We're nearly two months into the offseason, and some big names are still out there in free agency -- perhaps a few more significant trades are coming, too, once those dominoes fall.
But as the calendar turns, I find myself looking ahead to 2024, studying each team and seeing how they're trying to improve.
For each of the 30 MLB teams, we'll look at one key statistic from 2023 and address what it means for 2024.
We'll start with the American League and tackle the National League on Wednesday.
Baltimore Orioles
The number: 33
That's Felix Bautista's 2023 save total. We could have listed his 1.48 ERA. Or his 16.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Or even his 8-2 win-loss record. The point is that Bautista dominated until injuring his elbow in late August, and he'll miss all of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. With Bautista and Yennier Cano leading the way, the Orioles were 30-16 in one-run games and 11-6 in extra-inning games. Bautista wasn't invulnerable: He did blow six save opportunities (only one of which was in extra innings with the automatic runner), so his overall save percentage was a mediocre 85%, and the Orioles ended up losing four of those six games. They were also 80-48 before he was injured (.625 winning percentage) and 21-13 after (.618 winning percentage).
That doesn't mean they won't miss him in 2024. They signed Craig Kimbrel to a one-year contract (with a club option) to presumably take over as the closer and, well ... the problem here is that even if Kimbrel ends up being OK in the regular season, the postseason is another matter. He had an up-and-down season with the Phillies, allowing 10 home runs in 69 innings and going 23-for-28 in save chances. No Phillies fan trusted him entering the playoffs and, sure enough, he lost two games in the NLCS. As the Orioles look to repeat their division title, Kimbrel is an interesting closer to bet on.
Boston Red Sox
The number: 1.034
That's Triston Casas' second-half OPS as he hit .317/.417/.617 with 15 home runs in 54 games. Triple his numbers and you get 162 games, 45 home runs, 90 walks and 114 RBIs. Sounds like a potential MVP candidate. I'll admit: I thought Casas had been overrated a bit as a prospect, as he hit just .269 in the minors and flashed more power projection than actual power. His slow start seemed to reaffirm that he might be more future Justin Smoak than future All-Star.
Then came his breakout, and the metrics back up the idea that he could be a star hitter: He controls the strike zone with a low chase rate (86th percentile) and reasonably low strikeout rates (29th percentile) with above-average hard-hit rates (80th percentile). Given his size and hitting style, we can start making those Freddie Freeman comps if he returns healthy from the shoulder injury that ended his season in mid-September, and he does this over a full season. Throw in Jarren Duran's breakout season and other young players like Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, plus prospects like Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke, who might reach the big leagues in 2024, and I like this offense. Now, about that pitching staff ...
Chicago White Sox
The number: 15th
That's where the White Sox ranked among the 15 AL teams in walks last season: Dead last. They were 14th in 2022. They were also last in 2019, 14th in 2018, 13th in 2017 ... and, well, other than ranking second in 2021 -- a season in which they won 93 games -- the White Sox haven't otherwise ranked in the top half of the AL in walks since 2008. To tweak a line from "The Natural:" Not walking is a disease, as contagious as polio. The 2023 White Sox averaged just 3.96 runs while posting a .291 on-base percentage, the franchise's worst since 1968. It's hard to score runs if you don't have runners on base.
Until the White Sox address this, they'll remain irrelevant. The pushing to relevancy isn't going to happen this offseason. The additions have been Paul DeJong and Nicky Lopez -- light-hitting placeholders for the middle infield. But even their best hitters aren't getting on base enough: Luis Robert had a .315 OBP, and while he's a wonderful player, his 172/30 strikeout-to-walk ratio holds him back. Andrew Vaughn had just 36 walks in 615 plate appearances. Eloy Jimenez's chase rate was in the bottom 10th percentile. Looking ahead, top prospect Colson Montgomery and catcher Edgar Quero, acquired in the Lucas Giolito trade, show promise in their plate discipline. Hopefully they won't be afflicted with White Sox-itis once they reach the majors.
Cleveland Guardians
The number: 18
Cleveland outfielders hit 18 home runs. Total. From all eight players who played in the outfield. Steven Kwan and Will Brennan led the way with five home runs apiece. This total, in 2023-style baseball, is almost unfathomable. The last team in a full season with so few home runs from its outfielders was the 1989 Astros, who hit 18 in the cavernous Astrodome. The only outfield in the expansion era with fewer home runs in a full season was the 1976 White Sox, with 17. It's not an impossible idea to use an outfield that excels at catching the ball -- the Guardians won 92 games in 2022 with just 28 home runs from their outfielders -- but everything else has to go right, and it didn't in 2023.
Don't expect much improvement next season. The Guardians are one of the teams caught in the Diamond Sports Group regional sports network fallout and the expectation is Cleveland is one of the teams Diamond will shed at some point this offseason. For now, it looks like another season of Myles Straw in center, a Will Brennan/Ramon Laureano platoon in right and Gold Glover Steven Kwan in left (who at least posted a .340 OBP and had 36 doubles). They'll hope 1B/DH Kyle Manzardo, acquired for Aaron Civale last trade deadline, offers some punch. It doesn't help that Jose Ramirez has seen his home run output drop from 36 in 2021 to 29 to 24. Their best hope might be to turn Shane Bieber and/or Emmanuel Clase into offensive help.
Detroit Tigers
The number: 3.97
The Tigers' pitching staff was effective in the second half, ranking seventh in the majors with a 3.97 ERA. Some of the other numbers were solid as well: Fifth in lowest OPS, 13th in strikeout rate, 11th in walk rate. Tarik Skubal led the rotation with a 3.11 ERA and impressive 32% strikeout rate, Matt Manning (3.49 ERA in 10 starts) and Reese Olson (3.97 ERA in 13 starts) were pretty good and the bullpen was solid. The Tigers did lose Eduardo Rodriguez in free agency, but it's interesting that Detroit has signed two starters in Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty while adding only Mark Canha to an offense that needs a lot of help.
I don't mind the approach. There weren't many good bats out there in free agency -- maybe the Tigers will add one of the DHs like J.D. Martinez or Jorge Soler -- and injuries have plagued the rotation in recent seasons. With the additions of Maeda (on a two-year deal) and Flaherty (for one season) plus the return of Casey Mize, the Tigers are building reasonable depth. The lack of moves in the infield perhaps signifies that the front office believes Colt Keith (.306, 27 home runs in the minors) will be ready for Opening Day, either at third or second, and Jace Jung (28 home runs between Class A and Double-A) could be ready in the second half. The AL Central is wide open and the Tigers are making small improvements around the margins that should help.
Houston Astros
The number: 3
The Astros had three pitchers make at least 29 starts in 2023 -- Hunter Brown with 29, Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez with 31. While we know Houston has long had a high-powered offense, the rotation's ability to perform year after year has also kept the Astros on top. In 2022, they had five pitchers make at least 25 starts. In 2021, three made at least 28 and six made at least 20. In 2019, three made at least 33. In 2018, four made at least 30. It's not always the same group, but there is always depth. That said, for the first time in a long time, the rotation was a little wobbly last season. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia got injured. Brown and Javier were healthy but combined for a 4.82 ERA. They had to trade for Justin Verlander to fill in the gaps.
That's why I've been a little surprised to hear the Valdez trade rumors. He still has two years left until free agency and while he faded down the stretch and lost all three postseason starts, he still provided 198 innings. That would be difficult to replace, even with Verlander on board for a full season. At the same time, the Astros have to start thinking ahead: Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are free agents after 2024, Kyle Tucker after 2025, Yordan Alvarez starts getting more expensive and Jose Abreu and McCullers are making good money without matching production. They're going to have to start thinking how to reconfigure the roster and that might mean trading Valdez.
Kansas City Royals
The number: 5.23
That's the bullpen ERA. Only the Rockies' was higher, but the Royals were also last in bullpen win probability added. I know you'll find this hard to believe, but the Royals have struggled to build consistent quality bullpens (to be fair, the Royals have had many problems for a long time), which is sort of the lifeblood for any small-market team since you can do that on the cheap. In 2022, they had Joel Payamps but released him that August -- he went on to have a good year with the Brewers in 2023. Gabe Speier was on the 2022 team, then surfaced with the Mariners in 2023 and had a good season. In Kansas City, Dylan Coleman and Taylor Clarke were effective in 2022, not so much in 2023.
The Royals are trying to do something this offseason. They signed Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha for the rotation and Will Smith and Chris Stratton for the pen. They traded away Coleman and Clarke, traded for former Rays/Braves reliever Nick Anderson and picked up an interesting arm in Matt Sauer in the Rule 5 draft. Will any of this add up to anything? Other than Sauer, those other five pitchers are all at least 32. I'm a little more optimistic about Lugo and Wacha than the relievers. Smith's stuff is slowly deteriorating along with his strikeout rate, and the Rangers kept him out of high-leverage moments in the playoffs. Stratton is fine and durable, more of a No. 4/5 reliever on a good team (the Rangers also largely avoided him in the postseason). Anderson has had issues staying healthy. In the end, will the pen be better? Well, it's hard to be as bad as it was in 2023.
Los Angeles Angels
The number: 80
The Shohei Ohtani era is over in Anaheim (pause here for a moment of silence for Angels fans) and now the Angels have to figure out how to replace him. As a hitter, he was about 54 runs better than average given his playing time; as a pitcher, he was about 26 runs better than average in his 132 innings. Add it up and that's 80 runs, so if the Angels replace Ohtani even with average performers, that's about eight fewer wins right there.
Let's see who's out there. J.D. Martinez would make a nice DH. He was 17 runs better than the average hitter last year. Maybe they sign Blake Snell; that's 41 runs above average. Maybe they also sign Cody Bellinger. He was 23 runs better than average at the plate. Add it up, and that's 81 runs ... that's what it would take to replace Ohtani. And that's assuming all three are as good as they were in 2023, which is unlikely. It means the Angels need Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel to develop into major contributors, Anthony Rendon to somehow remain on the field and be productive at age 34, Mike Trout to stay healthy, and a couple of starters like Reid Detmers and Patrick Sandoval to take a step forward.
Minnesota Twins
The number: 76
The Twins led the majors with 76 quality starts, ranking second in rotation ERA behind the Padres and first in rotation strikeout rate at 26.3% (tied with the Rays). They capped off an 87-win season with the wild-card series win over the Blue Jays -- snapping that 18-game postseason losing streak -- before losing to the Astros in the ALDS. But you know where this is going: Sonny Gray (second in the Cy Young voting) is now with the Cardinals and Kenta Maeda is with the Tigers. That's 52 starts the Twins will have to replace -- and apparently no room in the budget.
Where will those starts come from? Chris Paddack returned late last season for a couple of relief appearances and is one candidate. That feels like a reach to me; his one good season was his rookie campaign in 2019, before batters adjusted to his primarily fastball/changeup repertoire. Louie Varland might get a shot. Prospects David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson would probably be next in line. If they trade Max Kepler and/or Jorge Polanco (set to make $20.5 million between them), that might clear some payroll space to sign a veteran starter.
New York Yankees
The number: .304
Remember the big theme in "Moneyball?" On-base percentage. It seems incredible now that understanding the value of getting on base was perceived as a market inefficiency just 20 years ago, but so it was. But before Billy Beane there was Gene Michael, the secret cog in the Yankees organization back then. Michael understood the value of OBP, and from 1993 to 2012, the Yankees ranked in the top three in the AL in all but two seasons (when they still ranked top six). After some lean years in the mid-2010s, the arrival of Aaron Judge in 2017 boosted the Yankees offense, and from 2017 through 2022, they ranked no lower than fifth and led the AL in runs in 2019, 2020 and 2022. It all collapsed in 2023: The Yankees were 27th(!) in the majors in OBP, with their .304 mark their lowest since 1990. Only the lowly Royals, A's and White Sox got on base less often.
So welcome aboard, Juan Soto. The Yankees gave up a lot of pitching depth to acquire Soto -- and ultimately failed to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, leaving the staff heavily dependent on a return to form from Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes -- so the offense needs to be much improved. Obviously, Soto will provide a huge impact. Last season, Yankees left fielders hit .220/.299/.368 and created about 63 runs. Soto, playing all 162 games for the Padres, hit .275/.410/.519 and created about 127 runs. There's no reason to expect anything less this year, so that alone could be a 60-run improvement -- but it still doesn't get the Yankees to the MLB average in runs. Alex Verdugo should help, but there are major questions about Anthony Rizzo's health and Giancarlo Stanton's place in the lineup, and Anthony Volpe needs time to improve. The offense will be better, but it remains to be seen if this is a group that can again be one of the best in the league.
Oakland Athletics
The numbers: 27.3%, 29.2%, 31.2%, 32.7%, 34.3%
Yes, the A's are so interesting they get five numbers rather than one. Those are the strikeout rates for Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker and Ryan Noda. Noda (121 OPS+), Rooker (130 OPS+) and Gelof (137 OPS+) were very good in 2023. Langeliers flashed some power but hit .205 with a .268 OBP. Soderstrom, the highest-rated prospect of the group, struggled big time in his debut, hitting .160 in 138 plate appearances.
Of course, there's a reason I listed the strikeout rates. That's a lot of swings and misses. The MLB average strikeout rate for 2023 was 22.7%. Rooker and Noda were both older guys playing regularly for the first time; Rooker in his age-28 season, Noda 27. Congrats to them for taking advantage of the opportunity and performing, but given their ages and high strikeout rates, I'm not sure they'll do it again. Noda at least adds a high walk rate. Langeliers will be 26, so the clock is ticking on whether he'll ever hit. Soderstrom is just 22, but his numbers in Triple-A were not impressive either. Gelof is the guy most likely to cut his strikeout rate, although his expected numbers via Statcast weren't as impressive as his actual results. This season will tell us whether this is a group that will be part of the next winning A's team -- maybe in Las Vegas in a couple of years.
Seattle Mariners
The number: 87
The Mariners struck out 10 or more times in 87 games -- only the Twins had more such games (90) and more total strikeouts. Interestingly, the Mariners went 43-44 in those games, a .494 winning percentage, which was much higher than the overall MLB winning percentage of .413 in such games (the Mariners were seven wins better than average). Still, the strikeouts were excessive, so gone are Eugenio Suarez (second in the majors in strikeouts), Teoscar Hernandez (third) and Jarred Kelenic (higher strikeout rate than Suarez or Hernandez). Also gone are three potential power sources, leaving only Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh as 20-homer hitters from 2023. Of course, these moves weren't just about cutting down on strikeouts, but, as we've since learned, also about shedding payroll (the Mariners dumped the contracts of Evan White and Marco Gonzales in the Kelenic trade).
The Mariners reportedly have room to add about $25 million to the payroll, although nobody trusts this ownership group to spend it. Either way, the lineup needs a DH and at least one right-handed-hitting outfielder, and that's assuming the club is OK with Luis Urias and Josh Rojas at third and second. Keep in mind that the Mariners have spent $0 in free agency so far -- and that Jerry Dipoto's biggest expenditure for a free agent hitter was $7 million for AJ Pollock. Justin Turner would be a nice fit at DH, although he's a little risky at 39. J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins and Jorge Soler are more strikeout-prone alternatives. (Note: The Mariners have reached a two-year deal with Mitch Garver). Outfield options are more limited -- Michael A. Taylor is defense-first and doesn't help the offense, which means ... Tommy Pham? Adam Duvall? Trade possibilities include Max Kepler and Josh Naylor. None of these options push the Mariners forward in any significant direction. Players were frustrated with management at the end of last season -- Raleigh in particular spoke out -- and that frustration will only grow if additions aren't made.
Tampa Bay Rays
The number: 118
That was the Rays' weighted runs created (wRC+, league and park adjusted) ... and that's an impressive number. Since the expansion era began in 1961 (not including 2020), that's tied for the ninth highest. So ... did the Rays really have that kind of historic offense? Only Isaac Paredes hit 30 home runs. Nobody drove in 100 runs. Nobody scored 100 runs. They did score 860 as a team, however, fourth most in the majors. Tropicana Field plays as a slight pitcher's park, so that's factored into wRC+. They mashed 230 home runs and were also one of the best baserunning teams (which isn't even factored in wRC+). I'm not sure it was a top-10 offense of the past 60 years, but the depth was impressive.
Can they do it again? Everyone is back except Manuel Margot (easily replaceable), and we don't know yet about Wander Franco. There is more talent on the way, with Junior Caminero first and foremost. He doesn't turn 21 until July but might replace Franco at shortstop after hitting .324/.384/.591 with 31 home runs in Class A and Double-A. That's a big jump, but he's viewed as one of the top hitting prospects in the minors. Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda spent time with the Rays in 2023 and could be above-average hitters. Even if guys like Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe regress, there is plenty of depth here, although some might be traded away for catching or pitching help.
Texas Rangers
The number: 0.48
The Rangers allowed nearly half a run less per game in the postseason than they did in the regular season -- and went 13-4 to win the first World Series in franchise history. Now they'll try to become the first team since the 2000 Yankees to repeat as World Series champs. The offense will once again be loaded. Everyone except Mitch Garver is back, and they'll have Evan Carter up in the majors for a full season -- plus Wyatt Langford, who hit .360/.480/.677 with more walks than strikeouts in 44 games with four minor league teams after getting drafted.
But the pitching ... how will it shape up? After all, this is a team that barely made the playoffs with 90 wins. There's no guarantee that will get them into the postseason next year. The big news has been Max Scherzer's back surgery that will keep him out until midseason. They signed Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract, but he's coming off Tommy John surgery and also out until midseason. Jacob deGrom is out until somewhere around midseason, maybe August. They haven't re-signed Jordan Montgomery, as once expected -- perhaps because the Rangers are another of those teams with uncertainty about their local TV deal. They still have Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford, plus prospects Owen White and Jack Leiter to fill in as needed until everyone -- hopefully -- gets healthy. The offense gives this team a high floor, but there's certainly a scenario where the rotation collapses after more injuries in the first half, a thin bullpen isn't able to pick up the slack, and they're too far out of it by the time Scherzer & Co. return. There's also a scenario where the offense absolutely explodes, the pitching is good enough and then gets better, and the Rangers enter the playoffs as the World Series favorite.
Toronto Blue Jays
The number: Minus-55
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. created about 55 fewer runs at the plate in 2023 than he did in his near-MVP season of 2021. Adjust that for a slightly lower run environment in 2023, and he still was about 40 runs worse. The Blue Jays' lineup as a whole fell off last season, in fact, and after their pursuit of Ohtani fell short, maybe their best hope to improve the offense is for Guerrero to get back to where he was in 2021. After all, he's still young -- he was only 22 then. Since integration in 1947, Guerrero's age-22 season trails only Bryce Harper and Juan Soto in terms of batting runs produced -- and ahead of hitters like Mike Trout, Eddie Mathews, Miguel Cabrera, Mickey Mantle and Albert Pujols. He appeared to be on his way to becoming a legendary slugger.
So what happened? Everyone has a theory. That was the second of the livelier-ball seasons (along with 2021), so that juiced Guerrero's numbers a bit. His chase rate was 24.5% that season but has crept up to 30% the past two years. He hasn't made quite as much consistent hard contact, perhaps related to his swing decisions. He hasn't hit at Rogers Centre -- just .238/.324/.391 in 2023 compared to .332/.425/.708 in 2021. He needs to get in better shape or focus better. It doesn't make sense for somebody who was so good at 22 to fall off like this (although Harper has also failed to match his age-22 numbers, coming close in his other MVP season in 2021). If I drew up a list of the 10 most important players for 2024, Guerrero might be No. 1.