worth it: You know what you're getting, as Montgomery has averaged 174 innings the past three seasons with ERAs of 3.83, 3.48 and 3.20.
Why he's not: He does have a Tommy John surgery in his past, and his strikeout rates are below average -- and that's a lot of money for a pitcher who isn't really a No. 1-type starter. Plus, that final dollar total may end up being a lot higher than $106 million.
Fits best for: A team that desires a quality, durable starter to help stabilize the rotation.
A return to the Rangers made the most sense at the start of the offseason, but their regional sports network issues put a little bit of a clamp on their wallet. Don't rule out a return, but Montgomery would certainly be a nice fit for the Yankees or Boston Red Sox -- and it does feel like the Phillies still need to make a big move somewhere (besides re-signing Aaron Nola). We have to again mention the Giants, as they had just two starters make 20 starts in 2023, and one -- Alex Cobb -- is already going to miss the start of the season.
Matt Chapman
McDaniel's free agent ranking: No. 8
Original projection: 4 years, $100 million
Why he's worth it: He's a Gold Glove third baseman coming off a 4.4-WAR season and has averaged 3.8 WAR the past three seasons.
Why he's not: His numbers cratered in 2023 after a hot April, he strikes out a ton (28% of the time in 2023) and he turns 31 in April. While he draws walks and has elite exit velocity metrics, he's a .226 hitter the past three seasons and is possibly entering the decline phase of his career.
Fits best for: A contending team that needs a third baseman.
Not to repeat ourselves here, but this once again leads us to the Giants and Cubs. It has been difficult finding a landing spot for Chapman, which helps explain why he's still unsigned. The Giants and Cubs project as middle of the pack in third-base production, so they do have alternatives, although Chapman projects as an upgrade in the near term. We could throw the Toronto Blue Jays in there as well, but they have 11 infielders on their 40-man roster. As for other teams' third-base situations: The Yankees have DJ LeMahieu; the Arizona Diamondbacks traded for Eugenio Suarez and the Seattle Mariners replaced Suarez with Luis Urias; and the New York Mets want to see what Brett Baty can do.
None of those players are as good as Chapman, but those teams aren't signing him, so we go back to the Giants or Cubs unless a stealth team -- such as the Nationals or Detroit Tigers -- steps up.
Michael Lorenzen
McDaniel's free agent ranking: No. 25
Original projection: 2 years, $28 million
Why he's worth it: He was a 2023 All-Star with the Tigers, although his numbers slipped a bit after going to the Phillies (despite pitching a no-hitter for them). He projects as a competent back-end starter.
Why he's not: His strikeout rate is low, in the 14th percentile, and last season was the first since his rookie season in 2015 that he topped 100 innings, so he may work best as a swingman rather than a 150-inning rotation guy.
Fits best for: Everybody needs pitching, right?
Lorenzen is probably headed for a team in the bottom half of its division -- one in need of some depth in the rotation at a won't-break-the-bank salary. I'm looking at the Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Nationals or Angels. If the Red Sox don't sign Snell or Montgomery, they may dip down to Lorenzen. The Rangers could use some depth as they wait for Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom to get healthy, and then they could move Lorenzen to the bullpen in the second half if those guys return. The Tigers have signed Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda but also saw Lorenzen at his best for half a season.
J.D. Martinez
McDaniel's free agent ranking: No. 28
Original projection: 2 years, $25 million
Why he's worth it: Martinez continues to put up numbers, hitting .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs in 113 games for the Dodgers last season. His batted-ball metrics remained among the best of the best: 96th percentile expected slugging percentage, 98th percentile barrel rate, 98th percentile hard-hit rate. Even if he slips a bit, he should remain productive.
Why he's not: He's 36 and, well, you never know when that bat will slow down. His swing-and-miss and strikeout rates have continued to deteriorate (both bottom 10% in the majors in 2023), so further collapse in that area could offset the hard contact.
Fits best for: A team that desires better production from the DH spot. That includes the Mets, Marlins, Angels and Nationals, and maybe we throw the Tigers in here as well, depending on whether they view Kerry Carpenter as more of an outfield option or a DH.
I also wonder if the Baltimore Orioles could jump in on one of these DHs, although they like to rotate Adley Rutschman into that spot (he started 45 games there last season), and it won't be easy luring a right-handed power hitter to Camden Yards. Still, Martinez could start 120 games or so at the DH spot like he did with the Dodgers and help the Baltimore offense.
Mike Clevinger
McDaniel's free agent ranking: No. 32
Original projection: 2 years, $21 million
Why he's worth it: Teams can still dream of his 2017-19 level of performance, when he went 38-18 with a 2.96 ERA for Cleveland over a three-season span. He's similar in value to Lorenzen, but perhaps with a little more upside.
Why he's not: It has been a long time since he was at his peak, and the stuff has ticked down since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2022, plus he's now 33. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher, so he needs to go to the right team in the right park.
Fits best for: Again -- everybody needs pitching, right?
I would include the same list of teams as Lorenzen. And we should definitely throw in the Giants for either player, even if they do land one of Snell or Montgomery. The Yankees' current group thins out after the top five, although prospects Will Warren and Chase Hampton could make an impact later in the season. Still, New York could be looking for some veteran depth as injury insurance if it doesn't sign Snell or Montgomery.
Brandon Belt
McDaniel's free agent ranking: No. 46
Original projection: 1 year, $11.5 million
Why he's worth it: He raked with the Blue Jays last season, hitting .254/.369/.490 overall and was even better against right-handers.
Why he's not: He's pretty much a platoon DH/1B at this time, gets injured a lot, turns 36 in April and is one season removed from a .213/.326/.350 line with the Giants.
Fits best for: A team looking for some left-handed power.
Let's see, run that list of teams needing a DH again: Mets, Marlins, Angels, Padres. The Colorado Rockies could use a first baseman but will probably run with a young guy who can't hit. Cubs? Milwaukee Brewers? Lots of possibilities here for a player who has been a good hitter in three of the past four seasons.
Tommy Pham
McDaniel's free agent ranking: No. 50
Original projection: 1 year, $10 million
Why he's worth it: He's coming off a respectable 2023 season, hitting .256/.328/.446 while stealing 22 bases in 25 attempts. His Statcast metrics even suggest he was a little unlucky with his results at the plate.
Why he's not: Pham is another guy for whom age is a factor, as he turns 36 in March. While he produced 1.5 WAR in 2023, he was at just 0.3 WAR in 2022.
Fits best for: After a career-worst strikeout rate in 2022, Pham cut his rate by nearly 5% and produced better numbers in 2023. While he was more or less still an everyday player last season, playing 129 games, at this point in his career, he probably fits best as a fourth outfielder/part-time DH on a contender or a starter on a noncontender who may look to flip him at the deadline (as the Reds and Mets did the past two seasons). Of course, teams don't really want to pay $10 million for a third or fourth outfielder, but I keep looking at the Padres, with their lack of outfielders, or the Phillies, who could play him in left and move Brandon Marsh back to center.
Other free agents of note: Michael A. Taylor (No. 38), Hyun-Jin Ryu (No. 40), Tim Anderson (No. 42), Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario, Gio Urshela, Enrique Hernandez, Mike Moustakas, Noah Syndergaard, Joey Votto